440 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

It's not a take that deserves a response. We all know what Hardy was.

[dude]

With all due respect to the Mateo vs Ortiz vs Hardy?? discussion, the Dodgers need a SS.

 

They'd likely be happy with either one (well not hardy).  Their SS OPS is 24th in MLB and ALL of it UT Chris Taylor who probably shouldn't be the everyday SS.

 

The only question for the Orioles is how you want to get to Jackson Holliday and that's assuming you don't want to move Gunnar there.  Both of them are Boras clients so the contract future is scripted.  Nobody is talking about extending Mateo.  If we look out and want to max the years Holliday and Gunnar play together on the left side, then that's the start point for perspective. 

 

I think Mateo is the better bridge whether that's late 2024 or 25. 

 

I hate developing guys like Ortiz to get to another guy that needs to develop.  Ortiz's value is wasted at 2B or UT.  Why would we do that. We don't need a 2B.  If you ask Ortiz if he wants to play 2B in BAL or SS in hometown of LA, I'm pretty confident of the answer.  If he plays good+ defense and is a league average bat, that would be huge for LA to lock that down and he could probably be there 8 years.  If Ortiz is going to be the Orioles 2B, that seems like a waste but I hope he's awesome.  If he's the UT, that's like turning a dollar into a dime.

 

There's no value to depth you don't use.  Roster rules preclude you from raw accumulation without management. (Meaningless depth)

[dude]

couple thoughts on this (10+days later)...

 

[Trade 4] Cubs just sent Madrigal to the minors. We seem committed to getting Urias into games (and hey, he does deserve the consideration) and he's coming back soon (started rehab yesterday) and I would just rather see a guy like Madrigal getting less time on the bench than Urias getting more time.  Gunnar needs to settle in at 3B.  Frazier has been solid at 2B.  NM could have been a SS but deferred to Grenier at OSU.  Cubs had him playing some 3B so in terms of being a versatile guy for 2B/SS/3B and some speed of the bench, I just like him better than Urias/Vavra or Ortiz (as a UT).

 

[Trade 5] See above.  I'd still trade him.  You respect the player when you trade him into a better situation.  He's arbitration eligible next year and deserves more opportunity than he should get in Baltimore.  The same teams need 3B help.  The Marlins are getting killed at 3B.  Killed (.514 OPS + nothing).  Incredibly, they aren't out of the NL race because a record just under .500 is like the third WC.  They have shown a willingness to deal their CompBal pick.  They figure out a trade for another CompBal pick and make it 3-way and Orioles get both CompBal.

[Mackus]

I literally cannot fathom preferring Madrigal to Urias. I guess you're saying you're getting something back in the exchange, but a comp pick isn't enough to worsen the roster to that degree. And you're not thinking straight if you don't think that swap worsens the roster.

[dude]

couple new thoughts...

 

Everyone wants to add a starter.  I think the watch should be on is Burnes, Woodruff and Bieber.  All three are team control (ARB3) for 2024.

 

On May 14, the Cleveland team was 19-21 and needing to get going.  Everyone is in it in the AL Central, but since then they are 2-7.  It's too early for any team to be in it or out of it and they certainly have the firepower to get going, but they are struggling.  

 

I don't know when they consider doing something or what they'd even want in return (they could take more than one approach to the roster) but I would start having that conversation with them.  Bieber makes 10M this year and at least 15M next season so if they were rocking along not even a consideration, but when you are struggling and Bieber has maybe been off a little, do they consider mixing things up.

 

Bieber's numbers are down some this year.  HERE is his statcast page and there's a fair amount of BLUE on it, but when you look at past seasons (click on 2023 and go to past years), these numbers have always been on the lower side.  They are lower than in the past, but it's low to lower not better to lower.

-------------------

 

Burnes is also interesting.  I wanted Woodruff but I sometimes question if they've pissed him off in the offseason that incentivizes going ahead and making a move.  Crew is in 1st today so they don't really need to do anything but ALL of his numbers are off and maybe they want to sell on perceived value before (maybe??) his value softens in MIL.  

