347 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The offense isnt great but its good. Its very efficient. They run the ball a lot and run it successfully. That runs clocks. They own TOP, they convert on 3rd at a high rate. You just want a throwing offense. Thats what this all comes down to IMO. You have a bias towards throwing the ball all over the field

[You Play to Win the Game]

I want to win another championship at some point. That’s all. Silly me.

They’ve had 5 years to get close with this one, they haven’t. And the system is far more predictable than it was in 2019. It isn’t new anymore. It’s all on tape. This offense gets stymied way too often.

[Mackus]

Bateman wasn't needed to be the aforementioned guys, but you needed him there being a consistent threat. Not having available is huge.

I think this year's WR room is about as big of a gamble as DeCosta has taken and it's bitten the team.

I like DeCosta, but he's definitely open to a lot of criticism for completely ignoring some key units over recent off-seasons, particularly the pass rush and WR groups. Pass rush has been good this year with the collection of contributors. WR hasn't and it's definitely hurting the offense IMO. Bateman's injuries hurt but given that he's both dealt with injuries previously and was an unproven player, he's not someone that should've been counted on for as much as he seemingly was being counted on.

[Mackus]

I do think Andrews counts as a huge weapon for Lamar. He's every bit as good as all but the very best WR (Kupp, Jefferson, Diggs, Chase, Hill, Adams...maybe a couple others). Most teams don't have anyone catching passes that is better than Andrews. So I don't agree that Lamar lacks an alpha, just that the depth behind that guy hasn't been good. Brown and now Bateman were good attempts to find a second fiddle that can scare teams. Still a shot for Bateman to become that, though obviously not this season.

[Mike in STL]

A few thoughts…

1. 10 years ago QBs got paid a little bit higher than the last one. That trend needs to stop.
2. Lamar has been given poor advice, IMO.
3. Deshaun Watson deal was utterly stupid and Lamar would be extended if not for it.
4. Lamar is still good and I would extend him. But not under the terms of 1.
5. Lamar has 7 games (plus?) to change my mind about 4.
6. If this season ends with a whimper, I offer LJ a fair deal, plus extra, but am not making him the highest paid anything. He turns it down, tag and trade him to wherever they won’t win anything ever. Carolina or something. They can nearly complete the 2018 QB draft class set.
7. It would be dumb to pay the QB who finishes 7th, 17th, and maybe 10th ish in QBR over the last three years, top 2 money.
8. I’d give Lamar a guaranteed contract. But if he doesn’t improve over the last stretch of games, it’s going to be like 4/$100M…which he’ll turn down. But see 7.

[hallas]

No. I never said anything resembling that it’d be unfair to compare the two rooms. I just said it’s unfair to evaluate this room, because they make no effort to use this room. I’m actually not a moron, thanks.

 

I disagree even here.  Hollywood put up a 1K yard season with the backup QB throwing to him for 1/3 of the games, and a 750 yard season when we ran the ball about 80% of the time.  Bateman was on pace for a 1K yard season before he got hurt.  Our hope for Duvernay is a "breakout" 500 yard season, and something similar from Demarcus Robinson.  And there was a very strong consensus even from people that liked Hollywood that his skillset wasn't great for our system.  So if a WR that is a poor fit for our system can still manage to put up a 1000 yard season, what does that say about our 2 starting WRs that will barely cross 500 yards?

[You Play to Win the Game]

I disagree even here. Hollywood put up a 1K yard season with the backup QB throwing to him for 1/3 of the games, and a 750 yard season when we ran the ball about 80% of the time. Bateman was on pace for a 1K yard season before he got hurt. Our hope for Duvernay is a "breakout" 500 yard season, and something similar from Demarcus Robinson. And there was a very strong consensus even from people that liked Hollywood that his skillset wasn't great for our system. So if a WR that is a poor fit for our system can still manage to put up a 1000 yard season, what does that say about our 2 starting WRs that will barely cross 500 yards?

Quite the reach. You’re just being confrontational at this point. Trust me, I know it when I see it.

Because some internet fans said he was a bad fit for our system, that must mean it’s true.

Robinson has 42 targets. Duvernay has 39. Proche 10. Brown had 146 last season.

[Mike in STL]

Also a 1000 yard season is only 59 yards per game. Is that even good in this era of the game? In Romans offense, I guess.

[Mike in STL]

Big time throw percentage was one of the key stats I pointed out in the article. He had 7 of them in the last 7 games before yesterday. Yesterday he had 3. Jumped from 9th in BTT% to 4th in one game.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

7th in points per possesion. Top 10 at least in PFF efficiency. Top 5 in 3rd down efficency. 2nd in rushing.


