88 replies to this topic

[jamesdean]

You're starting to get into chaos theory territory. Injuries are random events that don't have a linear pattern, no matter how much anyone wants to try and prove the opposite. Especially non-contact injuries.

I'm more interested in the cause of the injuries, not the type. 

[Biggsy]

I'm more interested in the cause of the injuries, not the type.

It appears Edwards and Peters planted their foot and had their ligament snap. I had it happen to me about 15 years ago. I've also sneezed really hard and herniated a disc that messed me up for about a month. Injuries happen for no reason other than wear and tear, or just plain bad luck some times.

[Greg Pappas]

11-6. 2nd in the AFC North behind the Browns.

• Marcus Peters is out for the season and Jimmie Smith is not yet 100%
• J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are out for the season and the new RB's need time to get acclimated.
• The WR Corps is not healthy to start the season and has not had a lot of time syncing with Lamar.
• Ronnie Stanley may not be 100%.
• Ben Cleveland has not looked like a starting caliber LG thus far, so the LG spot is iffy.
• The defensive line is aging, and the young guys need to step up their development.

[Mackus]

You're starting to get into chaos theory territory. Injuries are random events that don't have a linear pattern, no matter how much anyone wants to try and prove the opposite. Especially non-contact injuries.

 

I'm just trying to see if there is any measured data to argue against Slidemaster's comments that there will "likely be several more" season ending injuries and that "most teams lose at least a few players for the year" through the season.  I think that's an overstatement.  Especially as it relates to the top half of the roster as opposed to guys at the back end, which wasn't what he specifically said but I think is implied because it's not really a big deal if you lose the 40th best player.  For example the Justus Hill injury doesn't really hurt much since he's not a main guy on the roster.  I'd argue it doesn't even hurt much even after considering the Dobbins and Edwards injuries.  People wouldn't be any less concerned about the running game if we still had Hill available..

[PrimeTime]

I was definitely in gloom and doom mode the other day but I've had an opportunity to calm down. I said 13-4 on The Bank the other night and I'm going to stick with it.

We've got secondary depth to absorb the loss of Peters. It sucks for sure but we can deal.

On offense, we've still got #8 and he's the straw that stirs the drink. For everyone worried about the running game, remember this....when we went to Lamar in 2018, we used Kenneth Dixon and Gus (who was a relatively unknown, undrafted rookie at the time) and they combined for almost 1000 yds and over 5 yards a carry. Of course the situation isn't ideal but Latavius Murray and Ty'son Williams will be a solid duo.

[CantonJester]

Way too volatile. Could be 8-9, could be 12-5. Is there a team with a bigger variance, considering the Ravens running game is turned inside out?

[jamesdean]

I was definitely in gloom and doom mode the other day but I've had an opportunity to calm down. I said 13-4 on The Bank the other night and I'm going to stick with it.

We've got secondary depth to absorb the loss of Peters. It sucks for sure but we can deal.

On offense, we've still got #8 and he's the straw that stirs the drink. For everyone worried about the running game, remember this....when we went to Lamar in 2018, we used Kenneth Dixon and Gus (who was a relatively unknown, undrafted rookie at the time) and they combined for almost 1000 yds and over 5 yards a carry. Of course the situation isn't ideal but Latavius Murray and Ty'son Williams will be a solid duo.

I'm trying desperately to think the same way and a part of me at least feels as you do.  But man, these injuries need to stop and pronto. It's quickly getting to the "overkill" level.  

[hallas]

I'm going with 11-6. I think the RB situation is overblown because we have a good OLine, while the secondary situation is more problematic than most people are letting on. But we had adversity last year (Earl Thomas going nuts 3 weeks before the season, the worst COVID situation in the NFL) and we managed okay. If/when our receivers get healthy that will help a lot too with our offense.

[cprenegade]

Originally I was thinking 12-5.  I'm dialing that back to 10-7, possibly 11-6.  I don't buy the line that the losses at RB aren't going to hurt and anyone can run behind the Raven's line in this system.  The guys they brought in were not on any team and there is a reason for that.  

 

I have to be shown that the O-line is going to be very good.  I have not seen Bozeman at C, I have not seen Zeitler at all.  I have seen Villenueva last year and he was pretty bad at opening holes for James Conner, and pretty bad at protecting Roethlisberger.  I think he is past his prime.  I said earlier that I thought the O-line would be better than last year's playoff group, but not as good as what it was at the beginning of last year with Brown on one side and Stanley on the other.  I stick by that until proven otherwise.  

