24 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Orioles understand importance of division title

https://www.masnspor...-division-title

[85Knight]

Have a strong week and I think we can start to see the finish line. Giving up the division lead with 20 games left would be a huge disappointment and a bad way to go into the playoffs.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I don’t ever expect a sweep but I think if we can take 2/3 from St Louis and split with Tampa we will be looking pretty good.

We are about to become huge Blue Jay fans (gross) as they are fighting for their lives and play Tampa 6 times down the stretch.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I don’t ever expect a sweep but I think if we can take 2/3 from St Louis and split with Tampa we will be looking pretty good.

We are about to become huge Blue Jay fans (gross) as they are fighting for their lives and play Tampa 6 times down the stretch.

Yup. Def will be, or should be, more intense playoff type games for TB playing Tor.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Most ideal world Tampa loses enough to Toronto to win us the division but it’s still not enough to give Toronto a playoff berth.

That is a fine needle to thread

Jays and Rangers start a four gamer this week. Massive

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Rangers and Sea also play 6 more times. Obv division is the sole focus but the playoffs are wrapped up. Worst case scenario prob is #1 WC. Would take a horrible finish to not at least be the #1 WC

[DuffMan]

Birds are in first, I'm rooting for nobody else but them.  We keep winning and it won't matter.  Jays are punks and I have no problems with them making the playoffs, we can send them home to cry in their Molson's

[BSLSteveBirrer]

At this point I root for any team that helps the O's win the division. No shame in that. And the easier time the O's have the rest of the way the better. The bullpen needs a serious reset/rest before October.

[85Knight]

This is admittedly a snapshot in time, and sometimes we can overrate how well a team is playing in the moment and miss the big picture. For the most part, however, teams that reach the World Series do play well the final month -- although, not always. Since 2016, three of the 16 World Series participants had a losing record the final month (the 2022 Phillies were 14-17, the 2017 Dodgers were 13-17 and the 2015 Royals were 15-17). The other 13 teams were an average of eight games over .500 the final month.

https://www.espn.com...23-world-series

[Mackus]

This is admittedly a snapshot in time, and sometimes we can overrate how well a team is playing in the moment and miss the big picture. For the most part, however, teams that reach the World Series do play well the final month -- although, not always. Since 2016, three of the 16 World Series participants had a losing record the final month (the 2022 Phillies were 14-17, the 2017 Dodgers were 13-17 and the 2015 Royals were 15-17). The other 13 teams were an average of eight games over .500 the final month.

https://www.espn.com...23-world-series

 

I imagine that the two World Series teams tend to be over .500 in every month, not just September, at about the same rate they've found for September here.

[85Knight]

I imagine that the two World Series teams tend to be over .500 in every month, not just September, at about the same rate they've found for September here.

That wasn't the point. It's better to head into the playoffs hot vs. limping in in the final month. Teams that typically go to the World Series go to the playoffs on a winning note and that's what the data shows. If the O's have a losing month or go in as a wildcard or both it's gonna feel a lot different after having the best record in the AL since mid July. I can't understand why this is even an argument.

[Mackus]

That wasn't the point. It's better to head into the playoffs hot vs. limping in in the final month. Teams that typically go to the World Series go to the playoffs on a winning note and that's what the data shows.

No, the data you've presented does not show that.

You've shown a quirk, like if 12 of 16 World Series teams had won their first game after the All Star Break or something. You haven't shown whether that quirk is meaningful to actually getting to the World Series or not.

[Mackus]

I've read previously that a hot September correlates to postseason performance but much less so that overall record does. Meaning, a 98-win team with a 12-15 September record is better positioned than a 92-win team with a 17-10 record or the like.

If all else is equal, sure, finish hot. But "all else equal" is rarely the case.

[makoman]

So where is the line for hot? Why is it .500? Wouldn’t .600 be better? Does it only matter for WS winners?

The 2016 team was 17-12 after August, 2014 team was 17-10, 2012 was 20-11, for whatever all that’s worth. Those records were better than the Jays and Royals of those years, tied with the Yankees. Didn’t seem to mean much.

[85Knight]

I've read previously that a hot September correlates to postseason performance but much less so that overall record does. Meaning, a 98-win team with a 12-15 September record is better positioned than a 92-win team with a 17-10 record or the like.

If all else is equal, sure, finish hot. But "all else equal" is rarely the case.

Did you even read the article? Since 2016 of the teams that made the World Series 13 had winning records in September with an average finish of 8 games over .500 in the month. Only 3 have had losing records in September. How can you argue against this?

I'd rather finish like the winning group did to increase my odds of getting to the World Series. How much more simple can I put it? I think you keep missing the conversation. We're only talking about September and the finish. Not the rest of the season.

[Mackus]

Did you even read the article? Since 2016 of the teams that made the World Series 13 had winning records in September with an average finish of 8 games over .500 in the month. Only 3 have had losing records in September. How can you argue against this?

Because I understand how correlation works. This isn't it.

It's interesting, but it's not the same as identifying actual statistical trends.

[makoman]

Did you even read the article? Since 2016 of the teams that made the World Series 13 had winning records in September with an average finish of 8 games over .500 in the month. Only 3 have had losing records in September. How can you argue against this?

I'd rather finish like the winning group did to increase my odds of getting to the World Series. How much more simple can I put it? I think you keep missing the conversation. We're only talking about September and the finish. Not the rest of the season.

Do you really think that if they end up 98-64 instead of 97-65 (I.e. 15-14 in Sept/Oct as opposed to 14-15) that that "increases their odds" of winning the World Series (assuming no difference in seeding)? It will be the same exact team, with substantially the same hotness.

[Mackus]

[85Knight]

It's about momentum and how a team is actually playing. Look at how the team is playing now. Would you rather go to the playoffs playing the way they are now or if they were on a winning streak?

The final record is relative to where you started from. When we started this discussion the O's were on a pace to win 103 games based on how they had performed all season. If they ended up with less than 100 wins it would mean that something went wrong and they ended the season on a downward spiral.

That's all we're talking about here. I think you're over thinking it. Sure it's possible to get hot in the playoffs with a bad finish but more often than not the teams that make the World Series are the teams that finish strong.

[makoman]

It's about momentum and how a team is actually playing. Look at how the team is playing now. Would you rather go to the playoffs playing the way they are now or if they were on a winning streak?

The final record is relative to where you started from. When we started this discussion the O's were on a pace to win 103 games based on how they had performed all season. If they ended up with less than 100 wins it would mean that something went wrong and they ended the season on a downward spiral.

That's all we're talking about here. I think you're over thinking it. Sure it's possible to get hot in the playoffs with a bad finish but more often than not the teams that make the World Series are the teams that finish strong.

In 2002-2004 a wild card team won each World Series, and from 2002-2007 7 of the 12 series participants were wild cards. Sure, it may be possible to win a World Series as a division winner, but you'd rather be the wild card team.

 

Or, maybe 3 years (or 6, or 7) isn't necessarily statistically significant.

 

No one prefers to go into the playoffs cold, but I'm not convinced being mildly hot (and I'm not sure that .500 is even hot for a team that was .624 going into Sept) necessarily means much.