31 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Perhaps the most fixed position group as 2022 ends.  3 guys are locks and there are a bunch of guys who could be in the pen or could be in the rotation or Norfolk.  I think you can make a decent-looking bullpen just out of guys that are already here, but an addition at the back-end would make it look that much stronger.

 

Bautista will be the closer.  Tate and Perez (L) will be late-inning guys.

 

After that we move to less reliable options for middle relief. Baker, Krehbiel, Vespi (L)

 

And even less reliable options who could be stretched for long-relief: Voth, Baumann, Akin (L), Watkins, Zimmerman (L)

 

And some younger guys who could be assets that fit anywhere or could be in Norfolk or the rotation: Wells, Hall (L)

 

 

No Options:

Voth, Perez

 

Options:

Hall, Watkins, Vespi, Baumann, Wells, Krehbiel, Baker, Tate, Bautista

 

 

Sulser, Vallmont, Reed, Head, Gillaspie, Ellis, Cano are also currently on the 40-man but I expect to be jettisoned to make space for better guys.  Many of these guys would probably clear waivers and stay with the organization, just off the 40-man.  Haven't looked too deeply at who needs to be added to avoid exposure to Rule 5.

[Mackus]

I'd really like to add one more strong relief pitcher. Doesn't need to be a $15M/year closer type, could be a good setup available for about half of that.  That gives us even more depth if everyone is good and helps the team weather if one of the 3 guys we actually trust after 2022 falls back or gets hurt.

 

I strongly lean towards sending Hall to Nofolk's rotation, but the idea of him as a lefty fireman is enticing as well.

Wells also could start, but I am hopeful that we add enough SP in the offseason that he doesn't need to and we can use him in the bullpen where he had success in 2021.  I think Voth is a similar guy and would be near the front of the line heading into ST.

The final 2 or 3 spots can be a Norfolk shuttle amongst Akin, Baumann, Baker, Krehbiel, Vespi and any others.

[dude]

I think Tyler Wells is the wildcard in the pitching alignment.

 

I liked him in the multi-inning bullpen role and would have left him there.  They wanted to make him a starter and that's awesome, except now you don't really need him as a starter.  Every player has a series of priorities as they move through their professional career.  Being a starter** will earn him more money than if he's a setup guy.  A lot more money.  When you move him back to the bullpen you are taking money away (perception) from him.  His agent will argue in arbitration that he's a starter in the bullpen, the Team argues he's in the bullpen.  When guys fail as a starter (think Tommy Hunter) and the option is pitch well in the bullpen or don't pitch in the Majors, that's easy to accept that role, thrive in it even.  But everyone needs to get to that point in their priorities. 

 

If Wells goes to the bullpen, he really needs to be OK with it.  He'll say the right things because he's probably not a douche, but if that's going to be a personal frustration for him, then it has the potential to be an issue for collective performance.  But he's either in the rotation or he's in the bullpen.  He's worked out well as a Rule 5 selection.  Now 2 years of service, will be arbitration eligible (full year) in 2024.

 

**assuming some level of current expected performance

[Mike B]

I think Baker did himself a lot of good down the stretch.  He was very good his last 10-16 outings.  I think he can be added to the group of Bautista, Perez and Tate as people who will very likely be in next years pen.

Joey K and Akin struggled down the stretch but for a large part of the season were good.  The pen in general got ridden hard, but some weathered the over use better than others.

As you mentioned there are a number of guys, like Cano, Head, Reed, Vallmount etc. who will lose their 40 man spot to be replaced by a lot of the young talent that will make their way to Baltimore next year.

[Mike B]

I'd really like to add one more strong relief pitcher. Doesn't need to be a $15M/year closer type, could be a good setup available for about half of that.  That gives us even more depth if everyone is good and helps the team weather if one of the 3 guys we actually trust after 2022 falls back or gets hurt.

 

I strongly lean towards sending Hall to Nofolk's rotation, but the idea of him as a lefty fireman is enticing as well.

Wells also could start, but I am hopeful that we add enough SP in the offseason that he doesn't need to and we can use him in the bullpen where he had success in 2021.  I think Voth is a similar guy and would be near the front of the line heading into ST.

The final 2 or 3 spots can be a Norfolk shuttle amongst Akin, Baumann, Baker, Krehbiel, Vespi and any others.

A solid, high leverage guy is a must IMO.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Disagree about using payroll on the bullpen. That's the money ball area these days IMO. Find guys who are failing as starters but have the stuff/spin rate, etc. that will work. If this team really is going to be a lower-budget team like the Rays, spending on the bullpen seems like a misallocation of precious resources. Of course, that angers me, but just saying, if that is how it's going to be, I don't think BP is a place where we need to spend. 

[makoman]

I think Baker did himself a lot of good down the stretch.  He was very good his last 10-16 outings.  I think he can be added to the group of Bautista, Perez and Tate as people who will very likely be in next years pen.

Joey K and Akin struggled down the stretch but for a large part of the season were good.  The pen in general got ridden hard, but some weathered the over use better than others.

