39 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

BTW Mweb, you pointed out in the other thread that his FB rate was still well below most of the years...of course, what you failed to mention is that his LD% was the second highest of his career.

In the years where his FB rate as in the low to mid 40s, his LD rate was in the mid to upper teens.

Last year, his LD% was over 24%.

[SportsGuy]

How can you read what I've been saying and claim I'm ignoring his injuries?

The case against Haren is just as evident to most others as you think the case is against McCarthy, and it was laid out very well by Dave Cameron. I can't help it that you choose to be dismissive of it.

Once again, I'm willing to considering both pitchers and the medicals and cost would be determining factors.

Im sorry, I directed that post at you but it wasn't neccassarily directed AT you. I havent seen you say you would give him that kind of money. Just poor wording there on my part.

[mweb08]

BTW Mweb, you pointed out in the other thread that his FB rate was still well below most of the years...of course, what you failed to mention is that his LD% was the second highest of his career.

In the years where his FB rate as in the low to mid 40s, his LD rate was in the mid to upper teens.

Last year, his LD% was over 24%.

I'm aware. I linked to and referred to Keith Law talking about him where he mentioned that McCarthy was leaving his pitches up a little more last year, that resulted in more line drives. Law seems to think he has a good chance of getting more groundballs in the future.

[mweb08]

Im sorry, I directed that post at you but it wasn't neccassarily directed AT you. I havent seen you say you would give him that kind of money. Just poor wording there on my part.

Regardless of what I'd give him, I've been very clear that I'm not confident in either he or Haren due to injury concerns and seeing how they check out medically would be a determining factor for me along with cost.

[Mackus]

It comes down to their medicals and cost for me, neither of which we know a great deal about at the moment.

I think this is obviously the key.

Anyone stating a strong, or even mild, preference one way or the other, is making assumptions about both these guys will get that we just don't know enough about to really be stating with any confidence. Particualry the medicals, since we all can at least have a reasonable guess at what the market will likely bear out for these guys, but none of us have any real idea about how severe the injuries either of these guys are facing, we're just making assumptions based on related, but not necessarily correlating, factors.

[SportsGuy]

I think this is obviously the key.

Anyone stating a strong, or even mild, preference one way or the other, is making assumptions about both these guys will get that we just don't know enough about to really be stating with any confidence. Particualry the medicals, since we all can at least have a reasonable guess at what the market will likely bear out for these guys, but none of us have any real idea about how severe the injuries either of these guys are facing, we're just making assumptions based on related, but not necessarily correlating, factors.

Even if McCarthy were not coming off that injury plagued year, I wouldn't want him for anything.

The injuries just add to that.

[mweb08]

I think this is obviously the key.

Anyone stating a strong, or even mild, preference one way or the other, is making assumptions about both these guys will get that we just don't know enough about to really be stating with any confidence. Particualry the medicals, since we all can at least have a reasonable guess at what the market will likely bear out for these guys, but none of us have any real idea about how severe the injuries either of these guys are facing, we're just making assumptions based on related, but not necessarily correlating, factors.

Indeed.

I will say that if I were confident in the health of both of them, I would very much prefer Haren.

I am very skeptical of him at the moment though, and there is good reason for that.

[Mackus]

Even if McCarthy were not coming off that injury plagued year, I wouldn't want him for anything.

The injuries just add to that.

Well then that's either just a ridiculous opinion or, almost certainly, hyperbole.

How could you turn down McCarthy for nothing (assuming by nothing you mean an MLB-minimum deal)? At the very least, it'd be a freaking bargain to get one more option to be a decent back-end starter. I certainly am not convinced that our current stable of SP will survive the 2013 season in one piece. Adding one more guy to the mix can't be anything but a good thing.

Of course you would take him for "nothing", anyone would. That's not exactly a relevant opinion, though, since he'll likely get a few million at least and maybe closer to double figures. Not being interested at those price levels is at least a valid opinion.

[SportsGuy]

Well then that's either just a ridiculous opinion or, almost certainly, hyperbole.

How could you turn down McCarthy for nothing (assuming by nothing you mean an MLB-minimum deal)? At the very least, it'd be a freaking bargain to get one more option to be a decent back-end starter. I certainly am not convinced that our current stable of SP will survive the 2013 season in one piece. Adding one more guy to the mix can't be anything but a good thing.

Of course you would take him for "nothing", anyone would. That's not exactly a relevant opinion, though, since he'll likely get a few million at least and maybe closer to double figures. Not being interested at those price levels is at least a valid opinion.

No, i would literally not want him for anything.

Ok, maybe I would take him on a minor league contract and see how things play out in ST but, as I said, there isn't any starter(or potential starter) currently on the team that I would want McCarthy starting over.

So yes, I basically wouldn't want him for anything.

Hammel, Tillman, Britton, Matusz, Gonzo, etc...I would want all of them starting over him, so therefore I see no reason to give him guaranteed money.

