203 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

https://blogs.fangra...ve-not-a-cliff/

This is old, but aging isn't super devastating for catchers. Wouldn't expect a cliff in early 30s.

That said, I can't imagine Rutschman signing a deal that any of us would agree to. I think it would need to be a 10-11 year deal to get him to forego FA.

Love Adleys profile in his early 30s. As much as you can love a players profile in his early 30s. If he drops to being a .700 OPS C which would be a big cliff for him its not the end of the world. What makes him unique is hes a good defensive C and a good offensive player. I also love that his best tool is his eye/on base ability. Its the part of an offensive profile that should go last. As long as he can still C and be adequate defensively I still see him bringing value into is early and maybe even mid 30s. This doesnt even mention any value you that you would could also put into leadership. Thats more debateable and I dont like to get into trying to measure its value but it should be noted hes already a leader

[Mackus]

Love Adleys profile in his early 30s. As much as you can love a players profile in his early 30s. If he drops to being a .700 OPS C which would be a big cliff for him its not the end of the world. What makes him unique is hes a good defensive C and a good offensive player. I also love that his best tool is his eye/on base ability. Its the part of an offensive profile that should go last. As long as he can still C and be adequate defensively I still see him bringing value into is early and maybe even mid 30s. This doesnt even mention any value you that you would could also put into leadership. Thats more debateable and I dont like to get into trying to measure its value but it should be noted hes already a leader

Generally agree. Just think there is no realistic contract to get him for those early 30s. He's not signing an 8-year deal, IMO. We've missed that opportunity, if it ever existed.

[RichardZ]

1) Henderson had 3 years of development before his debut.  If you want to use Gunnar as the developmental relevance, that's SEP25, not SEP24.  If you can't acknowledge the physical and mental challenges between ages like 20 and 22, I'm not sure what to tell you.  I've addressed all of this in other posts.  Given his pedigree, I'm more comfortable with his transition than others without it.
 
2) I've explained my performance over time position several times.  You guys think the difference between a July promotion and a September promotion is somehow the difference in the world.  I don't.  I want him to win RoY and get the PPP.
 
3) Somehow, you KNOW he's going to be immediately great.  You are comparing him to Juan Soto with a .900+ OPS.  Adley was a more advanced college bat and 1-1,and #1 and he's posted an .800 OPS over 2 years.  Henderson, was #1, had 3 years of development and at 22, he posted an .814 OPS.  Bobby Witt Jr was #1/2 has a similar pedigree and spent 2 years in the minors and his first season was a .722 OPS. Colton Cowser was a 1-5 pick, big hit tool, MIL performance and he absolutely sucked when he got here.  Ortiz was a top performer in more PAs at AA/AAA and he struggled in limited opportunity.  Jared Kelenic was top5 prospect, more years and he struggled terribly.
 
....but somehow, 65 games at AAA at age 20 guarantees impact for the Orioles in 2024.  Awesome.
 
4) I don't think Mike Elias is going to consult me on his decision to bring Jackson Holliday up.  Whenever he gets called up, I hope he does great because I want the Orioles to do great.  
 
.....I feel like some people want to use him as some kind of validation of rebuilding.  We won 101 games without him.  There's many, many ways to compete if he was never an Oriole, we'll have to find a way to compete when he leaves or when Chris trades him after 4 years, ....
 
....so , there's consequences to everything you do.  Be smart.  have a plan to win now and win later.  

1. Each player is different in terms of development. That seems obvious but you’re comparing the number of years Henderson spent in the minors without realizing or admitting that Holliday has gotten to AAA faster than Henderson because he had skills right from HS that Henderson didn’t acquire until AA in 2021.

2. No one is saying Holliday will OPS .900 or even .800 next year. You keep repeating that but NOT ONE PERSON has made that claim. What posters are saying, is why discount that possibility entirely. That seems rigid, narrow minded, and reeks of tunnel vision. If Holliday has more walks than strikeouts, has numbers off the charts, AND Elias thinks there are no more challenges in AAA then at that point (whether it’s May/June/July) it’s just asinine to keep him in AAA so he can get you a ROY award in 2025.

3. Having a plan to win now and later is great and exactly what Elias is doing. It’s just not your plan nor should it be.

[mweb08]

One potential issue with the idea of trading Adley with 2 years remaining of service is Elias would actually have to you know, make a big trade.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don’t think still being great behind the dish at age 30 is an outlier. Slight decline, still has him better than his peers. Doubt it’s a cliff like drop off.

Want to be the first team to trade an All-Star while competing for a title? I’ll just never be convinced this is a good idea.

 

Wieters was a 5.7 fWAR player in 2011 at age 25.  
Was an All-Star, and a Gold Glove winner. 

 

Wieters not maintaining that level, doesn't mean Adley won't....  but it's a recent example of just because you were x at 25, doesn't mean you will still be that 30. 

 

You thought I'd have something else to support my opinion. 

What do you have supporting your opinion that Adley is going to be an outlier? 

