222 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Also while actually winning one is certainly the main goal, you don't know who can win one and who won't until the end of their careers. All you can do in the midst is have a guy that you think is good enough to win win. Lamar undoubtedly is. Furthermore, I and many others think he's so good that he actually is good enough to be the reason you win one.

But in terms of actually doing it...how many active guys have won one? Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Wilson, and Mahomes. Am I forgetting any? 6 active starting quarterbacks have a Super Bowl win.

So does that mean only six guys are worthy of starting for a NFL team? Are guys like Rivers and Newton and Stafford and Ryan players who should've never been extended?

How many currently active guys do you think will win another one between now and the end of their careers? Because it's not gonna be a dozen of them.

Critcism aimed at his playoff performances are fair and he might never win one. He might never get over that hump but you have to get into the tournament to win one. Lamar has given us that opportunity every year so far in his career and there is no reason to expect that to change anytime soon.

[makoman]

Critcism aimed at his playoff performances are fair and he might never win one. He might never get over that hump but you have to get into the tournament to win one. Lamar has given us that opportunity every year so far in his career and there is no reason to expect that to change anytime soon.

 

Yeah, we are a spoiled franchise when "He's only good enough to get us to the playoffs every year" isn't good enough. Who has been to the playoffs each of the past three years? Ravens and Chiefs in the AFC, Saints and Seahawks in the NFC. Once you get there anything can happen if you get hot at the right time and have some luck.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I will say that Tide, annoying as it, is consistent with the Lamar "criticism". Doesnt only come out of the woodwork when things are at their worst. The haters that lay in wait to pounce during Lamar's worst moments are cowards.

[McNulty]

Yea he’s what would happen to Trea if he watched football.

[Ravens2006]

I wouldn't feel a dire need to go above and beyond to do an extension this off-season. If it happens at a reasonable, fair number then fine. If not, then fine. No huge harm in doing it inseason next year, or before the option year, assuming he's still at or above current productivity. I don't see any imminent deals coming up before his that would rock the market value that much anyway.

[cprenegade]

I think it would be smart to extend him now.  And unless his production just falls off of a cliff, the price won't come down, and could only go up by a lot.  The Ravens have invested in Jackson by putting an offense in place that only he can really run with efficiency.  Moving on would cost the team in terms of having to rework their whole offense.  Once upon a time the Ravens were unsure of a QB so they waited to offer him an extension or a new contract.  When it came time to do so, they had to give him the biggest contract of the time.  Don't make the same mistake.  Get the contract done now.  

[makoman]

Doing some mindless browsing, I had totally forgotten that the 2015 Panthers went 15-1 and went to the Super Bowl, and had the ball twice in the 4th quarter down 6--those drives were a three and out and Von Miller's 2nd strip sack that basically sealed it. But they were certainly capable of winning. 1st in the league in points, 1st in rushing att, 27th in passing att. The D was very good, 6th in points and yards.

 

Cam completed under 60% of his passes for 3800+ yards with a 99.4 rating and 61.4 QBR, and ran for over 600 yards. Had 495 attempts (compare to 401 and 376 for Lamar 2019/2020). His playoff passing games were 1) low volume efficient (16-22, 161 yards), 2) very good (19-28, 335 in a blowout) and 3) not good (18-41, 55 rating in the SB, 2 key fumbles lost). He was 26 that year, it was his third playoffs after being mediocre his first two (1-2 with ratings of 79-82).

 

Anyway, all I'm saying is I don't see why it's so outlandish for Lamar to have a year like that, which is Super Bowl winning caliber. He needs to clean up his mechanics again, get over whatever makes him get tight in the playoffs, and the coaching staff needs to get out of his way more (more hurry up for example). No guarantees those things happen but I'd rather hope for that than start over.

[JStruds]

Also while actually winning one is certainly the main goal, you don't know who can win one and who won't until the end of their careers. All you can do in the midst is have a guy that you think is good enough to win win. Lamar undoubtedly is. Furthermore, I and many others think he's so good that he actually is good enough to be the reason you win one.

But in terms of actually doing it...how many active guys have won one? Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Wilson, and Mahomes. Am I forgetting any? 6 active starting quarterbacks have a Super Bowl win.

So does that mean only six guys are worthy of starting for a NFL team? Are guys like Rivers and Newton and Stafford and Ryan players who should've never been extended?

How many currently active guys do you think will win another one between now and the end of their careers? Because it's not gonna be a dozen of them.

Is Foles still active? Regardless if you missed one, the point is clear and well taken.

