24 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Look at it this way. How would you like our chances if the playoffs started today?

[makoman]

Look at it this way. How would you like our chances if the playoffs started today?

From 6/27-7/4 they lost 6 of 7 and generally looked like crap. Scored 1 run or less 3 times. They proceeded to win 8 in a row. Things can change quickly in baseball. Momentum is the next days starting pitcher and all. But yeah, I'd rather they be hitting, sure.

[85Knight]

In 2002-2004 a wild card team won each World Series, and from 2002-2007 7 of the 12 series participants were wild cards. Sure, it may be possible to win a World Series as a division winner, but you'd rather be the wild card team.

Or, maybe 3 years (or 6, or 7) isn't necessarily statistically significant.

No one prefers to go into the playoffs cold, but I'm not convinced being mildly hot (and I'm not sure that .500 is even hot for a team that was .624 going into Sept) necessarily means much.

It's not about being the division winner vs. the wildcard. It's how you're playing going into the playoffs. Even though I must say this new format is gonna give the division winners even more of an advantage and I think as we accumulate data the numbers will become more skewed.

I think we're over thinking this with fancy statistics. The only point being made is that you'd rather go into the playoffs playing well vs. not. If the playoffs started today would you rather be playing like the O's are or the Rays? It's really that simple.

[Mackus]

I'd rather go into the playoffs playing well. That's different than claiming doing so gives you an actual historically better chance of success in the playoffs (beyond what you'd expect from your overall season record including September). The second thing is not true.

[85Knight]

I'd rather go into the playoffs playing well. That's different than claiming doing so gives you an actual historically better chance of success in the playoffs (beyond what you'd expect from your overall season record including September). The second thing is not true.

No one ever said that. I've been trying to get you to see that but you've been stuck on that point. The only reason the September record was brought up was as a reference to how teams were performing going into the playoffs.