102 replies to this topic

[Old Man]

Or keep the guy, because he is pretty damn good.

Dang, now thats a blasted good idea.

[fishteacher]

I agree with keeping Means. Dude is 27? 28? Imagine if he continues to pitch like this over the next 3 seasons, we build a team around him, and the the bats show up from the farm sustem the next 2 years...yeah I’ll pay him and go for a ring/. So sick of hearing to trade and restock the farm system. How’s Pittsburgh working out? The do the same damned thing every year..:

[bmore_ken]

Why do I think the Mets would want to trade for Means?  

 

He's probably the top player that is potentially available for an well resourced owner motived to make something happen.

 

The Mets have a good team.  Adding a dominant LHed starter for the next 3 years to pair with deGrom would be a heaedline stealing power move in a market that demands that type of energy.  There's so many reasons for Cohen to do things like this.  He's going to do something.  He'll find some real-estate to take.  I can't imagine a more rewarding move for his situation.

Why do you think the Mets would take on Davis's contract as a condition for getting Means who doesn't really have a solid track record established? Means is having an amazing season, but he hasn't pitched anything close to this season in his life. 

[bmore_ken]

Or keep the guy, because he is pretty damn good.

That's the camp I'm in at this point. 

[dude]

I'm saying that the idea that the Mets helping the O's out by taking the Davis contract doesn't actually help put a winning product on the field. The Orioles would not use that freed money to reinvest into the team. Ergo, I'm not interested in them pursuing that avenue for a Means trade. Instead, just give me the best farm talent he can fetch.

 

I'm not arguing for trading him (you do understand that, right?)

 

If the Orioles were able to operate in a way which creates the most opportunity to win, I'd prefer to extend him.  I've already discussed the details and we've bandied about the justification for different considerations.

 

The Orioles media has already floated trading Means.  I'd suggest that's intentional and trading him will have nothing to do with rebuilding or winning at any point.  "In the middle of an extended rebuild so they'll be able to build an elite talent pipeline and compete for a long time" will be the justification for doing something like that (+Mancini, +Santander, +others).

 

The by-product of moving the Davis contract would have nothing to do with creating an ability to spend money.  They can spend whatever they want now.  They could put another 120M into the roster.  They are choosing not to and that's intentional.  They are clearly desperate to preserve short term money. Action after action after action.

 

It's amazing to me that nobody sees the collision coming.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I can do math.

[dude]

Why do you think the Mets would take on Davis's contract as a condition for getting Means who doesn't really have a solid track record established? Means is having an amazing season, but he hasn't pitched anything close to this season in his life. 

 

I don't think anyone picked up on it here, but Heyman tweeted about a week ago that the Mets (among other teams) had checked in on trading for John Means during the offseason.  He wasn't really a National name yet for a variety of reasons but I think everyone that is/was paying attention here certainly saw the upside of what he was doing.  Last 4 starts was kind of the recovery upside hidden by the earlier season (understandable) struggles.

 

2021 performance and clearly the no-hitter have raised his stock to a ridiculous level.  Again, he's probably the best combination of performance, control and cost as a SP in MLB right now.  It's why the Orioles should extend him, it's also why other teams may/will make a play.

 

The Mets are in a more unique situation (which I've already described) where if they wanted to pull the trigger, they could.  This wouldn't be Alderson-Elias, it would be Cohen-Angelos.

 

Not that it matter, but the 'surplus value' discussion shows up here.  If they were going to 'buy' John Means as a FA after this season, it would cost more than 20M a season and more than 3 seasons....assuming he stays on something of his current track (again, looks repeatable).

 

If Cohen wants to make it happen, he can go make it happen and again, he is the new owner of the Mets, talking about Championships in a City dominated by the cross-town rivals.  There's a bunch of reasons to throw down and he can do it simply because he wants to.  He does it, negotiates the fair market buyout of his portion of the Davis contract and Chris heads to Texas for his post-baseball life. 

 

There's risks for everyone on all sides.  Sale and Syndergaard went down for TJS.  Mike Soroka was one of the best young pitchers in the NL and tore his achilles.  Snell's 2018 season has been different than his other seasons.  Everyone gets an oblique injury.  That's not negative, again, I'd extend and commit to Means now (I've seen enough), Cohen would certainly be in the same boat.

[hallas]

Well, I think we can put the Means and Davis for peanuts trade talk to bed now. The Os are better served hiring lawyers to make sure they collect on any contract insurance at this point.

[JoyinMudville]

I don't trade Means. I build a rotation around him

[dude]

Well, I think we can put the Means and Davis for peanuts trade talk to bed now. 

