Photo

Os Hot Stove


  • Please log in to reply
2547 replies to this topic

#1 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,211 posts

Posted 06 November 2022 - 12:35 AM

WS is over. Offseason officially has begun. First order of business would seem to be whether to pick up the option on Lyles.



#2 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,517 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 06 November 2022 - 10:21 AM

First, let's hope they turn the stove on this year.  As for Lyles, I suspect they save the 11 M and use it to add a better veteran starter.  That said, Lyles did more than expected this year and screamed great teammate.  If they decide to keep him, I am fine with that, as long as it does not stop them from adding other talent..


@mikeghg

#3 weird-O

weird-O

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,752 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 06 November 2022 - 10:35 AM

I haven't followed the MLB FA market for a few years, since the O's haven't participated in it for a few years. But doesn't a back of the rotation FA starter cost ~$10M? 

Innings eaters have their value.  


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#4 weird-O

weird-O

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,752 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 06 November 2022 - 10:35 AM

First, let's hope they turn the stove on this year. 

:D :D :D


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#5 Possibly Keith Hernandez

Possibly Keith Hernandez
  • Members
  • 15 posts

Posted 06 November 2022 - 01:18 PM

Elias should use that $10M towards a better SP.  The Orioles are an attractive landing, let's take advantage.



#6 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 55,491 posts

Posted 06 November 2022 - 01:35 PM


Elias should use that $10M towards a better SP. The Orioles are an attractive landing, let's take advantage.

I agree, but I'd pick the option up and then trade him away once they've acquired a better alternative (or two) to Lyles. Keeps him around as a backup plan if things go badly during the off-season. And actually probably is the cheaper route because you wouldn't have to pay his buyout.
  • Hooded Viper and BSLBobPhelan like this

#7 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,984 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 06 November 2022 - 05:07 PM

I didn't want to discuss Jake Cave in the Baseline thread (not the point, there) but we can probably throw it in here (was going to start "fringe moves").

 

While it's true that it's a minor move, it does have consequences (and possibly insight).

 

The don't need to give Jake Cave a 40-man spot to do a split contract.  We've seen many guys (like Harvey recently) get a split contract as a MiL deal that doesn't require the 40.  If they put him on the 40, then the move has more intent than 'depth'....because you don't need to sign Jake Cave, unless you want him.

 

Even if you just wanted AAA depth and he's from Hampton, VA and wants a chance to play near home, maybe grew up an O's fan, whatever, you can still get it done off of the 40.  The market will soon be flooded with non-tendered ARB1/2/3 guys with poor stats as we head to that deadline and rosters align.

 

He doesn't have to mean anything because you can release him with little consequence, but the fact that they are trying to do something with him - on the 40 now - is some indicator of a bigger intent, otherwise, why bother.

 

We'll see what the follow is...trade Santander? trade Stowers? 

 

Cave essentially is the player that many discussed in that comeback role.  We've seen suggestions like Pederson, Gallo, Conforto, Bellinger will be available, several others, I would have considered Jason Heyward (short term Odor role) in a trade with the Cubs if you wanted something from Chicago to do something else.  Most of these guys would fill the 2023-bridge-to-Cowser role.



#8 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,984 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 06 November 2022 - 05:15 PM

The Lyles decision comes in the next 5 days.

 

There is no new information for him and if they wanted him, they could announce it like many teams were doing today.  

 

First GM meetings are in Vegas this week (7-10 NOV) so they'll go there and see if anyone is interested in controlling his 2023 season for 11M.  It would save the Orioles 1M. The return would be modest.  If they don't have a trade in place (like Iglesias), they'll decline the option.



#9 weird-O

weird-O

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,752 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 07 November 2022 - 12:09 PM

I agree, but I'd pick the option up and then trade him away once they've acquired a better alternative (or two) to Lyles. Keeps him around as a backup plan if things go badly during the off-season. And actually probably is the cheaper route because you wouldn't have to pay his buyout.

