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Creed Willems


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#21 BSLNickStevens

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 01:16 PM

The sophomore eligible guys are probably going to be slot of a little over.   The HS kid's slot was 188K.   I have no idea whether he signed for slot, 300K or even 500K.   No idea.    Our very last pick from Louisburg JC will have to be an overslot to get signed.   The slot is 125K, I believe.  It's only a JC but this kid's stats are off the charts and the report said he was a power/speed guy whose arm might be average or below average.   North Carolina state offered him a scholarship so he must have a little something going for him.   I would guess that either he or the HS kid would be garner the most overslot money available.    Since the Orioles are the only team that was connected to Cowser before #9, it's safe to assume they had a deal worked out before they drafted him.   

 

Orioles may have to pay up a lot to sign Reed Trimble. I'd bet that's where a lot of the savings are going. He seems content in going back to Southern Miss if the money isn't there.

 

Burns also reportedly has a deal in place for "slightly overslot"


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#22 Mike B

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 01:27 PM

Slot was $188k, but he's probably an overslot guy?
 
After praying and talking with family I have decided that I am going to forgo TCU and sign with the Baltimore Orioles. Thank you to TCU baseball for extending me the offer and all they have done for me. But I’m happy to say, Go O’s

I think they made up their mind to get this kid, and pay for him, when he wowed them in a tryout at Camden Yard tryout.

Definitely an over slot guy.


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#23 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 02:13 PM

Saw a tweet that said his exit velocity was in the 99.5th percentile.



#24 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 03:45 PM

Saw a tweet that said his exit velocity was in the 99.5th percentile.

 

Of what group?



#25 Slidemaster

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 03:46 PM

There isn't any type of player who become stars more than "rarely". In most drafts maybe a handful will become stars and another two or three handfuls will become regulars.

You'd have to define "safe" and "risky" before trying to quantitatively say if one or the other is more likely to become a star. By the nature of those definitions, you are implying that safe will hit more frequently but risky would hit bigger. Intuitively it makes sense, but I don't know if it makes sense in actuality.


To me, "safe" means a college player with more polished tools but less physical talent or raw ability. "Risky" means a high school kid with freak physical talent who needs to refine and polish his skills. The ceiling feels like it should be higher for the HS kid.

Is that how it always goes? Definitely not, but I'm curious now how many elite players of the last 20 years were taken as a high schoolers rather than a college player.

#26 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 03:57 PM

To me, "safe" means a college player with more polished tools but less physical talent or raw ability. "Risky" means a high school kid with freak physical talent who needs to refine and polish his skills. The ceiling feels like it should be higher for the HS kid.

Is that how it always goes? Definitely not, but I'm curious now how many elite players of the last 20 years were taken as a high schoolers rather than a college player.

 

https://bleacherrepo...hool-or-college

 

This article summarizes the last 10 years by college/HS/amateur, all players who had a 5+ WAR season some point in that time range (and a further breakdown of guys with multiple 5+ WAR seasons).  Looks like it's about a 60/40 split between college and HS, ignoring the amateur guys.

 

That's where the guys who are good came from.  And not necessarily the results of HS and College guys taken in the 1st round or top-10.  You're talking about the success rate of top picks from college vs top picks from HS, which is a slightly different question than the one this article addresses.  I think you'd want to look at only top-10 picks or some similar cutoff, and see the career or single-season production from each guy.



#27 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 03:58 PM

Of what group?


For some reason I can’t find the tweet but I think it was the draft prep league/camp that he must’ve participated in.
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#28 makoman

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 04:50 PM

Of what group?


This was on the Perfect Game link I posted earlier and they said of the grad year class. So high school seniors. No idea how many players get measured.
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#29 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 05:35 PM

This was on the Perfect Game link I posted earlier and they said of the grad year class. So high school seniors. No idea how many players get measured.


Ah yes, that was it. Thanks.

#30 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 23 July 2021 - 06:39 PM


I've seen it kinda play out in years past, where like someone I know was real high on this HS kid and wanted to pay him whatever it took to get him. I hadn't even heard of the kid, kinda like this one, had a decent scholarship somewhere, but wasn't in the top 100 HS kids or anything. I was kinda meh about it.

But then 3 years later you see his name start to crop up in the top 10 or so of the first round and you're like, man that name is familiar, why do I remember that? And then it hits me it was that kid that this guy wanted to get for a couple mil (old draft rules back then), and now he's going to be up for a $5-10m bonus, and I was like crap. Totally whiffed on that one.