As you mentioned there are a number of guys, like Cano, Head, Reed, Vallmount etc. who will lose their 40 man spot to be replaced by a lot of the young talent that will make their way to Baltimore next year.

Yeah, this may be splitting hairs but I would have Baker, maybe not with the top tier but above the Krehbiel tier. Other than ERA his stats are basically the same as Perez, I'm talking H, BB, HR, K per 9, and he had the best FIP on the team of anyone with over 15 innings. His problem was he was bad in high leverage, which is obviously an issue in relief, so sure he's not quite up with the other 3. But a solid 4th guy, or 5th if someone better comes along.

[ivanbalt]

Disagree about using payroll on the bullpen. That's the money ball area these days IMO. Find guys who are failing as starters but have the stuff/spin rate, etc. that will work. If this team really is going to be a lower-budget team like the Rays, spending on the bullpen seems like a misallocation of precious resources. Of course, that angers me, but just saying, if that is how it's going to be, I don't think BP is a place where we need to spend. 

Good point.  Didn't O'Day/Britton take up a good chunk of money (for BP arms) during the "high spending" days?

[Mackus]

I'm not yet willing to accept the "this team will spend like the Rays" thesis.  Something near the middle of the pack, not bottom third of the league like the Rays (who are usually bottom 5), is what I'm expecting and would need to not be upset about it.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean they need to reach that rank in 2023.  I could see a slower ramp up.  But the market supports more than it does in Tampa.  

[BaltBird 24]

Find 3-4 good arms to go with Bautista, Tate, Baker, and Perez. Should be able to do that with what is already in the system.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I feel like there are enough BP options in house. Not saying I wouldnt like another but I actually think if you're gonna go get someone you do spend on a proven high leverage guy. 

[dude]

I'd really like to add one more strong relief pitcher. Doesn't need to be a $15M/year closer type, could be a good setup available for about half of that.  That gives us even more depth if everyone is good and helps the team weather if one of the 3 guys we actually trust after 2022 falls back or gets hurt.

 

You win!!

 

Again, I like the Givens signing just fine, but not sure it moves the needle in terms of expected performance, but if we think it adds to the veteranosity, I'm the veteranosity guy.

 

It does take flexibility away for another spot in the bullpen.

 

Closer: Bautista

RH: Tate

RH: Tyler Wells

RH: Givens

RH: Baker

LH: Perez

LH: Akin

???: That basically leaves one spot to play with in terms of pushing a starter out (signing another starter) or pushing IL Hall and/or GRod (or someone else) to Norfolk.

 

Starters in this alignment would be Gibson, GRod, Bradish, Kremer, Voth

 

Couple guys don't have options and the FA signings don't.  It's a bit of a numbers and options game.

[Mackus]

Perez, Voth, and Givens are the only guys that can't be optioned.  Wells, Baker, Akin, Hall, and Krehbiel all have options.  Hell even Tate and Bautista have options if something goes really sideways.

 

I like the depth.  Would've strongly preferred a bigger hammer than Givens, but adding a RP is a good thing.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Only vaguely joking that if they're bringing back Givens you might as well kick the tires on Britton for a LHP option

[dude]

Perez, Voth, and Givens are the only guys that can't be optioned.  Wells, Baker, Akin, Hall, and Krehbiel all have options.  Hell even Tate and Bautista have options if something goes really sideways.

 

I like the depth.  Would've strongly preferred a bigger hammer than Givens, but adding a RP is a good thing.

 

Technically, you are certainly correct.  Functionally, I'm not sure you have quite that much latitude.  You start sending performing guys to the minors, you may have some other issues.  I'm not talking about permission inside MLB rules.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Nice bullpen but that rotation isn't scaring anybody.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Nice bullpen but that rotation isn't scaring anybody.

GRod and Bradish both have potential to be #2s by the end of the year. Legit #2s.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

GRod and Bradish both have potential to be #2s by the end of the year. Legit #2s.

While I don't see Bradish with that potential ok. Great. then we have 2 #2s and 7 #5s......lol. With Means being a wild card.

 

But even if you are correct that doesn't do much for 2023 which you seem fine with semi standing pat and waiting till 2024.

[Mike B]

I am trying to be a fan here and not trying too be to critical.  I always liked Givens, and I like bringing him back but the coast seems high, especially when we are supposedly in the market for a good starter and a middle of the order bat.  I don't dislike any of the signings as individual moves, but it seems like we are paying over market price for the 3 guys we have signed because we are only locking them in for 1 year.

[Mike B]

While I don't see Bradish with that potential ok. Great. then we have 2 #2s and 7 #5s......lol. With Means being a wild card.

 

But even if you are correct that doesn't do much for 2023 which you seem fine with semi standing pat and waiting till 2024.

Bradish is an interesting case.  When he was good, he was really good, but when he was bad, he was terrible.  I think we saw growth as the year went on.  Again trying to be positive and a fan, I could see him developing nicely.  I think we sometimes forget how hard it is to make the jump from the minors to the big leagues.  I am not sure I agree with 2035 about both GRod and Bradish both being #2's,, next year, but I think it is possible that both can be solid as the year goes on.