Great approach


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#10 Slidemaster

Slidemaster

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,163 posts

Posted 07 November 2022 - 12:49 PM

I have a hard time believing they're going to find a league average-ish pitcher for cheaper than Lyles.
  • bmore_ken likes this

#11 mweb08

mweb08

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 29,405 posts
  • LocationRidgely's Delight

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:12 PM

I have a hard time believing they're going to find a league average-ish pitcher for cheaper than Lyles.


They should be trying to do better than league average-ish, and that's a generous description of Lyles.
  • Mackus, Coker and bmore_ken like this

#12 weird-O

weird-O

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,752 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:27 PM

They should be trying to do better than league average-ish, and that's a generous description of Lyles.

Keeping Lyles doesn't mean they 're all set for pitchers, or that he's the best they're going to do. He's a back of the rotation arm. Without doing the research, I'm guessing every team has one of those types. The primary role for those guys is to eat innings, and keep the team in the games he pitches. And $10M seems like the going rate for a Lyles type.   


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#13 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 148,535 posts

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:32 PM

They should be trying to do better than league average-ish, and that's a generous description of Lyles.


He's a bit below average in run prevention, but he was also 29th overall in IP, and tied for 15th in game started. 
Dependability has a lot of value imo. I think you could be a playoff team with a group of 'average' ish run prevention starters that were durable, but that's neither here nor there.

Totally agree that the O's should be adding a legitimate front-end starter to their rotation via FA or Trade.  Just think picking up his option should be easy for them.  $ shouldn't mean anything.  Can always move him later if you get to a point where you have 5 better options. 



 


  • Mackus likes this

#14 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 55,491 posts

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:37 PM

Declining his option will either be great news in that it means they're extremely confident that they'll bring in guys that are better than him or terrible news in that it means that they are so worried about paying a guy a couple million more than he's worth that they'll release him without any plan for replacement.

 

The decision doesn't doom them to any one path, but my skepticism about their actual intent to improve the team will be heightened if they decline the option. 



#15 Slidemaster

Slidemaster

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,163 posts

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:37 PM

They should be trying to do better than league average-ish, and that's a generous description of Lyles.


Keeping Lyles doesn't prevent them from acquiring someone better.

#16 mweb08

mweb08

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 29,405 posts
  • LocationRidgely's Delight

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:38 PM


Keeping Lyles doesn't mean they 're all set for pitchers, or that he's the best they're going to do. He's a back of the rotation arm. Without doing the research, I'm guessing every team has one of those types. The primary role for those guys is to eat innings, and keep the team in the games he pitches. And $10M seems like the going rate for a Lyles type.


The O's should be able to get a 91 ERA+ or better from various in house options, and those in house options should be knocked down the pecking order by at least one high level acquisition.

#17 Slidemaster

Slidemaster

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,163 posts

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:40 PM

Keep in mind also that teams need about 10 pitchers who can be called on to start a game. Lyles can be relied on to start multiple games credibly. The value he brings is worth 10 million or more IMO.

#18 mweb08

mweb08

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 29,405 posts
  • LocationRidgely's Delight

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:43 PM

Keeping Lyles doesn't prevent them from acquiring someone better.


He unnecessarily occupies a spot in the rotation when they should be doing better with who they're paying real money to start games while keeping spots open for some of their younger/cheaper arms like Grayson, Kremer, and Bradish.

#19 Old Man

Old Man

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,579 posts

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:44 PM

I think Lyles is history and I dont see them spending the money on FA signings. 

 

This payroll is driven with one thing in mind, cheap.


  • bmore_ken likes this

#20 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 55,491 posts

Posted 07 November 2022 - 02:50 PM

He unnecessarily occupies a spot in the rotation when they should be doing better with who they're paying real money to start games while keeping spots open for some of their younger/cheaper arms like Grayson, Kremer, and Bradish.

 

We wanna upgrade LF...are you non-tendering Hays?






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=  width=