 

I said earlier the prime years were 27/28... there's some discussion out there that it's closer to 26.

We know what the average career length looks like, and we know that's reduced for catchers. 

 

Adley is his own individual, so maybe that's different for him.

Maybe you limit how much he catches during these coming years, and that helps him in those would be FA years?
But if you are doing that, you are taking him from behind the plate (where has the most value). 

 

Let's say Adley is even better in '24 and '25 than he's been in '22 and '23.  
Let's say that he's a 7 win player these next two years. 

 

I feel I can replace those 7 wins with some combination of the return he would bring, Basallo, and the money you'd be spending on Adley. 

And with the control coming back in trade, and the $ savings, I think I'd be better prepared going forward to continue to keep a window open vs. just having him committed into years that figure to be some level of decline.

You'd rather roll with Adley.

I think that's an understandable pov, and if that's your preference that's your preference. 

I just don't think it's ever about one guy, or think having him or not will tell the story of if they can / will contend or not.

[Mike in STL]

The A’s traded 28 y/o Josh Donaldson after a 5.7 WAR season in 2014. Pre-trade they won 94, 96, and 88 games. Post trade they won 68, 69, and 75.

In return they got Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin and Franklin Barretto.

Lawrie lasted one season. 0.9 WAR.
Graveman offered up 3 serviceable seasons in 4 years. 3.1 WAR in his 4 year tenure.
Nolin pitched 29 innings. Out of baseball for the next 3 years.
Barretto with -0.8 WAR in 81 games scattered across 2017-2019.

This is the reality of a potential return when trading Adley goes badly.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Generally agree. Just think there is no realistic contract to get him for those early 30s. He's not signing an 8-year deal, IMO. We've missed that opportunity, if it ever existed.

Prob have. Running very short on time if not. Id sign him through his 35 yr old season. Which is 10 years.

[dude]

1. Each player is different in terms of development. That seems obvious but you’re comparing the number of years Henderson spent in the minors without realizing or admitting that Holliday has gotten to AAA faster than Henderson because he had skills right from HS that Henderson didn’t acquire until AA in 2021.

 

When responding to the answer to your question, you might not want to undermine your first question.

[BSLChrisStoner]

https://blogs.fangra...ve-not-a-cliff/

This is old, but aging isn't super devastating for catchers. Wouldn't expect a cliff in early 30s.

That said, I can't imagine Rutschman signing a deal that any of us would agree to. I think it would need to be a 10-11 year deal to get him to forego FA.

 

To further argue your point, and against my general take: 

 

The Athletic: 

https://theathletic....ts-free-agency/

 

So, what are the takeaways?

1. A catcher’s prime generally takes him through his age-31 season. For Realmuto, that’s through 2022. A three-year deal for the catcher would thus be ideal — and also exactly what he himself would presumably want to avoid.

2. That said, that isn’t all that different from other positions on the diamond. And catchers have a tendency to at least remain playable defenders deeper into their 30s than players at other premium positions. That should make a team

[RichardZ]

The A’s traded 28 y/o Josh Donaldson after a 5.7 WAR season in 2014. Pre-trade they won 94, 96, and 88 games. Post trade they won 68, 69, and 75.
In return they got Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin and Franklin Barretto.
Lawrie lasted one season. 0.9 WAR.
Graveman offered up 3 serviceable seasons in 4 years. 3.1 WAR in his 4 year tenure.
Nolin pitched 29 innings. Out of baseball for the next 3 years.
Barretto with -0.8 WAR in 81 games scattered across 2017-2019.
This is the reality of a potential return when trading Adley goes badly.

1. Donaldson was not a catcher (except really early in his career)
2. We can name other trades that worked out. The A’s also didn’t have Basallo.

[makoman]

Eddie Murray got traded for nothing. The Erik Bedard trade positively shaped the next ~10 years. I don’t think looking at one bad trade is very meaningful.

[Mike in STL]

Wieters was a 5.7 fWAR player in 2011 at age 25.
Was an All-Star, and a Gold Glove winner.

Wieters not maintaining that level, doesn't mean Adley won't.... but it's a recent example of just because you were x at 25, doesn't mean you will still be that 30.

You thought I'd have something else to support my opinion.
What do you have supporting your opinion that Adley is going to be an outlier?

I said earlier the prime years were 27/28... there's some discussion out there that it's closer to 26.

We know what the average career length looks like, and we know that's reduced for catchers.

Adley is his own individual, so maybe that's different for him.

Maybe you limit how much he catches during these coming years, and that helps him in those would be FA years?
But if you are doing that, you are taking him from behind the plate (where has the most value).

Let's say Adley is even better in '24 and '25 than he's been in '22 and '23.
Let's say that he's a 7 win player these next two years.

I feel I can replace those 7 wins with some combination of the return he would bring, Basallo, and the money you'd be spending on Adley.

And with the control coming back in trade, and the $ savings, I think I'd be better prepared going forward to continue to keep a window open vs. just having him committed into years that figure to be some level of decline.