 

You think last night's game precludes him from being traded?  It'd more likely be a catalyst.

 

As it relates to trading him (again, I wouldn't, but this isn't about what I'd do), what would you consider a package that is not 'peanuts'?

 

That's sort of the question here, IF he was traded, what would you want to see in the package. 

[hallas]

You think last night's game precludes him from being traded? It'd more likely be a catalyst.

As it relates to trading him (again, I wouldn't, but this isn't about what I'd do), what would you consider a package that is not 'peanuts'?

That's sort of the question here, IF he was traded, what would you want to see in the package.

No, I was referring to Davis' season ending hip surgery. I would trade Means by himself for a monster haul, maybe. But Means and Davis together I was never on board with, and his hip surgery both makes it difficult because of approval needed to trade IL players, and not worthwhile because the Orioles are more likely to be able to collect insurance.

I think the Orioles will have gotten massively lucky on the Davis deal if they can collect insurance. They have gotten out of paying most of his salary last season because of the shortened season, and if they collect insurance after this year that's another several million they don't have to pay. That 156M contract basically will have become 130-135m, which still sucks but it isn't nearly as bad.

[Mackus]

I'm pretty certain I recall hearing that the Orioles do not have insurance on Davis' contract. Can't find anything official looking either way.

[weird-O]

I'm pretty certain I recall hearing that the Orioles do not have insurance on Davis' contract. Can't find anything official looking either way.

I thought I read that insurance companies were no longer insuring pro-sports contracts, because the losses were outweighing the premiums. 

[Slidemaster]

I'm not arguing for trading him (you do understand that, right?)

If the Orioles were able to operate in a way which creates the most opportunity to win, I'd prefer to extend him. I've already discussed the details and we've bandied about the justification for different considerations.

The Orioles media has already floated trading Means. I'd suggest that's intentional and trading him will have nothing to do with rebuilding or winning at any point. "In the middle of an extended rebuild so they'll be able to build an elite talent pipeline and compete for a long time" will be the justification for doing something like that (+Mancini, +Santander, +others).

The by-product of moving the Davis contract would have nothing to do with creating an ability to spend money. They can spend whatever they want now. They could put another 120M into the roster. They are choosing not to and that's intentional. They are clearly desperate to preserve short term money. Action after action after action.

It's amazing to me that nobody sees the collision coming. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can do math.

Why float the idea as something they "could do" if you don't want them to do it?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Why float the idea as something they "could do" if you don't want them to do it?

For discussion? Because he thinks the Orioles will do it?

[Slidemaster]

For discussion? Because he thinks the Orioles will do it?

I would get doing that as a passing comment, but the multiple paragraphs of justification make it sounds a lot like it's something he thought might be a good idea.

I guess it doesn't matter either way.

[Mackus]

My preference is to always compete. Do the best you can every season with a plan for winning now and later. I've said this in other places, but my preference would be to extend Mancini and Means and you could talk me into Santander pretty easy today.

That said, this isn't about what I'd do.

From the opening post of the thread. Emphasis mine.

[Slidemaster]

From the opening post of the thread. Emphasis mine.

I guess the point is to discuss the darkest timeline. Usually with the Orioles that isn't far from what actually happens.

[JeremyStrain]

I thought I read that insurance companies were no longer insuring pro-sports contracts, because the losses were outweighing the premiums.

I can’t imagine them getting out of the business, they’d just raise the premiums to the point they could actually make money again, and then teams would pass on the cost of the premium to the player during negotiations. Like you want $100m well injury insurance on that is $5m so we can do it but you’re going to have to eat the $5m and you’ll bet $95m which would then turn into fine we want $105m then.

But insurance isn’t my area, just the theoretical finance of it.

[JeremyStrain]

I guess the point is to discuss the darkest timeline. Usually with the Orioles that isn't far from what actually happens.

Unfortunately. They have a way to go to show us they won’t do the worst case. Hey you know what would be fun? Taking these guys to court over arbitration to try to save every Nickle we can and then letting them walk as free agents cause they have almost no value by the time we are ready to deal them.

I would be trying to secure the guys you feel could contribute to a WS team like Means, Trey and Santander to cheaper than FA contracts and then focus on filling holes until you have an actual competing team. The pieces they have the could be closer than we think.

[hallas]

I thought I read that insurance companies were no longer insuring pro-sports contracts, because the losses were outweighing the premiums. 

 

I thought the premiums and deductibles increased a lot.  It's possible we didn't pay it, I just assumed we did.

 

Regardless the O's saved like 13 million because 2020 was partially cancelled.  That's a pretty good outcome for a player that has been terrible.  If we released him we would have been on the hook for the whole thing.