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Cole Irvin


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#101 Mackus

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Posted 31 January 2023 - 01:01 PM

I understand the benefit if we ever get there. I just don't think we ever get there. I think odds are slim we get there. As history has shown, only two guys who played an MLB game here six years ago are still in the organization.

 

I don't disagree with your conclusion regarding Grayson, but the bolded is a pointlessly narrow scope to use in searching for examples to support of either side of the roster decision.  No reason to only consider guys who were on the cusp of the Orioles roster exactly six years ago.  That's one team and one season out of 30 teams and maybe 30 seasons (I don't know when the current system began, I'm guessing after '94 strike) where these types of decisions can be made.

 

You don't even really need examples to be able to make a case either way.  The plusses and minuses, and the likelihoods of each, are pretty easily understood.  



#102 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 31 January 2023 - 01:04 PM

To me early season is when pitching is less an issue. Its cold and the hitters haven't gotten their strokes down. Warm weather is when I want my best arms on the mound not April.



#103 BobPhelan

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Posted 31 January 2023 - 01:13 PM

Teams are probably realizing this as they started putting prospects on OD rosters. Taking the shot at winning games, and the little added benefit of them being a top two rookie may be tipping the scales away from wanting the guy on team control six years later, when he may not even be on the team then.


I think it’s that teams value that potential draft pick more than people think and if a player struggles enough that it’s clear they won’t get it they can just send them down for a few weeks at some point during the season. Example: Spencer Torkelson.
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#104 Mike B

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Posted 31 January 2023 - 01:20 PM

I think it’s that teams value that potential draft pick more than people think and if a player struggles enough that it’s clear they won’t get it they can just send them down for a few weeks at some point during the season. Example: Spencer Torkelson.

I think the Orioles and Elias are definitely one of those teams that value the draft pick, which makes sense to me, because they want to keep the farm system stocked.


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#105 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 08:33 AM

FanGraphsCole Comfort: Orioles Bolster Rotation in Trade with Oakland



#106 BaltBird 24

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 02:42 PM

I'm happier with Irvin than if we'd have went with the 3rd tier of guys like Wacha, Syndergaard, Evoladi.

Would've still appreciated a guy from that 2nd tier like Bassit, but it is what it is.

Irvin should be a reliable, solid contributor to the rotation.

#107 Mackus

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 02:46 PM

I'm fine with Irvin, but why prefer him to those other guys? Numbers would seem to indicate he's a lesser pitcher than each example you gave. Youth and durability on his side, but I think the others have stronger performances and upside.

 

Last two seasons:

 

Irvin - 360 IP 95 ERA+

Wahca - 252 IP 99 ERA+

Eovaldi - 291 IP 119 ERA+

Syndergaard (just '22) - 135 IP 103 ERA+



#108 Mike B

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 02:59 PM

I'm fine with Irvin, but why prefer him to those other guys? Numbers would seem to indicate he's a lesser pitcher than each example you gave. Youth on his side, but that's about it.

My opinion, while I like Eovaldi and to lesser extents Syndergaard and Wacha, I think Irvin is the one that has a chance to improve and become the better pitcher.  Left handers that rely on control, sometimes peak a little later.  Hopefully that happens for Irvin in Baltimore.

The Orioles reason for preferring him are almost certainly financial.


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#109 BaltBird 24

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 03:18 PM

I'm fine with Irvin, but why prefer him to those other guys? Numbers would seem to indicate he's a lesser pitcher than each example you gave. Youth and durability on his side, but I think the others have stronger performances and upside.

Last two seasons:

Irvin - 360 IP 95 ERA+
Wahca - 252 IP 99 ERA+
Eovaldi - 291 IP 119 ERA+
Syndergaard (just '22) - 135 IP 103 ERA+


Maybe would've slightly preferred Evoaldi because I think he has the potential to have top of rotation stuff, I'll gladly take Irvin over Wacha and Syndergaard. Reliability is a big part for me and you can reasonably expect Irvin to take the ball every 5th day with similar results to the other two, who could easily implode on you.

#110 BobPhelan

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 04:21 PM

Maybe would've slightly preferred Evoaldi because I think he has the potential to have top of rotation stuff, I'll gladly take Irvin over Wacha and Syndergaard. Reliability is a big part for me and you can reasonably expect Irvin to take the ball every 5th day with similar results to the other two, who could easily implode on you.


Agreed. Also confident Orioles can squeeze a little bit more out of Irvin with Chris Holt and company.