Hate the style not the results or the players Ricker

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Btw Im not saying there hasnt been some shift but I find it funny that for the longest time and really not really that long ago it was always you need to be able to run the ball late in the year. For playoff football and all because refs let more go and conditions. Now I dont know how often Ive heard someone say you need to be able to pass in the playoffs. Its silly. You need to be able to adapt and go different ways and while Im not here to tell you we have a good passing game its shit on way too much by Ravens fans.

[You Play to Win the Game]

7th in points per possesion. Top 10 at least in PFF efficiency. Top 5 in 3rd down efficency. 2nd in rushing.


Hate the style not the results or the players Ricker

Not consistent enough. Not good enough for me. Not for what they should be. They’re 11th in yards, 9th in points, 24th in RedZone efficiency and I’m pretty sure they lead the planet in mindless delay of game penalties.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Btw Im not saying there hasnt been some shift but I find it funny that for the longest time and really not really that long ago it was always you need to be able to run the ball late in the year. For playoff football and all because refs let more go and conditions. Now I dont know how often Ive heard someone say you need to be able to pass in the playoffs. Its silly. You need to be able to adapt and go different ways and while Im not here to tell you we have a good passing game its shit on way too much by Ravens fans.

Why not just wait to see how it turns out in January yeah? We’re going to find out. Chill.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Why not just wait to see how it turns out in January yeah? We’re going to find out. Chill.

Im not not chill. Im just spitting factz and killer analysis.

[hallas]

I do think Andrews counts as a huge weapon for Lamar. He's every bit as good as all but the very best WR (Kupp, Jefferson, Diggs, Chase, Hill, Adams...maybe a couple others). Most teams don't have anyone catching passes that is better than Andrews. So I don't agree that Lamar lacks an alpha, just that the depth behind that guy hasn't been good. Brown and now Bateman were good attempts to find a second fiddle that can scare teams. Still a shot for Bateman to become that, though obviously not this season.

 

I've gone back and forth on this one.  I took a look at leaders in EPA per route run, and right now, among receivers with at least 50 targets, Andrews is 16th, and 2nd behind Kelce among TEs.  The 15 WRs ahead of him are Waddle, Diggs, Hill, Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Juju, Tee Higgins, Jefferson, Devonta Smith, Chase, Terry McLaurin, Arthur Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, and Isaiah Jones.

 

I ran this exercise last year which was a career year for Andrews, and he ranked 15th again among all receivers, and 1st among TEs, with a minimum of 80 targets.  Last year Kelce was hurt , so it was Andrews in the spotlight.  However, there were 2 TEs that were ahead of him but just barely missed the cutoff: Dallas Goedert, and Gronk.

 

There is a lot of agreement when comparing top PFF receiving grades among WRs, though it's not 100%.  However, PFF grades relative to position if I recall correctly, so you can't take a 90 receiving grade TE and say that he's just as good a receiver as a 90 grade WR.  That's why I went with EPA/route.

 

This tells me that there are a good chunk of WRs that clearly provide more in the passing game than Andrews, so I think it's wrong to think of him as a game-breaker in the way that Hill or Waddle or Diggs are.  Kelce is really the only TE at that level, and how much of that is due to Mahomes is definitely up for debate.  Given that Andrews can actually be a lead blocker in the run game unlike any of the WRs on the list, the Ravens are probably fine with the tradeoff that their best receiver is the equivalent of a second-tier WR1.  But they have a bit more of an onus to find a good 2nd option, compared to the Bills or the Chiefs or the Eagles or the Dolphins (who have 2 alpha options.). And frankly a lot of these teams have 2nd options that aren't really that much worse purely as receivers than Andrews is, and in some cases better.  On Philly, Devonta Smith, Brown, and Goedert all have higher EPA/route than Andrews.  Juju and Kelce both have higher EPA/route for KC. Hill and Waddle are 1 and 3 in the league in EPA/route for Miami.

 

This is kind of why I've been on the soapbox about a receiver since the season started, and why I've been riding this soapbox like a rented mule since Bateman went down.  For 3 of the top 4 seeded playoff teams, Andrews would be a 3rd option, and our 2nd best healthy receiver would struggle to make the roster.

[hallas]

Quite the reach. You’re just being confrontational at this point. Trust me, I know it when I see it.

Because some internet fans said he was a bad fit for our system, that must mean it’s true.

Robinson has 42 targets. Duvernay has 39. Proche 10. Brown had 146 last season.