[Ravens2006]

I don't buy the idea that Lamar can't/won't win a Superbowl as a starting QB. QB is critical, but there isn't "one way". The Ravens won with Dilfer. The Eagles won with Foles (and some defense and trickery). Manning's two titles... HE didn't actually play a huge role in those playoff runs ironically. They were two of his worst playoff runs of his career statistically, but defense played HUGE roles each year. His production was more "game manager" like. Hell in 2006 he threw 3 TDs and 7 INTs in 4 games. His finale he completed like 55% with 2 TDs and 1 INT in 3 games...

Marino never won a Superbowl. If there was ever a QB whose skillset suggested he'd win a Superbowl it was Marino.

And disagree as many might... But Troy Aikman has three rings and a HoF jacket... to me he was a game manager on a fantastic roster.

[Mackus]

Is Foles still active? Regardless if you missed one, the point is clear and well taken.

I was thinking amongst current starters. So not Foles/Wentz or Flacco.

[ivanbalt]

If they don't extend Lamar, what's the plan?  Hope we get lucky again in the bottom half of the first round with a QB that can get the Ravens to the playoffs every year?

[Mackus]

Plenty of guys have been clearly good enough to win a Super Bowl without winning one. So I don't get the idea of declaring or asking if "the Ravens will/won't win a Super Bowl with Jackson". That's not analysis. That's just predicting trivia. It's purposeless and meaningless. It wouldn't have been poignent analysis for some Dolphins fan in 1985 to declare that "Dan Marino will never will a Super Bowl as quarterback". It just would've been a good guess where the level of play is not directly correlated to the result being graded. It's like saying JJ Watt isn't good enough to win a Super Bowl.

Is Jackson good enough to be the quarterback and eat up a huge chunk of salary cap on a Super Bowl winning team? I think undoubtedly yes. Whether they ever do or don't win a Super Bowl is a separate question. Jackson could easily answer yes to the first and the Ravens never win. Or Jackson could bottom out and be a liability but the Ravens still win one.

[russsnyder]

Jackson has been the starter for three years and the Ravens have made the playoffs in each year.

 

While the pick six crushed the Ravens' hopes Saturday night, that was a team loss IMO.

 

The Ravens would not have even made the playoffs if not for Jackson's heroics in Cleveland.

 

I'm fine with extending the guy who has lead the team to the playoffs in his first three seasons.

 

Hopefully, Jackson gets to a Super Bowl, if not, I'll enjoy watching him perform for my favorite team for years.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Plenty of guys have been clearly good enough to win a Super Bowl without winning one. So I don't get the idea of declaring or asking if "the Ravens will/won't win a Super Bowl with Jackson". That's not analysis. That's just predicting trivia. It's purposeless and meaningless. It wouldn't have been poignent analysis for some Dolphins fan in 1985 to declare that "Dan Marino will never will a Super Bowl as quarterback". It just would've been a good guess where the level of play is not directly correlated to the result being graded. It's like saying JJ Watt isn't good enough to win a Super Bowl.

Is Jackson good enough to be the quarterback and eat up a huge chunk of salary cap on a Super Bowl winning team? I think undoubtedly yes. Whether they ever do or don't win a Super Bowl is a separate question. Jackson could easily answer yes to the first and the Ravens never win. Or Jackson could bottom out and be a liability but the Ravens still win one.

Yeah it would've been like saying Peyton Manning won't get another Super Bowl after the Mile High Miracle like he was personally responsible for making sure Rahim Moore didn't get caught of position defending Jacoby Jones 

[Mike in STL]

Options concerning an extension this offseason.

 

Option 1. Front loaded deal. Pays Lamar more now, but team friendly exit plan in a few years if his play goes sideways, regression continues...etc. See Jimmy Garappolo as an example.

 

To do this, this year, the Ravens have $26M in cap space and only 41 guys under contract. Figure Ingram is gone, that brings us to $31M in space. The only other players you could save significant money by cutting are Peters, Williams, and Boyle, each saving you $9.4M, $7.5M, and $5.5M respectively. Call it $53.4M in cap space if you drop those three + Ingram. We're not even talking about trying to re-sign Judon or Ngakoue in this scenario either which eats in to that cap space. 

 

Front loaded, in a dollar amount fit for a former MVP, you're looking a a big cap hit once, and a couple on par for the leagues top guys cap hits. But then the option is on the team if Jackson is the man to pay him big base salaries in the later years of the deal. Or move on from Jackson with small salary cap repercussions. The price he pays for getting paid now. 

 

Worth sacrificing those three guys to fit LJ with a $30+M cap hit in there, and still be able to snag a FA or two, draft class, RFA/UFA tenders? I'd rather have the more complete team and push the extension talk down to next year.

