Even with a "total collapse", I think if MD wins this, they're pretty much in. They're not even really on the bubble at this point. You beat MSU after the week that they've had, I think even losing their final 2 and then the 1st round of the Big 10 tournament and they'd probably still be safe.
Of course, it would be better to just keep winning and not worry about it.
I think you're probably right, especially after last night's big win for MSU.
I'd still be pretty damn nervous if they ended up losing to Norhtwestern, PSU and then the 1st BTT game. But you're probably right.