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#21 RichardZ

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 04:00 PM

It has nothing to do with Elias' abilities scouting and drafting, but Kjerstad has been a disaster.  Same goes for Baumler.  

 

 

Has been as in "so far".  Yes.   The book is not written and it's not the reason they were "bad picks" if that's the argument.



#22 RichardZ

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 04:03 PM

If Elias didn't try to get cute with the 2nd pick, neither one would be our problem.

Is that his fault? No, but it is the truth.

 

Right.  It's not his fault that both are injured.  Pitchers all come with risk but he waited until the 5th round to take that risk.  NO ONE could have foreseen what happened with Kjerstad.    Unfortunately, only a healthy Kjerstad has a chance of proving that Elias made a good pick there.  If he doesn't we'll have to continue to listen to your drivel.   



#23 Slidemaster

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 04:08 PM

Right. It's not his fault that both are injured. Pitchers all come with risk but he waited until the 5th round to take that risk. NO ONE could have foreseen what happened with Kjerstad. Unfortunately, only a healthy Kjerstad has a chance of proving that Elias made a good pick there. If he doesn't we'll have to continue to listen to your drivel.


Answer me a question.

Why bother sucking if you're not going to take elite talent with your hard-earned draft capital?

#24 BSLNickStevens

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 04:53 PM

Anyway...John Rhodes...welcome to Birdland! 


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#25 Mackus

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 05:01 PM

Answer me a question.

Why bother sucking if you're not going to take elite talent with your hard-earned draft capital?

I think the tanking is more about saving/making money than it is about draft position. Draft position as a major benefit is just the cover story for fans that aren't paying close enough attention. The first pick is a little different, better odds with that one, but for the most part draft choices have very low odds of being anything more than a decent regular and this is baseball where evenif you get lucky and find a star doesn't really change things that dramatically like finding a QB or NBA All Star. Being bad as a strategy for eventually being good is a horrible and unsupportable strategy, IMO. I'd guess that Elias knows that.

#26 BaltBird 24

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 05:03 PM

I think the tanking is more about saving/making money than it is about draft position. Draft position as a major benefit is just the cover story for fans that aren't paying close enough attention. The first pick is a little different, better odds with that one, but for the most part draft choices have very low odds of being anything more than a decent regular and this is baseball where evenif you get lucky and find a star doesn't really change things that dramatically like finding a QB or NBA All Star. Being bad as a strategy for eventually being good is a horrible and unsupportable strategy, IMO. I'd guess that Elias knows that.


Except when those few extra wins land you Chris Smith instead of Mark Teixeira. I get what you're saying, though.

#27 makoman

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 05:11 PM

Except when those few extra wins land you Chris Smith instead of Mark Teixeira. I get what you're saying, though.


Hope that’s not what we say about Marcelo Mayer one day.

#28 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 05:12 PM


Hope that’s not what we say about Marcelo Mayer one day.

Sucks we only played 60 games or whatever. Probably end up top 3 otherwise. Maybe even top two and it sounds like they would've taken Davis or Leiter. Then again, Cowser may end up better than both

#29 RichardZ

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 05:25 PM

Answer me a question.

Why bother sucking if you're not going to take elite talent with your hard-earned draft capital?

 

Was Austin Martin and "elite talent"?    His numbers in AA this year don't scream "elite" to me.   Elias used all of his draft capital last year.  Not the way you wanted him to but he did use it.   To get a fair assessment of how he did, we'll need a little luck in the health department to see Kjerstad back on the field.  We'll also need 2-3 years to see if Austin Martin truly was an elite talent or just a very average run-of-the-mill prospect.

 

Elias, in his mind, is trying to maximize his "draft capital" when he doesn't view your "elite" talent  as quite as "elite" as you do.  EVERYONE said this draft was not top heavy in high end talent but deep in overall talent.   That alone tells you that none of these guys at the top are really considered "elite" talents as there may have been in some other drafts.   I read some articles that mentioned Kalil Watson going top 5 and maybe #1 overall.   Where did he go?   14?  