You just don't quite get the respect for the overslot game until this happens and you don't see it at first, or just haven't seen them, and then 2-3 years later they are a top of the first round pick.

Obviously teams fall in love with certain kids and start talking to them. Bring them in for workouts, talk numbers, etc. My question is how do these teams know when to pull the trigger on a Willems. Obviously they really want him but they also need to get other talented guys in rounds 2-5. How do you know the 8th round is the round to pull the trigger vs the 6th or the 10th? How much do you hold your breath as a GM worrying about other teams. My sense is unlike the NFL draft where a team can take a guy right out from under you at any time some of these prep kids are likely only going to 1 or 2 teams. Probably because they tell other teams they wont sign with them and will go to college. There still is nothing stopping a team from drafting the player and calling the bluff.

#31 dude

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Posted 23 July 2021 - 08:09 PM

 Probably because they tell other teams they wont sign with them and will go to college. There still is nothing stopping a team from drafting the player and calling the bluff.

 

Look at the 'undrafted' in the mlb.com draft tracker.  Littered with top100 (eleven) and top250 with HS kids.  Obviously everyone can talk and a kid can give you his number.  Heck, tell him to bump the number to scare off other teams....I mean, what's another 200k at that point.

 

Draft class is the draft class at this point, they got him, so we can hope he's a top catching prospect in 2026.



#32 dude

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Posted 23 July 2021 - 08:16 PM

1M feels like a lot for this kid, but they gave Mayo and Baumler 1.75 and 1.5M last year....so whatever.



#33 Mike B

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Posted 23 July 2021 - 09:49 PM

They clearly liked what they saw in his work out at Camden Yards.  

 

He is the only HS player they took so someone really liked him.


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#34 JeremyStrain

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Posted 24 July 2021 - 12:23 PM

Obviously teams fall in love with certain kids and start talking to them. Bring them in for workouts, talk numbers, etc. My question is how do these teams know when to pull the trigger on a Willems. Obviously they really want him but they also need to get other talented guys in rounds 2-5. How do you know the 8th round is the round to pull the trigger vs the 6th or the 10th? How much do you hold your breath as a GM worrying about other teams. My sense is unlike the NFL draft where a team can take a guy right out from under you at any time some of these prep kids are likely only going to 1 or 2 teams. Probably because they tell other teams they wont sign with them and will go to college. There still is nothing stopping a team from drafting the player and calling the bluff.


Sheer numbers. There are just too many players out there to find them all. I'm willing to bet you most pro players can tell you 2-3 guys that should have gotten a chance but never did. Maybe that obscure area the scout only got out there once, and that game was a terrible game for a kid. I can tell you there were two kids from my senior year team that should have both gone pro. One ended up getting drafted a couple years later after some JUCO time, but shouldn't have had to do that. The other, I don't know if he just never got an offer but took a different career path. But 6-5, that threw mid 90s at 16? But as you can imagine not a lot of scouts get out to see slower, lower Delaware. We lost to Delino DeShields' HS in the state tournament so people pass through there sometimes.

 

There's a chance with some of these kids that not a single other team is on them. That's the whole principle behind the travel sports insanity these days, because those at least will get into showcases, and tournaments which are more likely to draw scouts than a backwater HS game. Look at those local kids drafted. I know the one from AA County played for Rawlings. And those teams are like a level above "travel". The Rawlings, Gambrils Athletic Club, teams like those are like the elite. They have teams that play the local circuits and then they have like all star teams that they use for showcases that have teams from like 3-4 different states on them.

 

It's the same reason Club Volleyball is more important than HS these days, and why Club soccer, while watered down, isn't far off from it. It's more economical for scouts to go to a 12 hour tournament, and see 200 of the best players in an area or region than to chase down individual HS games. Usually by those points they've already seen them at tournaments and they are following up for extra looks. There are TONS of talented players that can't afford these insane travel programs and just do Rec - HS paths that slip through the cracks. A whole reason why they try to start the urban programs near large cities because there are so many hidden athletic kids that you'll never see without it.

 

It's a broken system, and sometimes you just get lucky.


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#35 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 28 April 2022 - 05:37 PM

18 year old catcher was promoted to low A Delmarva today and is in their starting lineup. Adley raved about him, apparently he has been impressing everyone all spring.



#36 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 28 April 2022 - 05:38 PM

18 year old catcher was promoted to low A Delmarva today and is in their starting lineup. Adley raved about him, apparently he has been impressing everyone all spring.

Nice to see an 18 yr old playing full season ball


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#37 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 28 April 2022 - 09:01 PM

Threw out two runners attempting to steal in his debut.




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