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2023 NFL General Talk (KC Wins SB 58)


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#1081 ivanbalt

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 11:29 AM

In the least shocking news on a Monday morning during the football season, the SF HC is being questioned by all the armchair QBs


And then there's the worst of the worst Shannon Sharpe blaming Purdy for not playing well.



#1082 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 12:06 PM

Damn FanDuel. A $25 free play for guessing the Gronk kick right. I see you.

#1083 makoman

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 12:09 PM

All of it. Know it all Orlovsky said he would have went 4th and 4. But I agree with you. The biggest thing is taking the ball 1st in OT. The thought being the team who gets the ball second gets 4th downs if the first team scores. Reid says they would have defered had they won the toss and went for 2 if SF had scored a TD in OT.


But IMO its really close. If you match FGs or stops you get the 3rd possesion.

Seems like the 49ers players didn't even know the OT rules were different. The coaches apparently discussed plans among themselves, hopefully they knew the rules, but never mentioned plans to the team. Chiefs players say they've been talking about it all postseason and even back to training camp.

 

https://www.espn.com...uper-bowl-rules



#1084 CantonJester

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 06:38 PM

Seems like the 49ers players didn't even know the OT rules were different. The coaches apparently discussed plans among themselves, hopefully they knew the rules, but never mentioned plans to the team. Chiefs players say they've been talking about it all postseason and even back to training camp.

 

https://www.espn.com...uper-bowl-rules

 

You can ding Shanahan for his suspect clock mgmt towards the end of the first half, or wonder why he'd choose to receive first in OT (given the rules), but at the end of the day he went with what got him there. The Dan Campbell 'go with what got you there' philosophy. Fair enough.

 

But trotting out a roster of football players who don't have a firm grasp of the rule changes? In contrast to a team like KC who baked those changes into their offensive and defensive philosophies and plans of attack? 

 

Ouch. 



#1085 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 07:52 PM

Damn FanDuel. A $25 free play for guessing the Gronk kick right. I see you.


I can’t believe I “bet” him to make it! Lost again!

I am a bone head

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

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#1086 Ravens2006

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 09:57 PM

I really thought Shanahan should have called a TO after they got down to the Chiefs 9 or 10 (?) their first possession in OT. McCaffrey was rolling but had a lot of touches... take a minute to let him catch his breath and a shot of Gatorade. He was your best bet to punch it in at that point...

#1087 CantonJester

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 11:24 PM

But 5 starting pitchers isn't a single position.

 

5 starting pitchers, and 5-7 relief pitchers = ONE PITCHER.

 

Don't under-think this. 



#1088 russsnyder

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Posted 13 February 2024 - 04:28 AM

I can’t believe I “bet” him to make it! Lost again!

I am a bone head


He looked bad doing it too.

Maybe it was the old school face mask, but he looked like he had no chance.

Maybe next year he should try soccer style?
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams

#1089 russsnyder

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Posted 13 February 2024 - 04:46 AM

5 starting pitchers, and 5-7 relief pitchers = ONE PITCHER.

Don't under-think this.


I get it, and it's an interesting premise.

Pitchers touch the ball first while on defense, and QBs touch the ball first on offense. Plus, you really can't be successful in either sport without good pitching or a good QB.

A QB is going to be put under more scrutiny by the average fan than an entire pitching staff. That said, being a closer is baseball comes with a lot of scrutiny.
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams

#1090 makoman

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Posted 13 February 2024 - 07:21 AM

Pitching is just as important as quarterbacking, but doing it using 13/26 roster spots isn’t comparable to 1/53.
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#1091 russsnyder

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Posted 13 February 2024 - 07:25 AM

Pitching is just as important as quarterbacking, but doing it using 13/26 roster spots isn’t comparable to 1/53.


I think we have struck gold.
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams

#1092 mweb08

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Posted 13 February 2024 - 08:13 AM

Pitching is just as important as quarterbacking, but doing it using 13/26 roster spots isn’t comparable to 1/53.


I'd say more important actually, but yes, the main point is what you say afterwards.

#1093 Mike in STL

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Posted 13 February 2024 - 10:14 AM

Pitching is just as important as quarterbacking, but doing it using 13/26 roster spots isn’t comparable to 1/53.

On an individual level the best starters account for only 10-15% of the total innings the team plays. Quarterbacks are still far more important to their team.  A group of 3 really good starting pitchers accounting for 30-45% of the team's innings is more comparable to what 1 QB does.

 

It's kind of reflected in salaries too. AAV of the top 10 QB salaries average $48M. AAV of the top 10 pitcher salaries is $32.5M (omitting Ohtani as more than half of his salary is tied to the bat). QBs make about 20% more than their pitching counterparts, and I'd have to think that gap is wider if the NFL had unlimited spending, or MLB had a cap on theirs. 


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#1094 Mike in STL

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Posted 13 February 2024 - 10:35 AM

Win shares is the probably the best way to see who contributes what. I still can't find NFL player win shares. But there are articles projecting win shares and elite QBs project between 6 and 7 so the MVP caliber guys are probably in the 7-8 range since projections don't go to extremes that an actual sample can. Non-QB star players are in the 2-3 range on both sides. Hill, Kelce, Garrett, Roquan. 

 

You can find baseball win shares easily. Thanks Bill James.

All Statistics (bisdata.com)

 

Cy Young winners: Gerritt Cole had 21-win shares. The Yankees won 82 games. So he is worth about 25% to them. Blake Snell had 17-win shares. The Pads also won 82, so he was worth about 20% of their wins. 

 

Lamar Jackson probably had win shares around 7 putting him around about 50% contribution to Ravens wins. 

 

The overlap is probably quite small. The best MLB pitchers probably contribute about what even a mid-QB like Derek Carr contributes, even that might be generous. The next tier down, a guy like Dylan Cease had 8-win shares on a 61-win team for only about a 13% contribution. Mid-QBs are probably contributing at least double that or more.


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#1095 Mike in STL

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Posted 13 February 2024 - 10:39 AM

Corbin Burnes win share was 14 on a 92-win team. 15.2%.

Kyle Bradish had 14 on a 101-win team. 13.9%

 

If the Orioles sign Blake Snell, the three of them combined would equal what Lamar Jackson contributes to the Ravens. 


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