 

I just don't think you lose talent like that, simply replace it with anyone, and get the same production.  If so why even offer Edwards a new contract this off season?  Save the money and replace him cheap if anyone can do it.  The loss of Dobbins was painful, but the drop off to Edwards was not huge.  Edwards is not as explosive, but he is more than capable of carrying the load.  I think of him as a Nick Chubb type.  The loss of Edwards on top of Dobbins is crippling.  The drop off to the group they brought in is as wide as the Grand Canyon.  If I am a DC, I'm keying even more on Lamar Jackson to limit his big plays.  They were always going to key on Jackson, but you had to also watch Dobbins/Edwards or they would make you pay.  Now I'm keying exclusively on Jackson and betting that if my guys handle their regular assignments they will be able to limit anyone else out of the Ravens back field.  

 

Not everyone will be able to do that.  Even with the losses, the Ravens are still more talented than most teams in the league and most will not be able to keep up.  But I do think the injuries have cost them elite status.  I have to downgrade them from the top tier of the AFC with KC, Buffalo, and Cleveland, to the second tier.  Still very much a playoff team, but I believe the better teams with better coaching will be able to game plan for the Ravens offense and stop it much easier than they could a few weeks ago.

 

And the loss of Peters shouldn't be discounted either.  I believe the defense will still be very good, but with Peters on one side and Humphrey on the other, the secondary might have been the best in the league.  With Peters out, good QBs will exploit that side.  As I said before, not every team and every QB will be able to do that, but the better ones will.  And all those reasons are why I have taken the win total down from 12 to 10.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Well Vegas still has our O/U at 11. Saw 10.5 at one place but you had to give some juice to take the over. So Slide and all those that think we are an 8 or less win team you got a few games to play with and still can make money. Seems like a nice bet if youre that confident.

[jamesdean]

Originally I was thinking 12-5.  I'm dialing that back to 10-7, possibly 11-6.  I don't buy the line that the losses at RB aren't going to hurt and anyone can run behind the Raven's line in this system.  The guys they brought in were not on any team and there is a reason for that.  

 

I have to be shown that the O-line is going to be very good.  I have not seen Bozeman at C, I have not seen Zeitler at all.  I have seen Villenueva last year and he was pretty bad at opening holes for James Conner, and pretty bad at protecting Roethlisberger.  I think he is past his prime.  I said earlier that I thought the O-line would be better than last year's playoff group, but not as good as what it was at the beginning of last year with Brown on one side and Stanley on the other.  I stick by that until proven otherwise.  

 

I just don't think you lose talent like that, simply replace it with anyone, and get the same production.  If so why even offer Edwards a new contract this off season?  Save the money and replace him cheap if anyone can do it.  The loss of Dobbins was painful, but the drop off to Edwards was not huge.  Edwards is not as explosive, but he is more than capable of carrying the load.  I think of him as a Nick Chubb type.  The loss of Edwards on top of Dobbins is crippling.  The drop off to the group they brought in is as wide as the Grand Canyon.  If I am a DC, I'm keying even more on Lamar Jackson to limit his big plays.  They were always going to key on Jackson, but you had to also watch Dobbins/Edwards or they would make you pay.  Now I'm keying exclusively on Jackson and betting that if my guys handle their regular assignments they will be able to limit anyone else out of the Ravens back field.  

 

Not everyone will be able to do that.  Even with the losses, the Ravens are still more talented than most teams in the league and most will not be able to keep up.  But I do think the injuries have cost them elite status.  I have to downgrade them from the top tier of the AFC with KC, Buffalo, and Cleveland, to the second tier.  Still very much a playoff team, but I believe the better teams with better coaching will be able to game plan for the Ravens offense and stop it much easier than they could a few weeks ago.

 

And the loss of Peters shouldn't be discounted either.  I believe the defense will still be very good, but with Peters on one side and Humphrey on the other, the secondary might have been the best in the league.  With Peters out, good QBs will exploit that side.  As I said before, not every team and every QB will be able to do that, but the better ones will.  And all those reasons are why I have taken the win total down from 12 to 10.  

I pretty much agree with everything you said but I'm hoping that collectively, what's left of the running attack will still find a way to move the chains and pile up enough yardage to compliment Jackson nicely.  Maybe Williams will turn out to be a solid contributor, surprising some people around the league.  And maybe Murray still has enough juice in his legs to somewhat duplicate what Gus would do.  I doubt Bell is going to amount to much as a runner but may serve a purpose as a receiver out of the backfield.  One thing is for sure- if this is going to be a Top 5 defense, they will be desperately needed this year.  Can't see the Ravens averaging 30 points in 2021. There were just too many major injuries to overcome. 

[Bmore Irish]

I'll go with 11-6.

 

That's accounting for current injuries, plus assuming Jimmy Smith/Tavon Young will miss time at some point, causing CB depth to get perilously thin. I'm also baking into that record at least one loss they otherwise could've/should've won, but everything went wrong and it wasn't their day.

