199 replies to this topic

[Mike in STL]

So what exactly is your argument? That MLB isn't Madden Football where you trade the best players with your buddies? 

 

I guess you're a young buck, but Doyle Alexander was traded 1987 mid-season from Atlanta to Detroit and proceeded to go 9-0 in 11 starts to finish out the season, helping the Tigers to outlast the Blue Jays to win the AL East. The Braves clearly got better (longterm) as did the Tigers (short term). Hell, Alexander had been a good SP for the Blue Jays in the mid 80s, who flipped him to Atlanta for a young Duane Ward who would be one of the shutdown arms in the Jays' pen when they won back-to-back WS titles in the early 90s. 

I've made very clear what my argument is. If the Orioles are winning, they won't be trading Adley with 2 years control left. Good teams don't do that. If they trade Adley with 2 years control left, It's because they are losing. For those believing we're at the beginning of a decade of dominance, trading Adley that early can't be an option. 

 

Cited the A's trade of Donaldson as probably the lone modern example, someone else cited Soto, as guys who were in that exact position. First contract, superstars, mid-20s, had been on winning teams, were traded, their teams were horrendous immediately after. Was Donaldson traded in a fire sale? I don't know. They also traded Cespedes, but acquired Jon Lester (buyers move) and kept their core pitching staff together. Before the recent sale of the team, the O's we're heading down the A's path of baseball model. Scary to say the least. The A's are a franchise you definitely don't want to model yourself after, yet here some are calling for it.

 

Soto, part of a slower rebuild than the O's as the Nats didn't hold onto anyone of note. Harper walked. Scherzer out. Strasburg completely broken from head to toe. Corbin has been hot garbage. Soto turned down 15/$440M from the Nats, so it was time for the Nats to ship Soto out and start over. If Adley turns down an extension, which the Orioles should seek sooner rather than later, sure, shop him. But just to say trade him with control left so you get a better package of prospects, and we'll keep winning 90+ games in the process, I don't see that happening. 

 

BTW, Doyle Alexdander retired when I was 4. He made his only All-Star team when I was 3. His ERA+ was below average 12 of his 19 years in the league. Sorry for not recalling such an incredible superstar in baseball history. 

[makoman]

Back to Basallo, he got a spring training invite. Not bad at 19. I know they need a lot of catchers, but still should be good experience.

 

Full list:

https://www.mlb.com/...roster-invitees

[mdrunning]

It's not so much my story as it is how things went down surrounding Josh Donaldson. 

 

 

As for teams trading superstar players with years of control remaining and it working out? 

 

Roberto Alomar & Joe Carter were flipped for Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez.

 

Also, Gary Sheffield was flipped out of SD for Trevor Hoffman out of Miami. Hoffman built a HoF career as the closer for the Pads, and Sheff won a WS with the Marlins. 

 

JD Drew was traded for a young Adam Wainwright, too. 

 

Doyle Alexander was traded for a scuffling AA pitcher named John Smoltz. Doyle was lights out for the Tigers as they reached the ALCS, and yeah Smoltz turned out OK in Atlanta. 

If I remember, Sheffield was part of the Padres' salary purge in 1993 and he was also a pending free agent. San Diego got rid of just about everyone of value that year save for Tony Gwynn.

[mdrunning]

BTW, Doyle Alexdander retired when I was 4. He made his only All-Star team when I was 3. His ERA+ was below average 12 of his 19 years in the league. Sorry for not recalling such an incredible superstar in baseball history. 

Alexander is probably best known here for being part of that huge trade with the Yankees in 1976 that brought back Rick Dempsey, Scott McGregor and Tippy Martinez.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I've made very clear what my argument is. If the Orioles are winning, they won't be trading Adley with 2 years control left. Good teams don't do that. If they trade Adley with 2 years control left, It's because they are losing. For those believing we're at the beginning of a decade of dominance, trading Adley that early can't be an option. 

 

If you want to say it hasn't happened, whatever, okay.
The idea that if you traded him with 2 years left, and couldn't continue to contend, or frankly maybe be better off... I'll never agree with.

