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#41 JeremyStrain

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 08:59 AM

You can look at market size in two ways. One is by revenue brought in, that's not really a market thing, there are other factors that can inflate or deflate that, like TV deals. The TV deal obviously is a big point of contention here. First, MLB is actively trying to change the current set up to make the Nationals a more appealing purchase option, that will reduce the revenue that Angelos gets. Notice I said Angelos there, because HE owns MASN, not the O's, that is important. (Really, I should tag Matt Krem in on this, he and a few other people do a really good job on staying up on details of this more than I). Now back to revenue-market. In that term ANY MLB could be considered large market, but it's not really sustainable or they'd be doing it every year. One of the key issues to that sustainability part kind of ties into the second market view, that's distance to another franchise. Die hard fans will show up, thick and thin and support their team. Casual and bandwagon fans will disappear during the hard times, but will probably show up again when they win and things get exciting. When you've got another team in close proximity, that can pull a lot of the latter fans, so you can't really count on them when considering market size because you never REALLY know what they are going to do. These are the people that have both Nats and O's hats hanging in their closet but will act like they've always been a fan of whichever they are supporting at the time. Right now it looks like we are on the upswing and the Nats are rebuilding, so in theory their numbers should drop and ours should spike for a while, but still, that whole chunk of fans affects our market share and revenue and we can't really count on it because they are fluid.

 

The other way to view market size is actual home area, which is what the above is referencing when talking about it being the 4th largest market. That would be true if the Nats didn't exist, because the O's would have the entire DMV market. But with having one in each, they only get the Baltimore market which is actually about the same size as Cincinnati and in the bottom 3rd, it's not the combined market even though like mentioned before there is some bleed over with fans.

 

All that being said, Angelos has def been a tightwad and has been trying to only spend the money the team brings in but that's not how an owner should operate, when things are down they should have to put their own money in and recoup when things are good. I just wanted to nitpick about calling it a large market cause it's really not anymore, it's a split market and it operates differently than say NY or LA. But that's minor chirping because it's no excuse for not spending as an owner should.


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#42 weird-O

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 09:15 AM

I dont know where their payroll will come in next year. Im sure itll be under $100 mil. I do believe we will be active though. We will be in on FAs even if its only in the mid tier and I expect a lot of trade talk too. There is no reason not to believe Elias when he says its time to compete. Even if it is on a small payroll of 70 mil or so. We will be active

Personally, I'm not asking them to spend X (that's not to suggest that you were saying they should spend a certain amount). If they can find impact talent for less, that's just smart business and smart GMing. Yes, a superstar addition is always sexy. But I think we'll know if they're genuinely trying.  


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#43 McNulty

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 01:19 PM

Spottrac has them as the cheapest payroll in MLB.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

 

We can argue about where they fall in the mid-market range and thats fine.

 

Can you make a justified point that they are a small market team?

 

What I'm trying to tell you is that market size doesn't really matter.  ALL OF THE OWNERS are rolling in money.  San Diego is the perfect example of this: if they owner wants to win, they can spend.  Detroit too before Illitch died. 

 

This mid/small market crap is just cover so they can be cheap.  


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#44 bmore_ken

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 01:59 PM

Personally, I'm not asking them to spend X (that's not to suggest that you were saying they should spend a certain amount). If they can find impact talent for less, that's just smart business and smart GMing. Yes, a superstar addition is always sexy. But I think we'll know if their genuinely trying.  

Yep I believe the overall number is irrelevant. You can add a couple of solid SPs and an impact IFer without breaking the bank. 


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#45 weird-O

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 02:31 PM

What I'm trying to tell you is that market size doesn't really matter.  ALL OF THE OWNERS are rolling in money.  San Diego is the perfect example of this: if they owner wants to win, they can spend.  Detroit too before Illitch died. 

 

This mid/small market crap is just cover so they can be cheap.  

This is how I feel too. But I try to not say this to people, because I can't prove that I'm right. But I am absolutely confident that I am. Yes, some teams have more money than others. But every team/owner has the money to build a competitive team. 


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#46 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 02:50 PM

I dont know where their payroll will come in next year. Im sure itll be under $100 mil. I do believe we will be active though. We will be in on FAs even if its only in the mid tier and I expect a lot of trade talk too. There is no reason not to believe Elias when he says its time to compete. Even if it is on a small payroll of 70 mil or so. We will be active

 

I think you miss the point there. What happens next really isn't about Mike Elias, IMO. He will always be a player development guy at heart, and yes, that often lends itself to less expensive ML payrolls. But I think his comments are indicative that he is well aware that the club, and he, are at an inflection point in his tenure. The time has come where he is going to be judged by wins and losses at the big league level. So naturally he is going to want to begin boosting the payroll to give him the best chance of getting those wins.

