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2022 Game 147: 9/20 Detroit 7:05PM


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#21 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 02:59 PM

Should be Stowers > Aguilar. Stowers has one plate appearance versus a lefty despite hitting them better than RHP in his minor league career.

Stowers needs to worry about PT vs righties. 



#22 Mackus

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:03 PM

Aguilar is .786 and Hays is .779 career vs LHP. So it really does come down to Mullins vs McKenna. Its nowhere near the crime you guys make it out to be

 

Chirinos is 824 v lefties for his career and higher than Rutschman this year.  We should bench Adley!

 

Sometimes its simply about who is clearly the better player.  Finding a lefty to bench Mullins against when he needs an off day is a good idea.  Benching Mullins every time we face a lefty so we can get Hays or Aguilar into the lineup is overthinking things.  Just play Ced.  This is stupid.  Hyde's lost me as a strategist over the past month or so when things started to really matter.


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#23 BaltBird 24

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:11 PM

Dumb lineup. No way I am batting our best hitter leadoff. 3rd or 4th and freaking leave him there.


Batting order generally doesn't matter much, but you want your best hitters to get the most opportunities to bat... so the higher in the order the better. Henderson and Rutschman should always be 1 and 2.
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#24 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:16 PM

Chirinos is 824 v lefties for his career and higher than Rutschman this year. We should bench Adley!

Sometimes its simply about who is clearly the better player. Finding a lefty to bench Mullins against when he needs an off day is a good idea. Benching Mullins every time we face a lefty so we can get Hays or Aguilar into the lineup is overthinking things. Just play Ced. This is stupid. Hyde's lost me as a strategist over the past month or so when things started to really matter.

Yeah we arent going to debate starting a guy who has a 550 OPS vs lefties this year.

#25 BaltBird 24

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:16 PM

Hyde's lost me as a strategist over the past month or so when things started to really matter.


Maybe he's just not a good in game manager? We haven't really had anything to base his actual in game strategy since it's basically been a nightly beating since he was hired.

#26 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:17 PM

You can give me the numbers and its a fair argument for all the guys but the handedness matters



#27 BaltBird 24

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:18 PM

Yeah we arent going to debate starting a guy who has a 550 OPS vs lefties this year.


You wanted to include Aguilar's career OPS VS LHP despite his .580 OPS against LHP this season.

#28 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:19 PM

McKenna is a very good defender as well so the need for Mullins glove in the lineup isnt as strong either



#29 Mackus

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:21 PM

Maybe he's just not a good in game manager? We haven't really had anything to base his actual in game strategy since it's basically been a nightly beating since he was hired.

 

The lineups are intentional and certainly have input from other people, so that's just a matter of a difference in value of what a shorter sample of data tells you and how important platoon advantages are.  I'd roll with the overall clearly better player and not just the one who's been slightly better in similar splits over a short period of time.  Especially in Mullins case where he's got recent history of being quite good in this particular split.  At some point the data is big enough for long enough to tell you something with more confidence, but I don't think we're there yet.  I'd trust Mullins tonight against a LHP if the game was on the line over Hays or Aguilar.

 

The bullpen moves I've disagreed with are tougher.  Its hard to know who's available and for what and how long they need to get ready from the side.  But the moves I've questioned aren't really ones I didn't think to question until after things went wrong.  They were red flags as the decision was being made.  Some have worked out fine, so he gets credit for those.  But others blew up and he's gotta take the blame on those ones, too.  

 

I don't think his job is in any jeopardy for 2023.  But whereas when this stretch run started we couldn't really say what we thought of him as a tactician, I now have an impression of him as we head into a season with actual expectations and its not currently a positive one.


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#30 Mackus

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:24 PM

McKenna is a very good defender as well so the need for Mullins glove in the lineup isnt as strong either

 

More than one outfielder plays. Hays I still think has mostly been ok, but others have pointed out that he's been slipping as his injuries have mounted.  Whatever the case, even at full strength McKenna is a defensive upgrade over him and a big one over Santander or a reduced capacity Hays if that's real.

 

Choose one of Hays or Aguilar to bench.  Mullins in CF and then either McKenna & Santander with Aguilar at DH or McKenna & Hays with Santander at DH.  Either of those seems like a pretty easily superior option to me than Mullins on the bench.

 

The good news is he does get him into the game as soon as the starter is gone.  Hopefully that's early.



#31 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 04:55 PM

Batting order generally doesn't matter much, but you want your best hitters to get the most opportunities to bat... so the higher in the order the better. Henderson and Rutschman should always be 1 and 2.

I understand your point. We'll just disagree a bit.

Mullins

Rutschman

Henderson



#32 makoman

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 05:21 PM

Best hitters 1, 2, 4. 1 is good at OBP, 4 is good at SLG, 2 is good at both.

Next is 5 then 3.

6-9 is the remaining in order from best to worst.

I’m good with Adley 2nd and Gunnar either 1 or 4 for the next 5 years.

#33 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 05:57 PM

Anybody know over the course of a season what the total at bats difference would be in the top 4 spots?



#34 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 06:03 PM

Anybody know over the course of a season what the total at bats difference would be in the top 4 spots?

 

Its about 1/10th of a plate appearance per spot.


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#35 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 06:17 PM

Nice - just what the offense needed, Adley not even getting a first inning AB.

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#36 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 06:40 PM

The dreaded collapse was my worst fear as far as scenarios for how this season would end. That’s what is happening. Sucks.

They’re 5-9 in their last 14.

“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

"It's liftoff from here" - after selling on 2022

"We're on a slight upward arc" - Winter Meetings 2022

"I think it's really hard to sit there and chart a course and say, 'We're likely to win the division.'" - Winter Meetings 2022

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#37 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 06:40 PM

And Voth gives up a 2 run shot to the #9 hitter ....a guy who had hit 1 all year so far.....



#38 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 06:41 PM

Its about 1/10th of a plate appearance per spot.

Are you saying per game? Certainly its more than that over a whole season.



#39 russsnyder

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 06:41 PM

Batting order generally doesn't matter much, but you want your best hitters to get the most opportunities to bat... so the higher in the order the better. Henderson and Rutschman should always be 1 and 2.


I agree with this. Get your best hitters the Abs. As an aside, Henderson can flat out fly. If Mullins is not in the li n.v wuo, Henderson is a good choice to lead off.
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams

#40 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 06:42 PM

The dreaded collapse was my worst fear as far as scenarios for how this season would end. That’s what is happening. Sucks.

They’re 5-9 in their last 14.

Relax. They are 8-9 in Sept. its not ideal but it isnt a collapse. After they win tonight it will be back to .500






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