113 replies to this topic

[dude]

3. You don't believe they would have taken Leiter if he dropped?

 

To answer your question, No.  We had this discussion a while back when Rocker was largely considered the best selection in the draft.  I think Elias is glad Lieter went before he got to the Orioles because he doesn't have to explain passing. Rocker, Lawler and to some degree Watson were all consideration to significant consideration for 1-1.  If Davis had dropped, I'd guess they would have taken him. If the Orioles had 1-1, they could have gone Davis just like the Pirates did....but if you said they can draft 2nd or 5th and Davis is gone....I'd guess he'd rather draft 5th and let 3 higher ranked kids he didn't want come off the board.

[RichardZ]

It's only fairly alarming if his picks turn out poorly and guys he passed on do better. So far, I don't see any really bad picks from his first two drafts in the higher rounds. Cadyn Grenier from the previous hierarchy, was alarming right away. Still too early to tell how players like Henderson, Ortiz, Stowers, Haskins turn out.

[Mackus]

Interesting breakdown of draft picks from a few years ago. Deeper in the article they break down player sourcing (HS/college/JuCo) for 1st & supp, 2nd & 3rd, 4th-10th, and 11th-40th.

Overall, it's a higher percentage of college draftees than I realize. Early on, it's about 50/50 which is what I thought was the case throughout the draft. But it's not, or at least wasn't in this particular year.

https://www.baseball...t-demographics/

[Mackus]

It's only fairly alarming if his picks turn out poorly and guys he passed on do better. So far, I don't see any really bad picks from his first two drafts in the higher rounds. Cadyn Grenier from the previous hierarchy, was alarming right away. Still too early to tell how players like Henderson, Ortiz, Stowers, Haskins turn out.

Alarming in the sense that it might show a preference for a certain type of player. What the players end up doing is immaterial to trying to reverse engineer what Eliases preferences or modeling might be.

[RichardZ]

To answer your question, No. We had this discussion a while back when Rocker was largely considered the best selection in the draft. I think Elias is glad Lieter went before he got to the Orioles because he doesn't have to explain passing. Rocker, Lawler and to some degree Watson were all consideration to significant consideration for 1-1. If Davis had dropped, I'd guess they would have taken him. If the Orioles had 1-1, they could have gone Davis just like the Pirates did....but if you said they can draft 2nd or 5th and Davis is gone....I'd guess he'd rather draft 5th and let 3 higher ranked kids he didn't want come off the board.

Higher ranked doesn't mean better. I think you put a lot of faith in the consensus and not as much in Elias and his team. That's fair. I guess we'll find out how good or flawed their system of drafting is.

[RichardZ]

Alarming in the sense that it might show a preference for a certain type of player. What the players end up doing is immaterial to trying to reverse engineer what Eliases preferences or modeling might be.

So, if the results are great, it doesn't matter?

[Mackus]

So, if the results are great, it doesn't matter?

Correct. The results have nothing to do with trying to determine if Elias prefers college players to HS players. Or hitters to pitchers.


The results have everything to do with validating Elias' preferences, if he does have any.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

These theories are wrong but its going to take time to prove them wrong. Word was Baltimore prefered Leiter and Davis but we drafted 5th and not 2nd so no way of knowing for sure. Witt Jr was the consensus #2 guy in '19 but we had #1 and not #2 and took Adley. If all things being relatively equal Elias prefers a college bat to a HS bat or a pitcher I can get on board with that. Less risk. Hasnt been an opportunity to prove otherwise. If Rocker was so damn good and in that next tier he wouldn't have made it to 10.

[makoman]

Interesting breakdown of draft picks from a few years ago. Deeper in the article they break down player sourcing (HS/college/JuCo) for 1st & supp, 2nd & 3rd, 4th-10th, and 11th-40th.