[Mike in STL]

If you want to say it hasn't happened, whatever, okay.
The idea that if you traded him with 2 years left, and couldn't continue to contend, or frankly maybe be better off... I'll never agree with.

Agree to disagree. I know. 

 

Curious where it ends. I mean, you get a better package the earlier you trade someone. Who else are you trading in the next 2-4 years that will be under 28 y/o? 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Agree to disagree. I know. 

 

Curious where it ends. I mean, you get a better package the earlier you trade someone. Who else are you trading in the next 2-4 years that will be under 28 y/o? 

 

Who else do you want to discuss? I've told you who'd I'd attempt to extend. 
I could have been fine with Adley being extended - even before the Ownership change, and payroll going up.
With payroll going up, I'm more open to him being extended. Still wouldn't be my priority.
Without the Ownership change, I definitely would have preferred to trade him. 

[RichardZ]

Alexander is probably best known here for being part of that huge trade with the Yankees in 1976 that brought back Rick Dempsey, Scott McGregor and Tippy Martinez.

Doyle Alexander should be best known for being part of a trade package for the Oriole’s Frank Robinson.

[Mike in STL]

Who else do you want to discuss? I've told you who'd I'd attempt to extend. 
I could have been fine with Adley being extended - even before the Ownership change, and payroll going up.
With payroll going up, I'm more open to him being extended. Still wouldn't be my priority.
Without the Ownership change, I definitely would have preferred to trade him. 

No one. Extend Burnes, Adley, Holliday, Gunnar, Bradish, Rodriguez. Sooner rather than later please. You want to win for a decade, this is how you start. Then you win the drafts even when picking in the 20's and spend on IFAs to keep the farm full. 

[mdrunning]

No one. Extend Burnes, Adley, Holliday, Gunnar, Bradish, Rodriguez. Sooner rather than later please. You want to win for a decade, this is how you start. Then you win the drafts even when picking in the 20's and spend on IFAs to keep the farm full. 

If he has a good year in 2024, Burnes is probably looking at a Gerrit Cole type of contract. Even for the best-heeled teams, it would be almost impossible to extend that many players and maintain any type of payroll flexibility.

[Mike in STL]

If he has a good year in 2024, Burnes is probably looking at a Gerrit Cole type of contract. Even for the best-heeled teams, it would be almost impossible to extend that many players and maintain any type of payroll flexibility.

All the more reason to do it today. 

Burnes $36M AAV if given the Cole type deal.

Gunnar, call it $27M per to slightly beat the Witt deal.

Holliday, call it $11M per to beat Churio's deal.

Rutsch, hard to tell, Realmuto at $23M per, Perez at $20M per, but those guys are older. I feel like 7/$130M was what might have been tossed around here before, that is $18.5M. for the sake of this exercise, say its $20M per.

Bradish and G-Rod both the Berrios number, $18.7M per, call it $19M.

 

If you did all 6 today, rough estimate AAV, 36+27+11+20+19+19 = $132M added to payroll.

 

But these things are backloaded so still give Burnes his $36M. Gunnar and Jackson start at $3M. $12M for Rutsch, $10M each for Bradish/G-Rod. 36+3+3+12+10+10 = $74M 

 

Current Payroll is $101.6M Subtract the guys current earnings. $15.6M for Burnes. Is it $770K for the other 4, and not counting Holiday yet? Thats $82.9M Add in the new $74M you're at $156.9M. That is literally league average, 13th place just above the Padres at $156.8M.

 

I feel like even without the sale of the team, $156.8M is a number the Angelos' should reach. Payroll was $161M in 2017. New ownership, it's a number I think they can reach and also sign a FA or two. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I've made very clear what my argument is. If the Orioles are winning, they won't be trading Adley with 2 years control left. Good teams don't do that. If they trade Adley with 2 years control left, It's because they are losing. For those believing we're at the beginning of a decade of dominance, trading Adley that early can't be an option. 