[Mackus]

I'm in on all the pitchers, happy to pursue any of the suggestions including these. Willing to pay top price for the top arm.

[dude]

I literally cannot fathom preferring Madrigal to Urias. I guess you're saying you're getting something back in the exchange, but a comp pick isn't enough to worsen the roster to that degree. And you're not thinking straight if you don't think that swap worsens the roster.

 

Not sure what you think Urias brings to THIS roster.  If we were talking about using him at 3B to get to Mayo, ok, but i want Gunnar at 3B every day.  Not moving Gunnar to SS because Mateo is fun and Holliday will be here soon enough (probably SEP 2024 at this rate).  Don't need Urias at 2B.  Frazier has been pretty good, Norby and Westburg in the minors.

 

They are playing him more because they want to, not because we need him to play more.  He's a .725-.750 OPS guy with a good glove.  He's not much of a SS and he doesn't add speed off the bench (below average).  There are teams that could REALLY use that profile, like in an everyday role, which would be good for [that team] and good for Urias.

 

I would rather have Madrigal on this roster than Urias and Vavra.  NM could be more useful than both of them.

I would rather have Madrigal on this roster and use Ortiz as a trade chip (Dodgers)

If you can turn Urias into 2 CompBal picks, that's significant. 

[Mackus]

I think Urias is better than Frazier, although when Frazier is hot like this he should certainty play.  And if he isn't then he's better depth than Madrigal.  Urias helps this team more than Madrigal. Madrigal can't hit.  I don't know if he can field, but I do know Urias can, so Madrigal doesn't help there either.  Urias is a vastly superior player.  Draft status is no longer relevant.

 

I wouldn't even agree that Madrigal helps more than Vavra, though maybe there is a defensive argument for that.

 

Utterly baffling to think Madrigal helps more than Urias.  Unsupportable.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I was trying to think of a word to describe most of dudes roster construction thoughts. "Whack" will do.

[makoman]

I feel like it isn't at all clear Madrigal will make it in MLB at this point. Maybe one can argue you're buying low I guess, but I'd rather have Westburg, Ortiz, Urias, any of our guys really. A pick isn't worth downgrading.  

[Mackus]

Urias has a 110 OPS+ for his career and just won a Gold Glove.  Madrigal has an 88 OPS+ for his career and just got optioned off of a bad team. 

 

Urias' OPS is 140 points higher since the beginning of 2022.  Vavra's OPS is 65 points higher.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I just dont get why we are subtracting contributing pieces from a team thats playing so well. I get in theory something could come along where you subtract a current contributing piece(s) for a clear upgrade. Not for what is likely a downgrade and a guy who hasnt proven he is a ML caliber player. If this was 2020 Id at least consider it if I thought Madrigal still had potential to be an everyday reg but even then it wouldnt be the first option. If it was 2020 Id be looking to move him for a prospect(s). Ill just go with Mackus's description of this idea. Unsupportable

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Just speaking strictly on Urias, he's a great balance to both Frazier and Gunnar. He can play both 3b and 2b and obviously he bats RH while Gunnar and Frazier are lefties. Not a perfect platoon guy for either guy because Urias actually hits righties better but it still plays very well when wanting to protect Gunnar or Frazier vs lefties. Hes also as noted above a legit proven ML caliber ballplayer.

[makoman]

Also a stretch to put SS in the same paragraph as Madrigal. Sure, he could have played SS at OSU if not for Grenier, that was 5-6 years ago. He's played 6 innings of SS as a professional, in 2018. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Also a stretch to put SS in the same paragraph as Madrigal. Sure, he could have played SS at OSU if not for Grenier, that was 5-6 years ago. He's played 6 innings of SS as a professional, in 2018.

Yup. He hadnt played anywhere in the show except 2b until this year. This year he has played the majority of his games at 3b. Would be interesting to understand why they did that. I dont know Chi roster that well but his light hitting bat profiles better at 2b than 3b. So why the run at 3b in his 4th year? Was he struggling defensively up the middle?