Overall, it's a higher percentage of college draftees than I realize. Early on, it's about 50/50 which is what I thought was the case throughout the draft. But it's not, or at least wasn't in this particular year.

https://www.baseball...t-demographics/

 

I did this really quickly using the draft tracker so I could be way off. But this year, out of 612 draftees, I got

448 College (73.2%)

115 HS (18.8%)

48 Juco (7.8%)

1 no school

[dude]

These theories are wrong but its going to take time to prove them wrong. 

 

So why do you care? You are one that keeps trying to suggest it's not what they're doing, but they keep doing it and the reason they are doing it is obvious.  They want specific data (volume, competition) to inform their decisions and you can look at their history and understand where they've been successful and where they haven't.

 

Of course they're going to try and provide messaging to the contrary of their approach, if they don't, they'd lose leverage in negotiations.  They have to pretend 'everything is an option' but they continue to do basically one thing.

 

...again, why do you care that's what they are doing, it is....you keep trying to convince others it's not. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

So why do you care? You are one that keeps trying to suggest it's not what they're doing, but they keep doing it and the reason they are doing it is obvious. They want specific data (volume, competition) to inform their decisions and you can look at their history and understand where they've been successful and where they haven't.

Of course they're going to try and provide messaging to the contrary of their approach, if they don't, they'd lose leverage in negotiations. They have to pretend 'everything is an option' but they continue to do basically one thing.

...again, why do you care that's what they are doing, it is....you keep trying to convince others it's not.

The word was they wanted Leiter if available . From people who hear things. Youre just a dude with a theory.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

You wont convince me they wouldn't have taken Witt at 2 in '19 or Leiter at #2 this year. Thats not to say that they don't have a preference but to label them as having hard and fast rules is foolish

[makoman]

The word was they wanted Leiter if available . From people who hear things. Youre just a dude with a theory.

I’m sure I read that too. I’m certain that they prefer college bats. I’m not certain that no college pitcher could ever be at the top of their board. They haven’t had like a Strasburg or David Price on the board when they’ve picked.

[BobPhelan]

Tie goes to the college bat but they are certainly willing to do something different in the right circumstance. They were apparently pretty close between picking Cowser and Watson and we heard that they absolutely loved Jackson Jobe.

[dude]

You wont convince me they wouldn't have taken Witt at 2 in '19 or Leiter at #2 this year. Thats not to say that they don't have a preference but to label them as having hard and fast rules is foolish

 

...so this is your answer to my question, right?  You think having a rule like they keep using is foolish.   You are an advocate of Elias and don't want to label his approach as foolish.  Therefore, what he's doing can't be what he's doing.

 

You said over and over you thought they were taking Watson, right?  ...but Watson was there and they didn't take him so we're going to ignore that.

 

Again, I don't care....I'd rather draft 30th.

[dude]

I have an idea, let's make this easy.

 

4 quad pool (college bat, college pitcher, HS bat, HS pitcher) for 2022 draft. I get college bat. 

 

The other 3 entrants can decide what the pool amount is, I'm in. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

I have an idea, let's make this easy.

4 quad pool (college bat, college pitcher, HS bat, HS pitcher) for 2022 draft. I get college bat.

The other 3 entrants can decide what the pool amount is, I'm in.

I'd agree you would win more often than not...but if Leiter had been there at 5, you would've lost this year.

[dude]

I'd agree you would win more often than not...but if Leiter had been there at 5, you would've lost this year.

 

...and we know that because someone floated a position, which wasn't going to present itself, as evidence.

 

I would expect them to be playing chess, not checkers.

[BSLChrisStoner]

...and we know that because someone floated a position, which wasn't going to present itself, as evidence.

I would expect them to be playing chess, not checkers.

Nah, haven't been told anything here.
Just my opinion.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Tie goes to the college bat but they are certainly willing to do something different in the right circumstance. They were apparently pretty close between picking Cowser and Watson and we heard that they absolutely loved Jackson Jobe.

Can you say where you heard they loved Jobe?