50 replies to this topic

[BSLRoseKatz]

Looked at Kjerstad, Grayson, Hicks and more

 

https://baltimorespo...timore-orioles/

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Good stuff Rose!  GRod, is to me, the most interesting piece in the minors. Everybody in the baseball world knows he crushes AAA hitters. And everybody also knows he didn't fare well in his first stint in the majors.

 

As you layed out there are 3 red flags facing him.

1. First inning woes.

2. Walks

3. Home runs

 

And none of those things are great attributes for a relief pitcher. The real question is he doing something different on the mound that would make his AAA numbers translate to the majors. Only the coaches have any idea on that but color me skeptical. I would rather leave him in AAA and bring in outside help for the back half of this season. Certainly I'd love to be wrong on him but he spooks me for someone with so much hype.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I mean I think using him as a lower leverage middle relief guy and seeing how it goes from there couldn't hurt, if he enters the game in the 6th with the team already trailing by three runs then it's less of a big deal if he has a rough outing here and there because everyone besides Cano and Felix are having some rough outings here and there in this bullpen

[dude]

Those wouldn't be my 2 of my 3 questions, if I only get 3 questions.

 

Prospect debuts?  While there's a narrative tied to the results of the team this year associated with youth, it actually hasn't been prospect debut youth that has made any real difference.  That doesn't mean this players can't or won't make a difference in the future, but the fact is they've had little impact (maybe actually negative) so far.  GRod couldn't hold his place, Ortiz and Cowser have had no impact and Westburg looks good, but it's way soon in terms of exposure to create impact.

 

My Q1 would be.."how do the Orioles manage the roster?"  We've seen a bevy of players on the roster and because they went ahead and promoted players like Cowser and Westburg and because they've had wide variations in performance from guys like Mateo and Frazier and because of Q3 feels outlandish (performance of Hicks and OHearn) and because everyone thinks a competitive team needs to make moves, they currently have a roster where everyone doesn't fit and certainly can't play.  Nearly everyone on the roster has been shoveled off at some point in the last 12+month.  In May, trading Urias was derided because of his value, now some discuss releasing him.  They've added zero impact players.  They've spent zero dollars.

 

Yet here we are, bumping up against first place in the AL East, third best record in MLB and despite several hiccups, playing really good baseball not because of youth or rebuilding or anything else except they are playing really good baseball.  Discussed for months now, but not every team that thinks they should be winning with Talent/Money is playing anything close to the baseball the Orioles have (looking at you Padres, Mets, Cards, others).

 

I don't see where they get offensive upgrades via trade.  If PG is made available, sure (rounding to 0%), do that.  Inventory of offensive players sucks and there's other teams with more needs and more commitment to creating a deal.  2 weeks left to the deadline so something has to dramatically change to make anything happen (offensively) on the trade front.

 

Don't really get the handling of Westburg.  They've minimized every opportunity with him, but I don't care (I guess I probably do at some level, but not important now).  Personally, I don't really like moving guys around, but that's kind of the box I find the current roster.  Today, I'd platoon Frazier (2B) and Mateo (SS) with Gunnar @ SS/3B and Westburg @ 3B/2B. 

 

I'll platoon OHearn and Mountcastle for now too.

 

Mullins, Hays and Santander need to play every day so you're left with a part time job rotating through the DH spot when Adley isn't DHing.  The easier thing to do is send Cowser back to AAA if you want to play Hicks more, but if Hicks is playing more he's taking some ABs away from the rest of the OF.  

 

No idea if Urias and Hicks are cool sitting on the bench waiting for someone to get hurt, but that's kind of where this roster is right now.  Everyone is giving up a little PT because you only get so many PAs.

 

Sending Cowser to AAA and trading Urias would seem like the best things to do for the current roster.

 

They need to have a good sense of what's going to work with this roster.  It's been 2+2=6 all season and understanding why that's true and managing it well will be core to continued success.

 

Q2 would have have to be the pitching version of Q1.  