 

That said, he has consistently thrown out qualifiers when he comments on escalating future payrolls (his "arbitration increases" comment over the summer, for one). Everyone can decide for themselves what he means when he does that, but I tend to believe that at the time he made those statements he didn't have even a ballpark idea of just how much his bosses would give him to spend this winter, and rather he simply relied on whatever non-specific promises they made when they hired him (that I'm sure were repeated to him since then).

 

Ultimately, this winter is not going to show us how serious Mike Elias is about trying to win. This winter is going to show us how serious the Angelos family, and John Angelos specifically, are about trying to win.


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#47 weird-O

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 03:10 PM

This winter is going to show us how serious the Angelos family, and John Angelos specifically, are about trying to win.

I really hope they want to win. Because, if they don't, I don't think I will bother myself with this team until that family is no longer connected to the team. For me, going cheap will cement who they are and forever will be, an ownership group that will never concern themselves with really trying to win. In a very real way (and this isn't hyperbole) my lifelong Orioles fandom, literally hangs in the balance.


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#48 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 03:34 PM

100%

Well said Mike Lowe.

“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

"It's liftoff from here" - after selling on 2022

"We're on a slight upward arc" - Winter Meetings 2022

"I think it's really hard to sit there and chart a course and say, 'We're likely to win the division.'" - Winter Meetings 2022

Mike Elias


#49 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 07:37 PM

I think you miss the point there. What happens next really isn't about Mike Elias, IMO. He will always be a player development guy at heart, and yes, that often lends itself to less expensive ML payrolls. But I think his comments are indicative that he is well aware that the club, and he, are at an inflection point in his tenure. The time has come where he is going to be judged by wins and losses at the big league level. So naturally he is going to want to begin boosting the payroll to give him the best chance of getting those wins.

 

That said, he has consistently thrown out qualifiers when he comments on escalating future payrolls (his "arbitration increases" comment over the summer, for one). Everyone can decide for themselves what he means when he does that, but I tend to believe that at the time he made those statements he didn't have even a ballpark idea of just how much his bosses would give him to spend this winter, and rather he simply relied on whatever non-specific promises they made when they hired him (that I'm sure were repeated to him since then).

 

Ultimately, this winter is not going to show us how serious Mike Elias is about trying to win. This winter is going to show us how serious the Angelos family, and John Angelos specifically, are about trying to win.

I agree its on ownership and yeah I have reservations. That said, I choose to believe Elias knows and has known the limits on where he can take the payroll. I dont think ownership is going to pull the rug out from under him and make him look like a fool



#50 weird-O

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 08:03 AM

The little candle flame of hope I have, is that Elias was a hot commodity before signing on with the O's. I don't think he would have taken the job, if it was the same old, same old Angelos business model. But talk is cheap, and so is the Angelos family.  


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#51 Old Man

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 08:06 AM

I agree its on ownership and yeah I have reservations. That said, I choose to believe Elias knows and has known the limits on where he can take the payroll. I dont think ownership is going to pull the rug out from under him and make him look like a fool

This is the same ownership that sent their manager packing after back to back ALCS visits.

 

Sorry this ownership doesnt care about public perception.



#52 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 09:48 AM

Conforto is an interesting target. LH power bat who gets on base. Prob will only be signing a 1 yr deal after missing '22

#53 Old Man

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 09:59 AM

Conforto is an interesting target. LH power bat who gets on base. Prob will only be signing a 1 yr deal after missing '22

Nice bat, but, appears to have trouble staying healthy. Not surprised that Seattle didnt want to pony up almost $20 mil.



#54 Mashed Potatoes

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 10:46 AM

Hot stove feels like a misnomer with Elias at the helm, perhaps "O's Bargain Bin Shopping"???


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#55 Old Man

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 10:47 AM

Hot stove feels like a misnomer with Elias at the helm, perhaps "O's Bargain Bin Shopping"???

DD got a ton of heat for dumpster diving.  I am fine with dumpster diving, as long as that is just one avenue to look for bodies.



#56 makoman

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 10:52 AM

DD got a ton of heat for dumpster diving.  I am fine with dumpster diving, as long as that is just one avenue to look for bodies.

Yeah Elias has been fine at dumpster diving too. The GG 3B, the shoulda been GG SS, and most of the excellent BP were all waiver claims.

 

Please spend some real money on known talent too, that's all.


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#57 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 10:59 AM

Balt Sun: Orioles free agency primer: Where might Baltimore strike in bid for ‘liftoff’?

https://www.baltimor...Wj8Rs5t9J859ni8



#58 weird-O

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 11:31 AM

Has anyone seen this?

 

I've never seen anything link this before, Trea Turner created his own FA hype video.   


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#59 Mike B

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 12:11 PM

Has anyone seen this?

 

I've never seen anything link this before, Trea Turner created his own FA hype video.   

Self Promotion.


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#60 Slidemaster

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 04:10 PM

The Orioles (astoundingly) have too many MLB ready/viable pieces that deserve playing time. If they don't make a trade for a VERY substantial upgrade at SP, I'm going to be very disappointed.




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