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Gunnar Henderson is BA's #1 Prospect


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#21 makoman

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 02:57 PM

All credit to Cowser for what he is doing. I was a fan when he was drafted but I started doubting wjile he was in A+. I would think some people still have his K rate in Aberdeen in mind. Along with questionable power. I know he has 8 in Bowie already but do we think he is a consistent 20+ HR guy in MLB

Keith Law is still apparently holding Aberdeen against him so I'm sure he isn't the only one.

 

Right now all his #s at Bowie are better than Adley's in 2021 except K rate. Cowser's a year younger. 140 PAs is getting to be a real # to take seriously. If there's a scouting reason to be anti that'd be fine, but I haven't really seen one.

 

CC: .355/.486/.636, 203 wRC+, 15.7% BB, 22.9% K, .282 ISO, 7 2B 8 HR in 140 PAs 

AR: .271/.392/.508, 145 wRC+, 15.4% BB, 15.9% K, .237 ISO, 16 2B 18 HR in 358 PAs


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#22 Mackus

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 03:10 PM

Keith Law is still apparently holding Aberdeen against him so I'm sure he isn't the only one.

 

Right now all his #s at Bowie are better than Adley's in 2021 except K rate. Cowser's a year younger. 140 PAs is getting to be a real # to take seriously. If there's a scouting reason to be anti that'd be fine, but I haven't really seen one.

 

CC: .355/.486/.636, 203 wRC+, 15.7% BB, 22.9% K, .282 ISO, 7 2B 8 HR in 140 PAs 

AR: .271/.392/.508, 145 wRC+, 15.4% BB, 15.9% K, .237 ISO, 16 2B 18 HR in 358 PAs

 

Was curious about how he'd have to hit to fall to even with Rutschman in the same number of PAs.  217/332/426 over the next 216 PA would get him to the same slash line.


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#23 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 03:22 PM

Acuna is the only guy to rocket up like this. Pretty amazing.

Also just overall, getting a #1 ranking is a pretty damn good omen for your future. Profar and Young the only guys I'd look at as busts. Hamilton but for different reasons and he got it back.


Good stuff. Didn’t realize how much of just about a sure thing being the #1 is. Good to know what the expectations are, and glad we didn’t trade him.
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#24 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 03:23 PM

Now I gotta see if I have any Gunnar 1st Bowman’s and get those things up on eBay :)
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#25 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 03:29 PM


Was curious about how he'd have to hit to fall to even with Rutschman in the same number of PAs. 217/332/426 over the next 216 PA would get him to the same slash line.

Only you

#26 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 03:31 PM

What a miss on Profar. I gotta go look at his minor league numbers.

#27 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 03:36 PM


What a miss on Profar. I gotta go look at his minor league numbers.

He does have 3.5 bWar this year. Just 29. Book not closed

#28 BSLBradJohnson

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 04:31 PM

Yea, Profar wasn't really a miss. Dude's health blew up on him for half a decade.

 

The main knock on Cowser is the power really isn't built to play. But I comped Alek Thomas before, and Cowser also has something like a more athletic Brandon Nimmo starter kit. The list makers are wrong to not have him higher. Should be in the neighborhood of Robert Hassell.



#29 hallas

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 04:43 PM


Good stuff. Didn’t realize how much of just about a sure thing being the #1 is. Good to know what the expectations are, and glad we didn’t trade him.


This is something that came to me when Fangraphs started writing articles about prospect valuations. The main takeaway is that being a number 1 draft pick is miles different from being rated a #1 prospect. Obviously the caveat here is that BA is only one publication, but they tend to represent a decent consensus most of the time and they've gotten pretty good at being able to project top talent once they hit pro ball. If they say that a prospect is a 70 or 80, then chances are he's going to perform like one unless he gets hurt.
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#30 hallas

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 04:46 PM


What a miss on Profar. I gotta go look at his minor league numbers.


He OPSed .807 in AAA as an elite defender SS at the age of 20 when he got that prospect ranking. It was well deserved. His health has just been a train wreck, but it's pretty hard to project health.

#31 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 05:45 PM

Sucks Grayson got hurt or we’d maybe have 1 and 2.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

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#32 Mackus

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 05:48 PM


Sucks Grayson got hurt or we’d maybe have 1 and 2.

I'd be pretty furious if Rodriguez was still eligible if he hadn't gotten hurt.
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#33 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:09 PM

Can’t wait to see him in Baltimore.

I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve checked his box score this year and wasn’t impressed. Just a total stud.

Are there any concerns with him whatsoever with the bat? What’s his weakness?

“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

"It's liftoff from here" - after selling on 2022

"We're on a slight upward arc" - Winter Meetings 2022

"I think it's really hard to sit there and chart a course and say, 'We're likely to win the division.'" - Winter Meetings 2022

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#34 Mackus

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:11 PM

Can’t wait to see him in Baltimore.

I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve changed his box score this year and wasn’t impressed. Just a total stud.

Are there any concerns with him whatsoever with the bat? What’s his weakness?

Left-handed pitching. But he's improved that quite a bit since his promotion to AAA.

2022 - 702 OPS (113 PA)
2021 - 642 (123)
2019 - 641 (28)
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#35 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:13 PM

Can’t wait to see him in Baltimore.

I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve changed his box score this year and wasn’t impressed. Just a total stud.

Are there any concerns with him whatsoever with the bat? What’s his weakness?

Doesnt seem like much. Hes a stud.

#36 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:17 PM


What’s his weakness?

 

Still looking for it.



#37 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:19 PM

Like if we are nitpicking. What maybe more power potential.

#38 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:22 PM

Good stuff.

As far as power, at least he’s left-handed.

“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

"It's liftoff from here" - after selling on 2022

"We're on a slight upward arc" - Winter Meetings 2022

"I think it's really hard to sit there and chart a course and say, 'We're likely to win the division.'" - Winter Meetings 2022

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#39 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:23 PM

Im not even sure the power is a nitpick concern tbh.

#40 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:24 PM

Nickle complains a lot less these days. Weird.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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