431 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I assume we will find out soon enough if this Correa rumor is true. I don't expect them to win the bidding war for him but just knowing that they put a 10 year 300+ offer on the table is big. And no I dont think Correa is some one off case because Elias knows him or drafted him. If they are willing to spend big money on him they are willing to spend big money elsewhere or sign a couple of mid tier guys that equal Correa's salary.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I assume we will find out soon enough if this Correa rumor is true. I don't expect them to win the bidding war for him but just knowing that they put a 10 year 300+ offer on the table is big. And no I dont think Correa is some one off case because Elias knows him or drafted him. If they are willing to spend big money on him they are willing to spend big money elsewhere or sign a couple of mid tier guys that equal Correa's salary.

There is zero evidence whatsoever they’re willing to spend that money, until they do. I couldn’t disagree more that even making the offer is big.

[Mackus]

I assume we will find out soon enough if this Correa rumor is true. I don't expect them to win the bidding war for him but just knowing that they put a 10 year 300+ offer on the table is big. And no I dont think Correa is some one off case because Elias knows him or drafted him. If they are willing to spend big money on him they are willing to spend big money elsewhere or sign a couple of mid tier guys that equal Correa's salary.

 

Maybe its just cynicism, but a big offer isn't very meaningful if it's non-competitive.  Getting details of a non-winning offer will be tricky, but we know the O's rarely (never) are setting the market with a huge offer and that they really like deferred money and other contractual things that lessen the value of the deal.  I don't see a lot of ways that I'll award them credit for trying if they don't sign him.  I'd need to hear Correa say something like "I turned down more money from Baltimore to sign <wherever>".  If they spend big on someone else like Story or Bryant, that would be a way of making a hypothetical Correa offer feel real.

[Mackus]

They will spend. It might not be the payroll or the caliber of player you prefer but they will spend.

 

The amount they spend isn't as important to me as the way in which it can be spent.  I still think it'll be heavy ownership interference.  If Elias could spend up to $125M or $150M in some seasons, however he wanted, I think that would be good enough to contend more often than not over a longer haul.  I have little hope that this will happen.  It's not a set budget, but random dollars doled out piecemeal if ownership thinks it's winning on one specific deal.  I don't think the "new" owners are separate from the "old" owners.  The sons have been involved for a long time, including the duration of the last good stretch when it wasn't raw dollars that was the problem but all the strings and hoops attached any time management wanted to spend.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Maybe its just cynicism, but a big offer isn't very meaningful if it's non-competitive.  Getting details of a non-winning offer will be tricky, but we know the O's rarely (never) are setting the market with a huge offer and that they really like deferred money and other contractual things that lessen the value of the deal.  I don't see a lot of ways that I'll award them credit for trying if they don't sign him.  I'd need to hear Correa say something like "I turned down more money from Baltimore to sign <wherever>".  If they spend big on someone else like Story or Bryant, that would be a way of making a hypothetical Correa offer feel real.

I probably shouldn't be going down this  path until, if, we find out if this rumor is true.  I read that they were going to stay on him after the lockout is over. Surely we will hear about it if it is true. Part of me still expects them to act like the Rays who never give out this kind of FA contract.  Im down to give them credit if they  make a legit offer. I have no problem if they specifically targeted Correa this year. A year or two earlier because of the fit. There is no need to go get Bryant this offseason. Story either IMO. Etc Etc. They are older and a step down. Now in a year or two I would expect that money to be used on those type of 2nd tier guys

[BobPhelan]

I think they’re trying to be a hybrid of the Rays and Astros. We will find out very soon (next 2-3 years) if they can pull it off.

[weird-O]

The amount they spend isn't as important to me as the way in which it can be spent.  I still think it'll be heavy ownership interference.  If Elias could spend up to $125M or $150M in some seasons, however he wanted, I think that would be good enough to contend more often than not over a longer haul.  I have little hope that this will happen.  It's not a set budget, but random dollars doled out piecemeal if ownership thinks it's winning on one specific deal.  I don't think the "new" owners are separate from the "old" owners.  The sons have been involved for a long time, including the duration of the last good stretch when it wasn't raw dollars that was the problem but all the strings and hoops attached any time management wanted to spend.

Great breakdown of their business habits. The only fantasy that still remains, is the idea that the Sons never liked how the team was run, but they didn't have final say on the procedures. And now that they do have final say, they'll follow the traditional model of setting a budget and allowing their GM to use as he wants.  

[weird-O]

I think they’re trying to be a hybrid of the Rays and Astros. We will find out very soon (next 2-3 years) if they can pull it off.

I think that hybrid would result in a consistently competitive team. 

[Mackus]

I probably shouldn't be going down this  down the path until, if, we find out if this rumor is true.  I read that they were going to stay on him after the lockout is over. Surely we will hear about it if it is true. Part of me still expects them to act like the Rays who never give out this kind of FA contract.  Im down to give them credit if they  make a legit offer. I have no problem if they specifically targeted Correa this year. A year or two earlier because of the fit. There is no need to go get Bryant this offseason. Story either IMO. Etc Etc. They are older and a step down. Now in a year or two I would expect that money to be used on those type of 2nd tier guys

 

I wasn't trying to say that if they can't get Correa, go get Story or Bryant (though...I'd be fine with that).  Was trying to say that going to sign another big guy would be one way for me to feel that this rumored offer to Correa was legit and not just for show.  I'll probably consider the offer pretty fictitious if Correa signs elsewhere.  I'll have a hard time being convinced that the Orioles made a seriously competitive offer that they were actually willing to spend but Correa turned it down.  Not impossible, but difficult to believe.

