388 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Offensive profile to me is similar to Markakis. I believe he's going to hit for avg and take his walks while limiting strikeouts. The question is going to be how much pop he can develop.

[Mike in STL]

Does this mean that…

Kjerstad may not play ever again.
No plan to extend Mancini and Mountcastle takes over 1B permanently.
Giving up on Yusniel Diaz.
All of the above?

[Slidemaster]

“Hit: 20/55
Presently, there are question marks about Cowser’s ability to hit at the next level. Cowser has shown strong bat to ball skills but started off the 2021 NCAA season accumulating more strikeouts than desired. Like the 2020 season, before it was cut short, Cowser has also started off the season slowly. With proper development, his hit could turn into an above-average tool as he hits from an upright, slightly open stance with his knees slightly bent and medium handset. At times, he rests his bat on his shoulder until the pitcher gets into his windup and swings to make contact. He is selective at the plate and shows a patient approach.”

Not sure I like reading that at all. Basically, he doesn’t hit low ranking college pitching all that well, but he stands and swings a certain way that should play in the pros. I don’t know. Sounds like having a 6’5” WR who runs a 4.3 40, but has frying pan hands.

Is it normal for a pick this high to have a PV grade of 20, in any category, much less the most important category? 20 turning into 55 also seems really really optimistic.

That is truly frightening. "If the hit tool devlops" is the scariest phrase in baseball scouting.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Does this mean that…

Kjerstad may not play ever again.
No plan to extend Mancini and Mountcastle takes over 1B permanently.
Giving up on Yusniel Diaz.
All of the above?

No, it means this is baseball.
And you aren't drafting thinking about the ML roster.

[Slidemaster]

Offensive profile to me is similar to Markakis. I believe he's going to hit for avg and take his walks while limiting strikeouts. The question is going to be how much pop he can develop.

Markakis had a 20 hit tool and struck out too much?

[BSLRoseKatz]

Does this mean that…

Kjerstad may not play ever again.
No plan to extend Mancini and Mountcastle takes over 1B permanently.
Giving up on Yusniel Diaz.
All of the above?

Couldn't you do this for any position though?

 

If they take a SS would it mean they're giving up on Gunnar/Westburg and won't make an effort for someone like Correa in FA?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Markakis had a 20 hit tool and struck out too much?

The kid can hit. His hit tool isn't 20. He walked more than he struck out.

The fact that you hate it gives me that much better of a feeling that it works out.

[Slidemaster]

The kid can hit. His hit tool isn't 20. He walked more than he struck out.

The fact that you hate it gives me that much better of a feeling that it works out.

Scroll back and read the post by Mike Randall.

I hope it works out, but taking high floor low ceiling players is boring and not what a team that is largely devoid of talent at the MLB level needs.

It is doubly not what you should be doing with a top 5 pick and a chance to land someone truly elite.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Well, DJ Stewart raked the ACC and we see how well that worked out.

Yeah that's true and you can find busts from every power conference. Just wondering what the process is like to figure out what a .300 average against Stephen F. Austin means compared to a .300 average against Vanderbilt.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah that's true and you can find busts from every power conference. Just wondering what the process is like to figure out what a .300 average against Stephen F. Austin means compared to a .300 average against Vanderbilt.

He hit for team USA. It was also noted on the podcast with Loftus that he was the best or one of the best at hitting high velocity in this draft. The guy is going to hit. Take it to the bank. It'll come down to how much pop is in the bat and how the glove plays.

[makoman]

“Hit: 20/55
Presently, there are question marks about Cowser’s ability to hit at the next level. Cowser has shown strong bat to ball skills but started off the 2021 NCAA season accumulating more strikeouts than desired. Like the 2020 season, before it was cut short, Cowser has also started off the season slowly. With proper development, his hit could turn into an above-average tool as he hits from an upright, slightly open stance with his knees slightly bent and medium handset. At times, he rests his bat on his shoulder until the pitcher gets into his windup and swings to make contact. He is selective at the plate and shows a patient approach.”

Not sure I like reading that at all. Basically, he doesn’t hit low ranking college pitching all that well, but he stands and swings a certain way that should play in the pros. I don’t know. Sounds like having a 6’5” WR who runs a 4.3 40, but has frying pan hands.

Is it normal for a pick this high to have a PV grade of 20, in any category, much less the most important category? 20 turning into 55 also seems really really optimistic.

This was written 3 months ago. He finished the year hitting .374 with a 12.6% K rate.

I’ve read a few places call him the 2nd best hitter in college.

Shrug. None of us here know anything tbh.

[BaltBird 24]

Nick Markakis was the best hitter of the last 20 years that we drafted not named Manny Machado and he was from a Young Harris College and was more liked as a pitcher than a hitter.

Billy Rowell had the most power of any HS bat anyone had seen in 40 years (probably an exaggeration) but you get the point.

[BobPhelan]

Heres our podcast with Stephen Loftus breaking down the pick and what it means for the rest of our draft: https://forum.baltim...-draft-day-one/

[NickStevens]

I don't know what Prospects Worldwide is but I will place my trust in real prospect evaluators like Eric Longenhagen and others who refer to Cowser as one of the top college hitters in the country. No clue where a "20" hit grade tool comes from, other than apparently whoever the college kid is that wrote that. 

[Mike in STL]

Couldn't you do this for any position though?

If they take a SS would it mean they're giving up on Gunnar/Westburg and won't make an effort for someone like

Correa in FA?

But we know they won’t make an effort on someone like Correa, and SSs, like Mountcastle and plenty of others, were SS by default as the best players on their team or something. I don’t know enough about the guys that they could play 3rd or 2nd as well. I mean, Chris is right, this is baseball, and position of need plays about zero role in who they draft. Which is sad when your MLB team sports like a 7.00 team ERA.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don't know what Prospects Worldwide is but I will place my trust in real prospect evaluators like Eric Longenhagen and others who refer to Cowser as one of the top college hitters in the country. No clue where a "20" hit grade tool comes from, other than apparently whoever the college kid is that wrote that. 

 

Same scouting report gave him a future value of 55 with the hit tool.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Old friend Stotle / Nick Faleris ... had Cowser 8th overall at his site 2080 Baseball: 
 

https://2080baseball...-draft-ranking/

[Mike in STL]

Cowser was teammates at Sam Houston with Jordan Cannon, current Delmarva catcher, 10th round, 2019 draft. Be nice to have a friend help you settle in.

[Grindelwald]

I don’t hate the pick but I don’t like it either. I’m sick of this quantity over quality bullshit too. Elias is already wearing thin with me.

Kjerstad was a bs pick as well and not that I’m happy about what’s happened to the kid, but Elias kind of deserved the bad fortune that he got with his medical troubles.

[Slidemaster]

I do feel better seeing that there is least some disagreement about his hit tool. A 20 is abysmally low.

I'm still just underwhelmed. Not much power, poor arm, Maybe he'll hit. Feels like the floor if he makes the majors is a .700 OPS but the ceiling is under .800.

When guys like Rocker and Watson and Lawler are there to be had, it still feels like getting socks for Christmas. I said it before and I'll say it again - why are we trying to lose of the guys we're taking with those premium picks would still be available if we were a competitive team?