 

Cited the A's trade of Donaldson as probably the lone modern example, someone else cited Soto, as guys who were in that exact position. First contract, superstars, mid-20s, had been on winning teams, were traded, their teams were horrendous immediately after. Was Donaldson traded in a fire sale? I don't know. They also traded Cespedes, but acquired Jon Lester (buyers move) and kept their core pitching staff together. Before the recent sale of the team, the O's we're heading down the A's path of baseball model. Scary to say the least. The A's are a franchise you definitely don't want to model yourself after, yet here some are calling for it.

 

Soto, part of a slower rebuild than the O's as the Nats didn't hold onto anyone of note. Harper walked. Scherzer out. Strasburg completely broken from head to toe. Corbin has been hot garbage. Soto turned down 15/$440M from the Nats, so it was time for the Nats to ship Soto out and start over. If Adley turns down an extension, which the Orioles should seek sooner rather than later, sure, shop him. But just to say trade him with control left so you get a better package of prospects, and we'll keep winning 90+ games in the process, I don't see that happening. 

 

BTW, Doyle Alexdander retired when I was 4. He made his only All-Star team when I was 3. His ERA+ was below average 12 of his 19 years in the league. Sorry for not recalling such an incredible superstar in baseball history. 

The problem I have with that simplistic statement is 3 fold.

1. You are assuming that they are winning in a large part because of Adley's performance. That may not be the case.

2. You are assuming that Bassalo isn't a straight replacement or even better than Adley.

3. You are assuming that the O's all of a sudden stop winning because they trade Adley. You have to look at the roster makeup at that time AND the return you get in a trade to decide the best course of action. 

 

Frankly, not trading Adley just because the team is winning is very poor management. Now you may well look at all the factors and decide its the correct play to keep him. But to make a blanket statement several years in advance is just wrong IMO.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

No one. Extend Burnes, Adley, Holliday, Gunnar, Bradish, Rodriguez. Sooner rather than later please. You want to win for a decade, this is how you start. Then you win the drafts even when picking in the 20's and spend on IFAs to keep the farm full. 

I don't think that's possible, even under new ownership and higher expected payroll. This was the point in starting this thread in the first place. What do you think reasonable extensions for these guys would be and how much would that add up to? Like to see your thoughts on numbers. My simplistic view is that its much too big a number. Even if the average was $20M/year that would be $120M/year tied up in 6 players.

[Mike in STL]

The problem I have with that simplistic statement is 3 fold.
1. You are assuming that they are winning in a large part because of Adley's performance. That may not be the case.
2. You are assuming that Bassalo isn't a straight replacement or even better than Adley.
3. You are assuming that the O's all of a sudden stop winning because they trade Adley. You have to look at the roster makeup at that time AND the return you get in a trade to decide the best course of action.

Frankly, not trading Adley just because the team is winning is very poor management. Now you may well look at all the factors and decide its the correct play to keep him. But to make a blanket statement several years in advance is just wrong IMO.

No, I’m not assuming those things. Why didn’t the Astros trade Kyle Tucker yet? Imagine the haul they could get. Are the Blue Jays shopping Vlad Jr around? It’s hard to come up with many other examples in the ballpark of Adleys age and service because teams have already extended many of those types of guys. Which is what the Orioles should do. Teams just don’t trade these guys, unless you’re shedding payroll, which would be sad for this team. Or losing and feel the need to reload.

I’m not assuming anything about Bassallo. And have even said they can both be on the team.

They wouldn’t stop winning if they trade Adley, I hope. They would be already losing if they trade Adley.


Feel like I’m starting to sound like a broken record when I’ve been pretty clear…again.

[Mike in STL]

I don't think that's possible, even under new ownership and higher expected payroll. This was the point in starting this thread in the first place. What do you think reasonable extensions for these guys would be and how much would that add up to? Like to see your thoughts on numbers. My simplistic view is that its much too big a number. Even if the average was $20M/year that would be $120M/year tied up in 6 players.