 

If everyone stays mostly healthy and the ball bounces their way more often than not, it's easy to imagine that win total going up a couple games.

 

First win comes tonight!

[JordanKough]

I'm sticking with 14-3! But thinking about upping it to 15-2 . 

[PrimeTime]

I think the super majority of us expected a 1-1 record when we woke up this morning. I also think the way that we got to 1-1 is more beneficial in the long run than the way we expected to get to 1-1. Especially seeing the Raiders go into Pittsburgh and knock off the Steelers, you don't feel nearly as bad about losing in Vegas. Coupling that with getting a win over the Chiefs in the manner that they did (coming from behind, buckling down defensively, Lamar putting them on his back) is a bigger net positive, in my opinion, than beating Vegas and losing to the Chiefs yet again.

[JStruds]

I think the super majority of us expected a 1-1 record when we woke up this morning. I also think the way that we got to 1-1 is more beneficial in the long run than the way we expected to get to 1-1. Especially seeing the Raiders go into Pittsburgh and knock off the Steelers, you don't feel nearly as bad about losing in Vegas. Coupling that with getting a win over the Chiefs in the manner that they did (coming from behind, buckling down defensively, Lamar putting them on his back) is a bigger net positive, in my opinion, than beating Vegas and losing to the Chiefs yet again.

That's a good point, and, IIRC, the first time Harbs asked Lamar "do you want to go for it?" against Seattle in 2019 launched the Ravens on quite a run. Could it be another catylst?

[Ravens2006]

That's a good point, and, IIRC, the first time Harbs asked Lamar "do you want to go for it?" against Seattle in 2019 launched the Ravens on quite a run. Could it be another catylst?

 

Someone on a morning show today, maybe Ryan Clark, but not sure... talked about the whole Harbaugh asking Lamar "Do you want to go for it?" question was more about giving Lamar some sense of "ownership" of the decision.  Which makes sense, even though I'm ashamed to say it didn't pop in to my head right away.

 

You know exactly what he's going to say in that situation.  John knows what his answer is before he asks that question.  He's already made the decision there to go for it.  Doing it the way he did is basically giving Lamar another leadership moment of sorts.  Another potential notch on his resume.  He KNOWS Lamar isn't going to say "Uhhh, I dunno, that's a long yard Coach, let's just punt it away to Patrick and company".

 

The Seattle version, John had decided to kick and even sent out the kicking unit if I recall correctly.  It was Lamar's actions when he came to the sideline that made Harbaugh take pause and re-open the playbook.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah John actually said that in his presser last night. Knew they were going to go for it and knew Lamar would say yes. That said I dont think its being fake either. If for whatever reason Lamar had said no or been hesitant I think he punts. You know the great thing about that was how quickly the call came in they got to the line and snapped the ball.

[jamesdean]

Yeah John actually said that in his presser last night. Knew they were going to go for it and knew Lamar would say yes. That said I dont think its being fake either. If for whatever reason Lamar had said no or been hesitant I think he punts. You know the great thing about that was how quickly the call came in they got to the line and snapped the ball.

Harbaugh would never admit it to the public but I have no doubt he felt that going for the first down was probably imperative because if they punt the ball away and give it back to Mahomes, it would have been just a matter of a few plays before they got in FG range.  He was torching the secondary all night and both Harbaugh and Jackson knew that.  So, him asking Lamar probably was just a way to showcase what he was going to do anyway. 

[makoman]

Harbaugh would never admit it to the public but I have no doubt he felt that going for the first down was probably imperative because if they punt the ball away and give it back to Mahomes, it would have been just a matter of a few plays before they got in FG range.  He was torching the secondary all night and both Harbaugh and Jackson knew that.  So, him asking Lamar probably was just a way to showcase what he was going to do anyway. 

The Ravens are one of the most analytically driven teams out there, and analytics overwhelmingly favored going for it. Maybe knowing the opponent made it even more clear, but I'm sure they would have regardless of the opposing QB. 

 

I agree with what was said above, that "asking" Lamar was merely a formality, as Lamar was obviously going to say yes and it let him share ownership of the situation even though Harbaugh already knew he was going for it.

[bmore_ken]

The Ravens are one of the most analytically driven teams out there, and analytics overwhelmingly favored going for it. Maybe knowing the opponent made it even more clear, but I'm sure they would have regardless of the opposing QB. 

 

I agree with what was said above, that "asking" Lamar was merely a formality, as Lamar was obviously going to say yes and it let him share ownership of the situation even though Harbaugh already knew he was going for it.

 I think it's funny when people write Harbaugh asked Lamar. Is Lamar ever going to say no in that situation?