[Kevin Ebert]

One point I think is being missed here is McCarthy changed his pitch mix in 2011. He threw away his 4 seam fastball, slider and change - and started throwing a 2 seamer and a cutter. I've seen interviews from him stating that he made a conscious change to his pitch mix to try to get groundballs. Since he's basically been a different pitcher the last 2 seasons, I don't think his performance before that is really relevant. Obviously the injuries still matter.

He's had a walk rate under 2 BB/9 innings for each of the last 2 years. I really like pitchers with plus control like that. And I do think his injuries contributed to him leaving the ball up a little more in 2012, which would cause his ground ball rate to decrease some what. If he's healthy next year, I think you'll see his ground ball rate to get back into the 45% range.

Here's his Brooks Baseball page which will show how he changed his pitch mix in 2011.

http://brooksbasebal... ... yer=435221

[mweb08]

Well then that's either just a ridiculous opinion or, almost certainly, hyperbole.

Sadly, it's the former.

[SportsGuy]

One point I think is being missed here is McCarthy changed his pitch mix in 2011. He threw away his 4 seam fastball, slider and change - and started throwing a 2 seamer and a cutter. I've seen interviews from him stating that he made a conscious change to his pitch mix to try to get groundballs. Since he's basically been a different pitcher the last 2 seasons, I don't think his performance before that is really relevant. Obviously the injuries still matter.

He's had a walk rate under 2 BB/9 innings for each of the last 2 years. I really like pitchers with plus control like that. And I do think his injuries contributed to him leaving the ball up a little more in 2012, which would cause his ground ball rate to decrease some what. If he's healthy next year, I think you'll see his ground ball rate to get back into the 45% range.

Here's his Brooks Baseball page which will show how he changed his pitch mix in 2011.

http://brooksbasebal... ... yer=435221

Im aware he changed his style and went to the 2 seamer.

The problem is, while it worked in 2011 and he got a lot more GBs, that rate dropped a lot in 2012 and his LD% also went way up.

So, which pitcher is he? And since we don't know and he has that injury history, why on earth would you give him 2/20?

[mweb08]

One point I think is being missed here is McCarthy changed his pitch mix in 2011. He threw away his 4 seam fastball, slider and change - and started throwing a 2 seamer and a cutter. I've seen interviews from him stating that he made a conscious change to his pitch mix to try to get groundballs. Since he's basically been a different pitcher the last 2 seasons, I don't think his performance before that is really relevant. Obviously the injuries still matter.

He's had a walk rate under 2 BB/9 innings for each of the last 2 years. I really like pitchers with plus control like that. And I do think his injuries contributed to him leaving the ball up a little more in 2012, which would cause his ground ball rate to decrease some what. If he's healthy next year, I think you'll see his ground ball rate to get back into the 45% range.

Here's his Brooks Baseball page which will show how he changed his pitch mix in 2011.

http://brooksbasebal... ... yer=435221

Yep. Good post.

I knew he had changed his style as a pitcher, but didn't articulate that much or well, and didn't realize it was to this extent.

[mweb08]

Im aware he changed his style and went to the 2 seamer.

The problem is, while it worked in 2011 and he got a lot more GBs, that rate dropped a lot in 2012 and his LD% also went way up.

So, which pitcher is he? And since we don't know and he has that injury history, why on earth would you give him 2/20?

I think it would be fair to say that his injury issues possibly limited his effectiveness similarly to Haren's injury limiting his.

Law implied that was a factor.

[SportsGuy]

I think it would be fair to say that his injury issues possibly limited his effectiveness similarly to Haren's injury limiting his.

Law implied that was a factor.

Ok, thats fair..I agree that its possible that it was a factor. Of course, that goes back to the injury issues but whatever.

Now, what that leaves you is what we saw last year but with more groundballs.

Still not the type of pitcher I have interest in signing, especially at the salaries talked about on here.

[mweb08]

Ok, thats fair..I agree that its possible that it was a factor. Of course, that goes back to the injury issues but whatever.

Now, what that leaves you is what we saw last year but with more groundballs.

Still not the type of pitcher I have interest in signing, especially at the salaries talked about on here.

If he's a 3ish WAR pitcher, which if his medicals check out, is a good possibility imo, then he'll be worth it.

Unless someone brings in a new point, I don't think I have anything else to say on this because again, we don't know much about his medical outlook and I want a clearer idea of what the market is for him and other SPs.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: A Brandon McCarthy Thought Experiment
http://www.fangraphs...ght-experiment/

[Mike B]

FanGraphs: A Brandon McCarthy Thought Experiment
http://www.fangraphs...ght-experiment/

Definitely interesting, but his injuries and success in the best pitchers park in the majors have to make a team cautious.

[SportsGuy]

https://mobile.twitt... ... 0511320064

Signing with Zona.

I'm betting he didn't get 5/75 Jeff.

[SportsGuy]

2 year deal...15.5M.