440 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I mean I get the skepticism of the bat. I said yesterday Ill happily take the over on 90+. If its right around league avg 97, 98,99 he will be a 4 WAR player If he is on the lower end of my prediction hes still gonna be 3 or better. I dont need to upgrade on elite def and baserunning. Everyone still loved Hardy despite his hitting issues at times. Hardy had rWAR seasons of 4.1, 3.3, 3.6, and 3.1 from '11-14. Mateo is tracking to at least match half of that 4 year run after this year and has the team control and the age hit on the the other 2 years of that 4 year run Hardy had here.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Even if Mateo doesnt quite hit the 4 year run Hardy had here it still seems so weird to me that with 2 similar guys, one was beloved and the other people doubt so much and are talking about benching or trading.

[Mackus]

With Hardy you knew he was capable of a hot enough streak each year to justify the down periods.  He might not do it in any given season or month, but it was in there somewhere.  With Mateo, whether it was even in there was very debatable heading into the season, when that hot streak last year could reasonably have been viewed as a one-off that he wouldn't ever do again. Now that he's repeated it to begin 2023, a lot of that particular doubt is reduced.  He's capable of getting hot enough for long enough to justify the bat for the entire season. 

 

But even with that one hot streak, he's gonna struggle to be an 85 OPS+ bat if he's dreadful the rest of the season (he was 83 OPS+ in 2022 including the 6-week hot streak).  He's gotta be able to do a little bit more during the cold streaks, or deliver hot streaks more frequently to get above that 90 OPS+ line you mention.  If he's close to league average with the bat, then he's a massive asset.  He's solid even if he's a good bit below.  It's only if he's low 80s or worse that you really think about replacing him.

[makoman]

Even if Mateo doesnt quite hit the 4 year run Hardy had here it still seems so weird to me that with 2 similar guys, one was beloved and the other people doubt so much and are talking about benching or trading.

Hardy was 28 and had multiple above average years as a hitter when we got him. Mateo has had a handful of above average months, never back to back. It's not weird to have doubts about him sustaining. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Hardy was 28 and had multiple above average years as a hitter when we got him. Mateo has had a handful of above average months, never back to back. It's not weird to have doubts about him sustaining.

If Mateo keeps tracking the way he is tracking he will have put up 2 consecutive seasons similar to the 4 best years Hardy had here. And he still will be questioned and people will still be trying to upgrade on him. Obviously, if he has another month like he had in April and end up at 110 OPS+ and 5.5 WAR then yeah people might finally accept him. The more likely scenario is another 90ish OPS+ season and 3-4 WAR.


But even if we dont jump the gun on where he will be at the end of the season hes not being respected for the overall value he brings to the team now. Hes still 2nd on the team in WAR and he did put up a 3.2 WAR season last year. Ive seen multiple posts in the last day both undermining his 3+ WAR season last year and another already calling for him to be platooned this year.

[Mackus]

No, that's not true. Not offensively. Hardy had a 114 and a 99. Mateo had 83 last year. Who knows this year, could be another 83 if he can't get hot again, would need to find more hot streaks and less doormat periods to approach Hardy's better seasons.

[CantonJester]

No, that's not true. Not offensively. Hardy had a 114 and a 99. Mateo had 83 last year. Who knows this year, could be another 83 if he can't get hot again, would need to find more hot streaks and less doormat periods to approach Hardy's better seasons.

 

And Hardy wound up being a decidedly below average ballplayer. He had upside after MIL > MIN to BAL, but it just didn't pan out. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I care about total value. I dont value offense more than defense at SS. I will say that while speed and baserunning is obviously an asset if Mateo were hypothetically getting tons of value from baserunning and was clearly both an inferior offensive and defensive player that made up considerable value because of baserunning Id rank the zero baserunning guy (Hardy) higher.

[BSLRoseKatz]

For what it's worth Matt Chapman had a 1.152 OPS in April and now sits at .487 for May and I'm sure some other notable examples exist. There's still a lot of kinks being worked out from small samples at this point in both directions. 

[Mackus]

I care about total value. I dont value offense more than defense at SS. I will say that while speed and baserunning is obviously an asset if Mateo were hypothetically getting tons of value from baserunning and was clearly both an inferior offensive and defensive player that made up considerable value because of baserunning Id rank the zero baserunning guy (Hardy) higher.

 

Ok, lets do total value then.  Hardy had two 4+ WAR seasons and four 3+ WAR seasons (only three more based on FG).  Mateo has had one 3+ WAR season (none based on FG).  So he hasn't yet come close to Hardy's best, though he has matched what I'd say was a typical Hardy season and did better than a bad Hardy season.

