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2022 Game 4: 10/2 Buffalo 1PM


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 08:59 AM

ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives the Ravens a 54.2% chance of winning. 

 

The Bills are 3 point favorites. 

 

The Over / Under is 53.5. 



#2 Mackus

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 09:02 AM

I realize the point spread reflects public opinion of the game and that the Matchup Predictor is a modeling tool, but that seems like quite a big difference of opinion between the two.

54% is akin to a 2-2.5 point spread. So it's a big gap between the two sources. Get your money on the Ravens if you believe in the Matchup Predictor!

#3 Mackus

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 09:03 AM

I'm bearish on this game, unfortunately. Hope to be pleasantly surprised.

#4 Biggsy

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 09:51 AM

I'm not expecting a win. Historically, that is exactly when the Ravens play their best football.

Josh Allen is locked in. But so is Lamar. Should hopefully be a fun game.

#5 russsnyder

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 11:10 AM

I realize the point spread reflects public opinion of the game and that the Matchup Predictor is a modeling tool, but that seems like quite a big difference of opinion between the two.

54% is akin to a 2-2.5 point spread. So it's a big gap between the two sources. Get your money on the Ravens if you believe in the Matchup Predictor!


Yeah, it's a pretty strange presentation.
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#6 Slidemaster

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 12:41 PM

45-27, Buffalo.

#7 cprenegade

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 07:50 PM

Something to consider for this game:  weather.  Right now the remnants of hurricane Ian are projected to come up the east coast and the entire weekend here is looking like a wash out.  The Ravens game might be played in a steady down pour with up to 3" of rain forecast for the Baltimore area from Saturday night through Monday.  That can have a huge effect on both offenses.  



#8 Mackus

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 07:56 PM

Lamar was bad but Allen was even worse in the cold and heavy winds of that playoff game. Not sure a game nearly two years ago means much but it's something.

#9 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 08:03 PM

So not 45-27. 



#10 Mike B

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 09:53 PM

Something to consider for this game:  weather.  Right now the remnants of hurricane Ian are projected to come up the east coast and the entire weekend here is looking like a wash out.  The Ravens game might be played in a steady down pour with up to 3" of rain forecast for the Baltimore area from Saturday night through Monday.  That can have a huge effect on both offenses.  

I went out and bought new rain gear, so there will be no rain.


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#11 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 10:34 PM

Pouring rain certainly helps us

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

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#12 Slidemaster

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Posted 27 September 2022 - 12:27 AM

If it's raining that changes things.

24-17

#13 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 27 September 2022 - 10:29 AM

Rain or not, I'm going to predict opposite week for the Ravens. The defense shows up but the offense sputters. Due for a failed, unnecessary 2 point try at some point that bites them in the end.

 

Buffalo 17 - Ravens 16 


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#14 NewMarketSean

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 03:15 AM

Bills looked unstoppable until they ran into the Miami juggernaut. Thought this was a no-chancer before week 3. Think it will be close but I don’t see them pulling it off. Buffalo has had Lamar’s number for a few years now. 20-18 Bills.
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#15 Steve55

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 06:41 AM

Weather will be a factor as will the Bills D missing some players. Could be a back & forth game or slug fest.



#16 makoman

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 07:37 AM

Buffalo has had Lamar’s number for a few years now. 20-18 Bills.

If I was forced to bet I'd probably take the Bills, but where does this come from? Lamar and Allen are each 1-1 as starters against the other, with 1 bad game (arguably both of Allen's were bad as Mackus said), both in Buffalo with heavy wind. Lamar's bad one was more recent and the playoffs, but I don't think those 2019-20 games are all that relevant today on either side. This is no KC or even Pitt with history of several tough games.



#17 hallas

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 04:59 PM

I've got a good feeling about this game.  It's going to be a shootout.  34-31 Ravens.  Stanley comes back and laughs in the face of opposing DEs, and JPP makes an impact in his first game.



#18 Biggsy

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Posted 29 September 2022 - 06:30 AM

I've got a good feeling about this game. It's going to be a shootout. 34-31 Ravens. Stanley comes back and laughs in the face of opposing DEs, and JPP makes an impact in his first game.



Love the optimism. I think we have a chance. If the defense decides to show up, we win. If they play like the 2nd half of Miami, the shootout is on.

#19 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 29 September 2022 - 02:38 PM

The Bank: Previewing Week 4 Vs. The Buffalo Bills

 

 

BSL: Next Game Up: Bills at Ravens

 

BSL: Lamar Jackson's hot start even more impressive considering Ravens' battered roster

 

 

 




#20 Bmore Irish

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Posted 01 October 2022 - 07:47 AM

I've seen this stat a few times now: the Bills lead the league in pressure rate, but are dead last in blitz rate.

 

They have a very good defensive line that's getting pressure rushing four. So while Lamar's been great against the blitz this season, he's going to have to navigate pressure this week while the Bills have extra defenders in coverage. On the back end, the Buffalo secondary is more banged up than the Ravens, which could be an equalizer.

 

This breakdown on what the Dolphins did to frustrate Josh Allen last week gives a decent blueprint on defense https://youtu.be/MzDQuDsnYts

 

I figured a heavy dose of cover 2 was coming against Miami, which wasn't the case during some of the biggest plays in the 4th quarter of that game. Macdonald ought to put two defenders back there more often this week, even if he's rotating someone late.






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