 

Everyone wants an impact starter.  I'll pause for the list of names.  A lot of this is looking at your neighbors grass.  I'm all for making everything better, but, like the offensive side, given how the current starters are pitching and given the number of teams looking for starters and given the paucity of even good options and given the Orioles proclivity to look for their deal, doesn't feel to me like there's much real estate to get anything done. 

 

Bullpen is similar.  Chapman was the clear best pitcher available and KC gave him to Texas for nothing.  We don't trust any of our RPs, but if we don't trust our guys, I'm curious which relievers in MLB you are excited about.  You want a different name than the current names, but find current stats better than the group that includes Baumann, Baker, Columbe and (more recently) Cionel.

 

Jordan HIcks stands out as an option, but he's not free.

 

Brad Hand is reasonably available, but is his 4.2 road era what you want to buy into? ...and he costs money.

 

I was watching Taylor Clarke for the Royals and he's been blasted since I talked about him.  Stuff is probably still good, but it's hard to buy into ANY profile which is (merited or not) declining.

 

Again, we'll see what they do, but this feels like all internal management right now.  I had low expectations of their ability/willingness to do anything at the beginning and every aspect of this market (supply, demand, cost, approach) makes it more and more unlikely.

 

While I agree with Q3, I think it's broader.

 

Can EVERYONE keep it up.  Hicks and OHearn are literally the DFA guys turned amazing, but most everything has worked so far even when you don't have specific guys that are lighting it up.  Hicks and OHearn are crushing anything that should be an expectation, but in a macro Baseball context, they aren't crushing it.  Hays, Santander, Mullins, everyone has to weather their slumps and the group needs to stay productive in the win column.  The pitching and defense needs to match up on a nightly performance basis.

 

 For the most part, they've done it all year.  THIS is the way you always win, any year  

 

We are where we are, but it's not over.  Can they keep this thing going like momentum rolling downhill. That's the question.

It only matters if you finish, so show up, play hard and finish.  Great season so far, let's Go.

[dude]

GRod isn't even a question for me.  I think he'll be fine.  He's been in that odd box where everyone is looking at him and waiting and expecting and is he getting held back, how are they managing his innings, is he going to be RoY, is he going to lead this staff.  Blah, blah, blah.

 

His stuff is clearly good enough, so this is just mental and time will solve this.  You have to make choices with him and he's at AAA until next season for me.  Maybe he gets more opportunity if [something happens] after the Trade Deadline when you are looking at other options.  Just let him get his work in, stay strong and he'll be part of [whatever] soon enough.  Not worried about it now.

 

Here is something funny to think about though....

 

...imagine you go back before the 2021 season and someone told you that the 2023 team would have the 3rd best record in MLB and there would be no staff contributions from Means, GRod, Hall, any significant trade for a starter or any significant FA starter signing.

[dude]

So this discussion started before the promotion, but I'd guess the timing of GRod's promotion has everything to do with avoiding narrative associated with adding SPs as we approach the trade deadline.

[Mackus]

"everything to do with"? So nothing to do with Rodriguez dominating AAA for a month plus? Zero to do with that?

[BaltBird 24]

Nothing left to prove in AAA. Show you belong in Baltimore.

[makoman]

I could see the narrative “we don’t need a deadline guy, it’s Grayson” if he had never come up and was still the minors’ top pitching prospect. Having a chance and being bad enough to be sent down kind of downgrades expectations. But I guess we’ll see if the MASN or other reporters push that narrative.

[85Knight]

I could see the narrative “we don’t need a deadline guy, it’s Grayson” if he had never come up and was still the minors’ top pitching prospect. Having a chance and being bad enough to be sent down kind of downgrades expectations. But I guess we’ll see if the MASN or other reporters push that narrative.

I agree. It's hard to make the argument that this is the "big" move we've been waiting for. At the start of the season I was hoping Grayson was gonna develop into that guy by season's end but expectations have to be tempered now.

[dude]

"everything to do with"? So nothing to do with Rodriguez dominating AAA for a month plus? Zero to do with that?