#111 Mackus

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 04:35 PM

Agreed. Also confident Orioles can squeeze a little bit more out of Irvin with Chris Holt and company.

 

Would that confidence not extend to the other potential guys?  What's different about Irvin (and maybe Gibson) from the others?

 

Basically, is there a blueprint for guys who would tend to benefit that we can see at our level or is it more of a thing where we're assuming that since Elias made a specific choice on who to bring in, that those guys must be players the staff thinks they can improve?



#112 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 06:16 PM

Would have much rather had the equivalent SP via FA than trade.

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#113 BaltBird 24

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 07:35 PM

Would have much rather had the equivalent SP via FA than trade.


Then that'll cost you a draft pick, right? Guess it depends if you'd rather have a draft pick or Hernaiz.

#114 Mackus

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 07:56 PM

Then that'll cost you a draft pick, right? Guess it depends if you'd rather have a draft pick or Hernaiz.

 

Just Eovaldi amongst the group you listed. Bassitt also was compensated.

 

Taillon, Walker, Syndergaard, Heaney, and Wacha all did not get qualifying offers, so no compensation.

 

O's would've sacrificed their 3rd highest pick for signing a compensated FA.  I think that'll be #63.  As a comparison, Fabian was #67 last year.  BSL had him #25 and Hernaiz #26 in August.  Bob had Hernaiz #14 and Fabian #15 more recently.  

 

I think pick vs Hernaiz is a fair tossup, open to preferences. Many picks in the supplemental-2 area won't end up reaching the levels Hernaiz has (Fabian is similar and Stowers was also drafted around that point, but Trimble and Servideo were as well and they are lesser rated).  But on the other hand, Hernaiz was pretty well blocked here.


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#115 makoman

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 09:51 PM

Irvin also has 4 years of control at cheaper than FA prices. Every team has a budget so that does matter even if the O's weren't being cheap. Taillon for example got 4/68 and is also basically a league average pitcher, so you're saving money that in theory could go towards improving the team elsewhere. Whether it actually will... 


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#116 BobPhelan

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Posted 08 February 2023 - 10:30 PM

Would that confidence not extend to the other potential guys? What's different about Irvin (and maybe Gibson) from the others?

Basically, is there a blueprint for guys who would tend to benefit that we can see at our level or is it more of a thing where we're assuming that since Elias made a specific choice on who to bring in, that those guys must be players the staff thinks they can improve?


It would. I don’t know what the blueprint is but I believe it is there. But health, durability, and youth are on Irvin’s side at least. Eovaldi would get the edge for me all things considered but he doesn’t have those three things.

#117 Mike B

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Posted 09 February 2023 - 10:15 AM

Agreed. Also confident Orioles can squeeze a little bit more out of Irvin with Chris Holt and company.

I think with finesse pitchers any additional information you can give them, is a bonus.  We shall see.


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#118 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 09 February 2023 - 07:33 PM


Irvin also has 4 years of control at cheaper than FA prices. Every team has a budget so that does matter even if the O's weren't being cheap. Taillon for example got 4/68 and is also basically a league average pitcher, so you're saving money that in theory could go towards improving the team elsewhere. Whether it actually will...

This is everything. You get Irvin cheaper and for longer. Well, at least for longer without all the risk of signing one of these other guys for 4 years. Someone said signing one of the FAs wouldve been better than Irvin because its just money vs a prospect. That goes case by case but fora lot of these FAs I disagree. Id rather just give up Hernaiz and have the team control at a lower cost with Irvin

#119 Mackus

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Posted 09 February 2023 - 08:14 PM

Considering cost & control I've got no issue with Irvin over the other cheap FAs. I've got a big issue with Gibson and Irvin (or any of the other cheap FA) in general, at least as the primary guy. One of them as the second behind a good pitcher would've been passable.

#120 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 09 February 2023 - 08:26 PM

Whats a cheap FA. Everyone wishes that Gibson or Irvin was the 2nd SP acquired this offseason. Going with Gibson and Irvin isnt the end of the world. Doesnt deserve all the ridicule it has received this offseason. At least from the outlook of acquiring SP. If you want to mix in essentially doing nothing offensively then I can get that would bring the grade down. I dont see how Gibson and Irvin are failing grades when it comes to acquiring SP. Or even a D grade IMO. Its in the C range. Especially if you believe the Os had competitive offers out for some of the 2nd tier FAs who spurned the Os.




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