 

Okay, now do 2020 for Hollywood.  Brown had 100 targets and 769 yards while running 447 routes.  Duvernay is on pace for 418 routes run, but he's only on pace for 60 targets and 530 yards.  He's clearly not being blocked by better receivers on the team any more than Hollywood was.  Demarcus Robinson is slightly better in terms of targets per route, but he's still worse than any version of Brown during his 3 years here.

 

Or lets use yards per route run.  Hollywood was 1.81, 1.72, and 1.61 for his 3 years.  This is Duvernay's best year, and he's at 1.27.  This is also Robinson's best year, and he's at 1.38.  Neither player has anyone other than Andrews vulturing targets, but Hollywood had Andrews vulturing targets too.

 

I can keep going with the efficiency stats.  Targets don't tell the whole story.  If you're running routes and not getting targeted, that usually means you're not getting open, or you can't be trusted to get open early in the progression.

 

It's an extremely limited sample size, but if this is anywhere close to what Desean Jackson has left in the tank then he's our best WR by a long shot, but I don't know if he can stay healthy if we press him into a full game's worth of snaps.

[Biggsy]

Okay, now do 2020 for Hollywood. Brown had 100 targets and 769 yards while running 447 routes. Duvernay is on pace for 418 routes run, but he's only on pace for 60 targets and 530 yards. He's clearly not being blocked by better receivers on the team any more than Hollywood was. Demarcus Robinson is slightly better in terms of targets per route, but he's still worse than any version of Brown during his 3 years here.

Or lets use yards per route run. Hollywood was 1.81, 1.72, and 1.61 for his 3 years. This is Duvernay's best year, and he's at 1.27. This is also Robinson's best year, and he's at 1.38. Neither player has anyone other than Andrews vulturing targets, but Hollywood had Andrews vulturing targets too.

I can keep going with the efficiency stats. Targets don't tell the whole story. If you're running routes and not getting targeted, that usually means you're not getting open, or you can't be trusted to get open early in the progression.

It's an extremely limited sample size, but if this is anywhere close to what Desean Jackson has left in the tank then he's our best WR by a long shot, but I don't know if he can stay healthy if we press him into a full game's worth of snaps.

And Brown wanted to leave. He respectfully asked for a trade. The Ravens didn't willingly give him away. Plan was to keep him. Why are we so hung up on a guy that did not want to be here?
And we turned him into a rookie center that has soldified a known hole, with all-pro potential.

With limited cap space, and other massive holes, they were limited.

My earlier post was simply stating the fact that guys like Allen and Tua had break outs that coincided with the addition of an alpha downfield threat.

As much as I love Andrews, and don't necessarily disagree that he is an alpha. He's not a downfield playmaker in the mold of Diggs or Hill. We have one guy that can make the tough play. Take him away, and we have DeMarcus Robinson and Duvernay.

[Old Man]

I want to win another championship at some point. That’s all. Silly me.

They’ve had 5 years to get close with this one, they haven’t. And the system is far more predictable than it was in 2019. It isn’t new anymore. It’s all on tape. This offense gets stymied way too often.

Most SB teams, the HC is important, but more importantly, the other coaches on the sideline play a pivoting role. Look at Jimmie Johnson's success, for the most part, it was due to Dave W and Norm running the  offense and defense.

 

Look at Joe Gibbs' success in DC, Ritchie P played a huge rule with their defense.

 

I dont see Harbs aligning himself up with quality coaches on his staff. Is that on him, the front office?????????

[BSLChrisStoner]

Stoner, those have been the cited reasons for a lackluster offense for two seasons now. Maybe people are tired of it?

Is Roman’s system too physical and confrontational? Does it lead to more injuries? Yes, while every team has injuries, and big ones, it does seem the Ravens have been especially snake bitten for a few years now.

Would having a more balanced system in general, not so dependent on the HB/TE and more creative and modern receiver routes make this team more insulated from the constant RB/TE/OL injuries (meaning their offense doesn’t disappear because other options are available).

I advocated for the Brown trade. So I am opening myself up to the “all over the place” argument. Or the emotional fragile one (right McNulty?). But what drives all this angst is knowing they should be better.

Largely without their best wr, best rb, best ot...they were 5th in offensive dvoa entering Sunday. So people can be sick of talking injuries (is a natural part of the game), but they do factor and the Ravens have generally overcome them anyway.

[Steve55]

Maybe its best to go 3 yrs at a time with Jackson. Give him his $50 guaranteed per season for 3 yrs but make it a 5 yr deal he can opt out in 3. Stretching the money out to 5 helps the cap & the opt out allows him to see where the team is in 3 yrs.

 

Mahomes 10 yr deal has opt outs as his cap # grows & players salaries increase.