 

Right, if you (FO) produce a result of a quality SP add then GRod just produces resutls at AAA and is a backup.

 

If you know you aren't going to be able to add, then you bring him up early so it doesn't look like a response to not getting anything done.  If he's in the rotation (and isn't terrible like he was generally before) then you don't need to add.

 

I've said several times I don't think they're doing anything.  There's a going in perspective, but the bigger issue today is supply/demand (and Orioles approach) just isn't there to create much Oriole opportunity.

 

When you're under pressure to produce a result (trade) and you can't/don't/won't deliver, promote a young player for everyone to be excited about.

[85Knight]

Right, if you (FO) produce a result of a quality SP add then GRod just produces resutls at AAA and is a backup.

If you know you aren't going to be able to add, then you bring him up early so it doesn't look like a response to not getting anything done. If he's in the rotation (and isn't terrible like he was generally before) then you don't need to add.

I've said several times I don't think they're doing anything. There's a going in perspective, but the bigger issue today is supply/demand (and Orioles approach) just isn't there to create much Oriole opportunity.

When you're under pressure to produce a result (trade) and you can't/don't/won't deliver, promote a young player for everyone to be excited about.

I agree that we probably won't add an ace starter but I don't think that has anything to do with bringing Grayson up.

[bmore_ken]

I agree. It's hard to make the argument that this is the "big" move we've been waiting for. At the start of the season I was hoping Grayson was gonna develop into that guy by season's end but expectations have to be tempered now.

I said when people were proclaiming him the next Messiah that we didn't know what we had in him. Which is why a solid vet starter should have been the offseason priority. Not the bottom of the barrel guy they actually signed. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I agree that we probably won't add an ace starter but I don't think that has anything to do with bringing Grayson up.

Or they want to see what he gives them for 2 or 3 starts before knowing how they need to approach SP at the deadline. Elias said the other night they are a buyer. He said we are clearly a buyer and then laid out how the focus will likely be pitching. Maybe a SP doesnt come into play. Maybe it does. Thats more debateable. What isnt debateable is what I said has been my top priority this whole time. RP. They have to bring in a guy or two they can trust late in games. Games are shortened in the playoffs. Managers will go to the pen early. The deeper your pen obviously the better. The thing is RP isnt sexy at the deadline at all. I can see us adding a very good RP or two and people crying because its not a name they really know. Its never going to be as sexy as a name position player or SP.

[dude]

I agree that we probably won't add an ace starter but I don't think that has anything to do with bringing Grayson up.

 

Every outlet posting their emerging trade targets (and respective teams) is listing the Orioles as adding a SP.  

 

Seems to me like an odd time to bring him up (I'm guessing that's his rotation day, didn't look), but LAD are 11-14 versus LHers and 42-24 versus RHers.  We apparently are skipping Irvin in this series to add GRod (Wells, Kremer).  We'll see what happens.

 

Related note:  Dodgers probably need 2 starters sooner than later....if I had to pick a pair, I'd go Giolito and Lynn.

[BobPhelan]

So many conspiracies, so little time.

[Pedro Cerrano]

So many conspiracies, so little time.

You got a new born keeping you up right? Do some sleepless investigating

[TwentyThirtyFive]

So many conspiracies, so little time.

YOu are a big reader  Fiction in particular.  You must love dude's stuff!!!

[dude]

So many conspiracies, so little time.

 

I feel like you're better than this. 

 

As if this Organization hasn't proven over and over they are driven by things outside the absolute value of the performance of this team.

 

You actually have 5 starters pitching effectively (Gibson is fringy effective).  Are we going 6-man?  

 

No point in discussing, right?

[BobPhelan]

I feel like you're better than this. 

 

As if this Organization hasn't proven over and over they are driven by things outside the absolute value of the performance of this team.

 

You actually have 5 starters pitching effectively (Gibson is fringy effective).  Are we going 6-man?  

 

No point in discussing, right?

 

You go get a better SP, move one or two of the current SP's to the bullpen and improve in both areas.