Literally the last post before yours. I estimated they could go up to about $159M total extending all 6 today. (If someone smarter than me, Bob, Mack, wants to suggest those numbers are way way way off, be my guest). That would go up each year with nature of backloaded deals, but so does revenue and broadcast money, etc…

If new ownership can’t go to 13th in MLB in payroll, it’s again, a sad state of affairs. Even Pete took the O’s up to $161M in 2017.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Literally the last post before yours. I estimated they could go up to about $159M total extending all 6 today. (If someone smarter than me, Bob, Mack, wants to suggest those numbers are way way way off, be my guest). That would go up each year with nature of backloaded deals, but so does revenue and broadcast money, etc…

If new ownership can’t go to 13th in MLB in payroll, it’s again, a sad state of affairs. Even Pete took the O’s up to $161M in 2017.

Not sure how I missed that but thanks.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

No, I’m not assuming those things. Why didn’t the Astros trade Kyle Tucker yet? Imagine the haul they could get. Are the Blue Jays shopping Vlad Jr around? It’s hard to come up with many other examples in the ballpark of Adleys age and service because teams have already extended many of those types of guys. Which is what the Orioles should do. Teams just don’t trade these guys, unless you’re shedding payroll, which would be sad for this team. Or losing and feel the need to reload.

I’m not assuming anything about Bassallo. And have even said they can both be on the team.

They wouldn’t stop winning if they trade Adley, I hope. They would be already losing if they trade Adley.


Feel like I’m starting to sound like a broken record when I’ve been pretty clear…again.

Are you talking losing in the mind of fans?

Or are you saying they are actually losing on the field, which is what I think you are saying? 

If its the former I can see that. If its the later we'll just disagree.

[Mike in STL]

Are you talking losing in the mind of fans?

Or are you saying they are actually losing on the field, which is what I think you are saying? 

If its the former I can see that. If its the later we'll just disagree.

I'm talking their record is bad enough to be sellers at the deadline,  or they come off a season where September games didn't matter. In those situations, maybe they trade Adley early. 

 

FTR I don't think the Orioles will find themselves in those situations in the next 4ish years. I'm optimistic about these young guys, and the recent ownership transition has me floating on cloud nine. 

[dude]

The idea that if you traded him with 2 years left, and couldn't continue to contend, or frankly maybe be better off... I'll never agree with.

 

So I'll generally agree with this as it relates to any player.  Note that should also apply when people have a hard-on for 'rebuilding', but let's stay off that for a minute.

 

However we got here, Adley is here.  You should be able to win before him and eventually after him, but you can certainly win with him (he is actually unique).

 

You said this many times and in the recent Warehouse episode, that you would trade Adley with 2 years left.....but I want you to tell me who you would trade him for now (this year). Don't just tell me you don't have to make that decision yet.  Pretend he has 2 years remaining and tell me the deal (team/players) that would make any sense at all.  You can't hide behind things will be [whatever] in the future.  The players could certainly be different, maybe the needs are different, but that's going to change every year.  There's nothing special about now versus later, just figure out what the "trade Adley with 2 years left package" looks like today.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

So I'll generally agree with this as it relates to any player.  Note that should also apply when people have a hard-on for 'rebuilding', but let's stay off that for a minute.

 

However we got here, Adley is here.  You should be able to win before him and eventually after him, but you can certainly win with him (he is actually unique).

 

You said this many times and in the recent Warehouse episode, that you would trade Adley with 2 years left.....but I want you to tell me who you would trade him for now (this year). Don't just tell me you don't have to make that decision yet.  Pretend he has 2 years remaining and tell me the deal (team/players) that would make any sense at all.  You can't hide behind things will be [whatever] in the future.  The players could certainly be different, maybe the needs are different, but that's going to change every year.  There's nothing special about now versus later, just figure out what the "trade Adley with 2 years left package" looks like today.

Yes but its still apples and oranges. You have more data down the line. For Adley and others that could impact such a decision such as Basallo. Not to mention that whom might be available in a trade will change a ton too.

 

Nobody, Chris included, is saying they'd just trade him away for a bag of balls just like nobody said to make trades this offseason just to make trades. But to flat out say that no way you'd trade Adley is just poor management. The situation at that time should dictate what you do. Saying definitively x,y, or z today is just premature conjecture.