You'd rather roll with Adley.
I think that's an understandable pov, and if that's your preference that's your preference.
I just don't think it's ever about one guy, or think having him or not will tell the story of if they can / will contend or not.

If Wieters could hit the broad side of a barn he’d still be catching in MLB today. Defense was never an issue.

Sure. Adley could regress. And my opinion could change if he starts to.

I don’t think he is an outlier, that’s my point. You think he’s going to be broken down at 28. That’s a point I think needs some explanation. I think it’s more like 32-33 before you get to outlier status.

If you are going to replace 7 wins, it needs to be immediate if you’re doing it in a window of serious contention. You don’t have time wait 1-3 years for those guys in return to come up to the bigs, develop, and then call it a win in the end.

[RichardZ]

If Wieters could hit the broad side of a barn he’d still be catching in MLB today. Defense was never an issue.
Sure. Adley could regress. And my opinion could change if he starts to.
I don’t think he is an outlier, that’s my point. You think he’s going to be broken down at 28. That’s a point I think needs some explanation. I think it’s more like 32-33 before you get to outlier status.
If you are going to replace 7 wins, it needs to be immediate if you’re doing it in a window of serious contention. You don’t have time wait 1-3 years for those guys in return to come up to the bigs, develop, and then call it a win in the end.

7 wins? Let’s hope so. It could be 5 or less. I do agree he’s not likely to get dealt if the team is contending.

[Mike in STL]

1. Donaldson was not a catcher (except really early in his career)
2. We can name other trades that worked out. The A’s also didn’t have Basallo.

1. Doesn’t matter. I’m talking about a similar age player and contribution (WAR) to wins. If anything, this signals the return for Adley would be worse as Donaldson plays a more sought after position.

2. Please do name some other trades of 26-28 y/o All-Stars off of winning teams, that it worked out for that team. I’ll wait.

[BSLChrisStoner]

If Wieters could hit the broad side of a barn he’d still be catching in MLB today. Defense was never an issue.

Sure. Adley could regress. And my opinion could change if he starts to.

I don’t think he is an outlier, that’s my point. You think he’s going to be broken down at 28. That’s a point I think needs some explanation. I think it’s more like 32-33 before you get to outlier status.

If you are going to replace 7 wins, it needs to be immediate if you’re doing it in a window of serious contention. You don’t have time wait 1-3 years for those guys in return to come up to the bigs, develop, and then call it a win in the end.

Do I? 

I don't know that I think he will fall off. 
He could.
He could be an MVP.
I don't care if they trade him, and he wins an MVP elsewhere. 
I'd rather not invest in him; but that isn't the same as believing he's definitely going to fall off. 
If they do; they can make it work.... helpful if the team salary gets to middle of the pack. 

[Mike in STL]

7 wins? Let’s hope so. It could be 5 or less. I do agree he’s not likely to get dealt if the team is contending.

That’s been my main point. If the team is winning, he isn’t getting dealt with control left. If he does get dealt, it’s because Elias feels they aren’t contending and need to restock.

So some people expecting a decade+ championship window without interruption, IMO, won’t have that if Adley is dealt early. If he’s dealt early the team is bad.

[BaltBird 24]

Wieters looked exactly like the type of athlete who'd age very poorly. No surprise he was basically done by the age of 30.

I think Rutschman is on a different level physically but I'm still very cautious with catchers. I still have very little concern that he'll be a very productive player into his early 30s when Wieters was basically finished.

[RichardZ]

1. Doesn’t matter. I’m talking about a similar age player and contribution (WAR) to wins. If anything, this signals the return for Adley would be worse as Donaldson plays a more sought after position.
2. Please do name some other trades of 26-28 y/o All-Stars off of winning teams, that it worked out for that team. I’ll wait.

Ha. You got me. Haven’t found one yet.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Law:

 

The Orioles refused to participate in the annual Latin American free-agent donnybrook for more than a decade, which continues to hurt their farm system even now that they’ve jumped back in because of the lag between when those players sign (typically at age 16) and when they emerge as prospects. Basallo was one of their first big signings in that market, earning a $1.3 million bonus in 2021. He debuted in full-season ball this year, hitting so well in Low A and then High A that he even got a four-game cup of coffee with Double-A Bowie to finish the season. Basallo turned 19 in August and his bat is already very advanced, with a very short but powerful swing and what appears to be very good pitch recognition. While his offense is ahead of his defense, he does project as a catcher, with a cannon of an arm and the hands and athleticism to handle the position; the risk is that his bat might be so advanced that it’s better to move him to another position so he can get to the majors, à la Bryce Harper, Wil Myers or Paul Konerko. The Orioles also have a pretty good young catcher ahead of Basallo, which might change Basallo's trajectory, although it isn’t relevant for the purposes of this ranking — Basallo projects as a power-hitting catcher with a strong OBP and the ability to control the running game, making him one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball.

[SonicAttack]

"Basallo projects as a power-hitting catcher with a strong OBP and the ability to control the running game, making him one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball."

 

Sweetness!