[hallas]

And Hardy wound up being a decidedly below average ballplayer. He had upside after MIL > MIN to BAL, but it just didn't pan out. 

 

wait, what?

 

His first 4 seasons with the O's after we signed him were 4.5, 2.4, 3.2, 3.0 WAR.

 

He got injured in 2015 and kind of fell off a cliff.  the 2nd extension we signed him to was kind of silly, but he was a great player for us, both offensively and defensively.

[hallas]

I think the main reason to be concerned with Mateo is because he is 27, well past the time when defense typically peaks.  If he ages poorly he won't really be a plus defender at SS anymore at age 30, at which point his value is completely in the dumps.  As a player with an 85 wRC+, like 95% of his value is positional and defense.

 

There are a lot of examples of players able to maintain defensive production at SS into their mid-30s, so it's not out of the question for him to do so, but he's got a weird profile with a lot of plus-skills that don't age very well, so I'm not sure if trading him is necessarily a smaller gamble than keeping him and hoping for the best.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think the main reason to be concerned with Mateo is because he is 27, well past the time when defense typically peaks.  If he ages poorly he won't really be a plus defender at SS anymore at age 30, at which point his value is completely in the dumps.  As a player with an 85 wRC+, like 95% of his value is positional and defense.

 

There are a lot of examples of players able to maintain defensive production at SS into their mid-30s, so it's not out of the question for him to do so, but he's got a weird profile with a lot of plus-skills that don't age very well, so I'm not sure if trading him is necessarily a smaller gamble than keeping him and hoping for the best.

This is fair but you take it year to year with him. No one thinks an extension into his 30s would be particularly wise.

[hallas]

This is fair but you take it year to year with him. No one thinks an extension into his 30s would be particularly wise.

 

Considering we have like 900 middle infield prospects that are banging on the door to Camden Yards it's probably worth listening to trade offers for him.

 

Urias being out kind of puts a damper on this, but if Ortiz or Westburg can be league average shortstops and we can maybe find some pitching help I think we'd be better off.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Considering we have like 900 middle infield prospects that are banging on the door to Camden Yards it's probably worth listening to trade offers for him.

Urias being out kind of puts a damper on this, but if Ortiz or Westburg can be league average shortstops and we can maybe find some pitching help I think we'd be better off.

Id be fine if hes part of a deal for a legit MLer. That works too. More of an offseason move though. Hes my SS for '23 when healthy.

[BobPhelan]

https://twitter.com/...VUJft8skf32X07Q

[CantonJester]

wait, what?

 

His first 4 seasons with the O's after we signed him were 4.5, 2.4, 3.2, 3.0 WAR.

 

He got injured in 2015 and kind of fell off a cliff.  the 2nd extension we signed him to was kind of silly, but he was a great player for us, both offensively and defensively.

 

One season he was more than solid, and a couple below average seasons. Stop slurping the WAR. If it were the be-all end-all, the A’s would’ve had 5 titles after Beane took over. 

[Mike B]

https://twitter.com/...VUJft8skf32X07Q

Bob, you should be in the family section when this kid gets called up.  You have been on this kid before anyone else knew his name.  

[Mike B]

And Hardy wound up being a decidedly below average ballplayer. He had upside after MIL > MIN to BAL, but it just didn't pan out. 

JJ hardy a below average player??  Before his back sidelined him, I think he was one of the most important player on some good Oriole teams.

 

As for Mateo, I think he is a good player and I am fine with him playing until JH is ready.  My issue with him, is he sometimes like last night let's his offensive struggles get to him.  He made 2 mental errors last night.  The dash to home when the ball was hit directly to the 3rd baseman.  Santander bailed him out by following the gaffe, by taking Ohtani deep.

Later in the game, he forgot to cover second base on a ball to Frazier.  I think maybe he forgot how many outs there were.  Frazier avoided a bigger problem by outrunning Trout to the bag.  

[hallas]

One season he was more than solid, and a couple below average seasons. Stop slurping the WAR. If it were the be-all end-all, the A’s would’ve had 5 titles after Beane took over. 

 

Again, what?  This is one of the craziest takes I've seen.  His first 4 years with the O's he posted wRC+ of 114, 78, 99, and 90, and every one of those years he was one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball by both DRS and UZR.  Mateo last year had a career year, with a wRC+ of 82 and posted about the same defensive numbers by DRS and UZR as Hardy.  There's no world where Hardy is anywhere close to a below average ballplayer for 3 out of the first 4 years he was here.