 

Having said that, I was actually rooting for the Orioles to take Rocker because I though he fits a need and has a high ceiling.

 

Last thing.  It's good to be skeptical.  It's also good to have an open mind.   Just ragging on every pick for the sake of ragging on every pick is just weak, especially for someone who has no idea.


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#30 Slidemaster

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Posted 12 July 2021 - 05:50 PM

Was Austin Martin and "elite talent"? His numbers in AA this year don't scream "elite" to me. Elias used all of his draft capital last year. Not the way you wanted him to but he did use it. To get a fair assessment of how he did, we'll need a little luck in the health department to see Kjerstad back on the field. We'll also need 2-3 years to see if Austin Martin truly was an elite talent or just a very average run-of-the-mill prospect.

Elias, in his mind, is trying to maximize his "draft capital" when he doesn't view your "elite" talent as quite as "elite" as you do. EVERYONE said this draft was not top heavy in high end talent but deep in overall talent. That alone tells you that none of these guys at the top are really considered "elite" talents as there may have been in some other drafts. I read some articles that mentioned Kalil Watson going top 5 and maybe #1 overall. Where did he go? 14?

Having said that, I was actually rooting for the Orioles to take Rocker because I though he fits a need and has a high ceiling.

Last thing. It's good to be skeptical. It's also good to have an open mind. Just ragging on every pick for the sake of ragging on every pick is just weak, especially for someone who has no idea.


First of all, I was really hoping for one of the top end arms in last years draft, but I digress.

I'm well aware of what the strategy is. My point is that Elias isnt trying to win, and the players he likes (or guys in that vein) would still be there if they were picking later in the 1st round. Almost everything he's been doing he could still do if he were making a good faith effort to help the team win. Why are we throwing away seasons for guys like Cowser?

I don't rag on every pick. What irks me to no end however is this mindset that it's better to have a bunch of pretty ok prospects rather than a few excellent talents. When I see a team that is so top heavy in pitching talent passing over someone like Rocker, it drives me crazy.

Is Rocker a guarantee? No, nobody is. I hope Cowser becomes the best player in the draft. However, the approach is maddening to me when we are so critically needy for pitching, and Elias seems to feel like you don't need high end pitching prospects to consistently develop high end pitchers.

#31 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 14 July 2021 - 06:48 AM


I think the tanking is more about saving/making money than it is about draft position. Draft position as a major benefit is just the cover story for fans that aren't paying close enough attention. The first pick is a little different, better odds with that one, but for the most part draft choices have very low odds of being anything more than a decent regular and this is baseball where evenif you get lucky and find a star doesn't really change things that dramatically like finding a QB or NBA All Star. Being bad as a strategy for eventually being good is a horrible and unsupportable strategy, IMO. I'd guess that Elias knows that.

100%. I hate this narrative that Elias's main objective is to tank for a high draft pick. As if he could spend considerably more on the payroll if he wanted but is choosing not to just to try to get a top 3-5 pick. Now, if he has been told he can bank money for future years when there is already more internal talent then maybe I could buy he was doing this as a strategy. You bank money for the future and likely get top picks in the process. I think we all question thats the case. My guess is Elias is doing what he can with the money he's allowed to spend. He's doing things internationally both building a complex and signing higher profile guys. Hes likely improved the analytics department. He's brought in more tools and technology to try to help with player development. If he was allowed to spend say 120 mil this year on payroll he'd do it. I believe that. I doubt he'd make a long term big money commitment at this time but he'd spend the money as best he could on the big league ballclub. Whats the downside to throwing money at guys on short deals. You make the product better and if the players are producing you likely can flip them for young, controllable talent if you're out of contention.

#32 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 16 August 2021 - 09:12 AM

Promoted to A Delmarva

#33 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 02:16 PM

A: .266 (.715), 20 R, 4 doubles, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 9 BB, 6 SB

 

8.6% walk rate

15.2% strikeout rate

.106 ISO

100 wRC+






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