[dude]

Not making an argument that Madrigal is a better 3B option for the Orioles.  He isn't (which is why a team in desperate need would want him). 

 

Fact is that Urias will want to play more.  He should play less, not because he's a bad player but because there are better options in front of him. Hyde will try to work him in all over and I hate that approach. At best Urias should be the platoon bat with Frazier at 2B, but Frazier is playing well which leaves him with how many opportunities?

 

Madrigal was drafted 1-4.  His profile coming out was best hit tool, excellent speed, GG caliber defense.  The CWS suck at developing guys and that's why their 'rebuild' was an utter failure.  They pushed him way fast and then got traded into a situation with limited opportunity.

 

He's a better defender than Vavra and can cover the left side of the IF.  Vavra shouldn't.  They rarely trust Vavra at 2B.  He's basically a RHed Vavra with better positional value.  Vavra as a LHed bat is redundant to what we already have.

He offers better speed off the bench than Urias. which probably offers more impact than whatever the difference in their bat is because that spot should be hitting less, not more.

Ortiz is probably the better straight option, but the difference is minimal and Ortiz has other value....and Ortiz is where Madrigal was 3 years ago and just wants an everyday opportunity.

 

The comparison is for the role and the fit, not the absolute value of the player.  If Madrigal had performed anything close to his expectations, he wouldn't be available for free.  Haven't we done well with these type guys?  You turn value you can't leverage into assets and develop buy low opportunity.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

My lord man. We dont want to be trading Urias for anything right now. You let him be a super uti and if youre comfortable with the next guys up in the system for 2b and uti thenyou can trade him in the offseason for something that will help the ML team in '24. Not comp balance picks. We are beyond the point of trading Urias for less than. By that I mean a lesser player like Madrigal even if you still think he has upside or a prospect who is years away. You keep Urias for sure in '23 and you reevaluate after the season but if you do move him its for a player that is expected to contribute to a winning '24 team.


Id also like to note that while Madrigal may be the fastest guy in the world it has translated to 8 SB in 14 career attempts. Yikes. Not that SB are everything on the basepaths but a big part of talking about someones speed is SB potential. He should never be allowed to attempt a steal with that success rate.

[makoman]

Urias will want to play more is meaningless IMO. You made the same argument with Wells. Good thing we didn't trade him just cause he wouldn't have wanted to be a reliever. These things have a way of working themselves out. If Frazier keeps hitting then yeah, it gets tough for Urias to find time. But he's already had a 30 game stretch with OPS in the 500s, I imagine Urias will get a shot for some regular time.

 

But anyway, if you do want to trade Urias, because he's a surplus, I'm not all that against that, but you bring up Westburg instead. And you do it for something more helpful now IMO. 

[dude]

I'm not planning on beating the Madrigal thing to death (if I haven't already)

 

Yup. He hadnt played anywhere in the show except 2b until this year. This year he has played the majority of his games at 3b. Would be interesting to understand why they did that. I dont know Chi roster that well but his light hitting bat profiles better at 2b than 3b. So why the run at 3b in his 4th year? Was he struggling defensively up the middle?

 

They signed Swanson and moved Hoerner over to 2B.  Wisdom is playing 3B.  They are all RHed.  He's a poor fit on that roster once they make the choice at 2B.  Just like Urias is a lesser fit when we make the choice of Gunnar at 3B.  They are just moving him around because they had to do something with him.

 

You can't leverage the absolute value of a player if you aren't using him in the more significant role (because you aren't using all of their value).

 

Ortiz is in the same spot in Baltimore.  He's not a good fit for the role left for him and his role has to come at the expense of Urias and Vavra too.  You have 3 guys competing for the role and they can't possibly all be used and you have more guys behind them.

 

I want: Madrigal as a more useful player on the bench + Rushing + CompA + CompB

You guys want: Urais, Vavra and Ortiz fighting for the same limited utility role.  (another example of meaningless depth)

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Madrigal has literally no pop, no SB ability, doesnt walk. Hasnt hit for avg in 3 years. What are we doing here.