 

Regarding the bolded, I am too.  I'm just not going to take their word for it that the offer was legit.  I'd need to have some strong supporting evidence and the offer would need to be very close if not greater than what he ended up signing for elsewhere.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I understand the cynicism. Its just frustrating at times. Im positive Elias is doing a lot of good things on the player development side. Just have to hope ownership will step up when necessary.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I understand the cynicism. Its just frustrating at times. Im positive Elias is doing a lot of good things on the player development side. Just have to hope ownership will step up when necessary.

I base my hope off of evidence. I tried it the other way, when I was brought up in a cult-like church, not really my thing. But if there's real evidence, I'll buy in. 

 

Agree with you about Elias. And none of my posts in this thread are directed at him in any way. 

[Mackus]

Just have to hope ownership will step up when necessary.

 

I have that hope.  I just don't have that belief.

[weird-O]

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Look, no one would have ever believed an Angelos ownership group would dive head first into the Int market. Nor have we had a commitment to player development like we are seeing now since the old Oriole Way times. Probably 40 years. There is evidence in some forms out there. Doesnt mean they aren't going to be the Rays and have a small market payroll

[makoman]

If they really offered 10/320 that’s a real offer that can’t be called a “let’s hope he doesn’t accept” offer. But if he doesn’t sign here we’ll probably never hear real numbers, and even if we do no one will ever believe those numbers, as this thread shows.

One thing, if this was all just a Boras tactic I don’t see why we’d be hearing only from con las bases llenas. I’d think there’d be more noise from the usual Boras suspects like Heyman. The reporter is Puerto Rican like Correa, maybe there is a link somewhere, who knows?

[weird-O]

Look, no one would have ever believed an Angelos ownership group would dive head first into the Int market. Nor have we had a commitment to player development like we are seeing now since the old Oriole Way times. Probably 40 years. There is evidence in some forms out there.

Those changes have come, since Peter has become incapacitated. Peter was specifically apposed to being active in the Int'l market. I think his objection to the most talent rich part of the planet was nothing short of bigotry. Player development isn't new, it's just better because he isn't walking into the war room and telling his top exec who to draft. 

 

But significant FA money is a whole other animal. And so far, the only thing Elias has said about that topic is essentially, we aren't that kind of team. 

[weird-O]

If they really offered 10/320 that’s a real offer that can’t be called a “let’s hope he doesn’t accept” offer. But if he doesn’t sign here we’ll probably never hear real numbers, and even if we do no one will ever believe those numbers, as this thread shows.

One thing, if this was all just a Boras tactic I don’t see why we’d be hearing only from con las bases llenas. I’d think there’d be more noise from the usual Boras suspects like Heyman. The reporter is Puerto Rican like Correa, maybe there is a link somewhere, who knows?

Seager signed for 10/$325. The expectation is that Correa will get more. His people said bidding starts at $330. The expectation is that he'll get $330-$350. So why does an offer that's less than an already established price point impress you?  

 

It's not a, "let's hope he doesn't accept it" offer. It's a, "we know he isn't going to accept it" offer. What do you think, that he's going to sign a below market contract for the honor of playing for a terrible team? While the Yankees and Dodgers are in for his services? 

[Mackus]

If they really offered 10/320 that’s a real offer that can’t be called a “let’s hope he doesn’t accept” offer.

 

It could if there is significant deferred money and Correa ends up signing for $35M straight for 12 or more years.

 

If they make a competitive offer I'll be impressed.  Just because it's for huge raw dollars doesn't mean it's competitive.  Like the Ravens fans who want to sign Lamar but only to a $30M per year deal.  That's not a real offer.

[makoman]

Seager signed for 10/$325. The expectation is that Correa will get more. His people said bidding starts at $330. The expectation is that he'll get $330-$350. So why does an offer that's less than an already established price point impress you?

I said it was a real offer, not necessarily if I was impressed. It also clearly wasn’t made this week. Players say a lot of things about what they want, didn’t Harper claim he was going to get 400M? I don’t see any upside in throwing out 300M offers you don’t want to be accepted. It’s not like it improves their PR since no one believes it anyway. If you disagree that’s certainly fine.

[weird-O]

I said it was a real offer, not necessarily if I was impressed. It also clearly wasn’t made this week. Players say a lot of things about what they want, didn’t Harper claim he was going to get 400M? I don’t see any upside in throwing out 300M offers you don’t want to be accepted. It’s not like it improves their PR since no one believes it anyway. If you disagree that’s certainly fine.

How can it be considered a real offer, if it's below the value the market has already set? That's literally a window dressing offer. 

 

As for players asking price vs. what they can expect to receive, I agree with you. The difference between this situation and the Harper situation, is that he was asking for unprecedented money. Correa is asking for money the market has already said he will get. There is a really big difference between Boras's carnival barking, and what teams are showing they're willing to pay. 

 

As for the question of why make this offer if it's not real? One person mentioned the tie between the story breaking and season tickets going on sale. But there are certainly other PR reasons.