 

Option 2. Backloaded deal. Lock in LJ this offseason relatively cheap on the cap the next two years, small increase on the 2021 cap hit, lowering the price of the would have been 5th year option cap hit. But basically if he isn't in the MVP conversation every year after that, he becomes a massive overpayment. See Deshaun Watson and his $40M and $42M cap hits coming up in 2022-2023, that the dead money doesn't allow the Texans out of without restructuring, committing more money and more years. Similar to what the Ravens had to do with Joe Flacco. 

 

In this scenario, you're pushing the sacrifice laid out above down the road two years and changing the names. But you get to keep a more complete team now. 

 

Problem is if LJ's play goes sideways, now you can't improve around him either. You might get 2015-2017 all over again. 

 

I would hold off on the extension for one year for a couple reasons. 

 

1. Already mentioned a bunch a better gauge of where LJ is. MVP, then regression, what happens next year is probably who he will most likely be most often. 

2. Campbell at age 36 and Williams at 33 are FA's after 2021, and together free up $29.4M in 2022 cap space. Earl Thomas' $10M in dead money is wiped clean, that's $39.4M free. That is less of a sacrifice at that point that it would be to let some of these other guys go this year in option 1 to fit LJs deal in. Meaning I want  front loaded deal, not a backloaded one, whenever the time comes. Plan ahead, draft DL heavy this year. A lot of draft capital spent on offense the last few drafts. 11 defensive players compared to 18 offensive the last three years. 

3. Simply put, waiting one year gives you the chance to put together the most complete team, to put together a championship roster before you start having to give LJ more. Even a back loaded deal this year bumps his cap number this year up a $5M more at least?

[makoman]

Options concerning an extension this offseason.

 

Option 1. Front loaded deal. Pays Lamar more now, but team friendly exit plan in a few years if his play goes sideways, regression continues...etc. See Jimmy Garappolo as an example.

 

To do this, this year, the Ravens have $26M in cap space and only 41 guys under contract. Figure Ingram is gone, that brings us to $31M in space. The only other players you could save significant money by cutting are Peters, Williams, and Boyle, each saving you $9.4M, $7.5M, and $5.5M respectively. Call it $53.4M in cap space if you drop those three + Ingram. We're not even talking about trying to re-sign Judon or Ngakoue in this scenario either which eats in to that cap space. 

 

Front loaded, in a dollar amount fit for a former MVP, you're looking a a big cap hit once, and a couple on par for the leagues top guys cap hits. But then the option is on the team if Jackson is the man to pay him big base salaries in the later years of the deal. Or move on from Jackson with small salary cap repercussions. The price he pays for getting paid now. 

 

Worth sacrificing those three guys to fit LJ with a $30+M cap hit in there, and still be able to snag a FA or two, draft class, RFA/UFA tenders? I'd rather have the more complete team and push the extension talk down to next year.

 

Option 2. Backloaded deal. Lock in LJ this offseason relatively cheap on the cap the next two years, small increase on the 2021 cap hit, lowering the price of the would have been 5th year option cap hit. But basically if he isn't in the MVP conversation every year after that, he becomes a massive overpayment. See Deshaun Watson and his $40M and $42M cap hits coming up in 2022-2023, that the dead money doesn't allow the Texans out of without restructuring, committing more money and more years. Similar to what the Ravens had to do with Joe Flacco. 

 

In this scenario, you're pushing the sacrifice laid out above down the road two years and changing the names. But you get to keep a more complete team now. 

 

Problem is if LJ's play goes sideways, now you can't improve around him either. You might get 2015-2017 all over again. 

 

I would hold off on the extension for one year for a couple reasons. 

 

1. Already mentioned a bunch a better gauge of where LJ is. MVP, then regression, what happens next year is probably who he will most likely be most often. 

2. Campbell at age 36 and Williams at 33 are FA's after 2021, and together free up $29.4M in 2022 cap space. Earl Thomas' $10M in dead money is wiped clean, that's $39.4M free. That is less of a sacrifice at that point that it would be to let some of these other guys go this year in option 1 to fit LJs deal in. Meaning I want  front loaded deal, not a backloaded one, whenever the time comes. Plan ahead, draft DL heavy this year. A lot of draft capital spent on offense the last few drafts. 11 defensive players compared to 18 offensive the last three years. 

3. Simply put, waiting one year gives you the chance to put together the most complete team, to put together a championship roster before you start having to give LJ more. Even a back loaded deal this year bumps his cap number this year up a $5M more at least?

 

Good post. Also it's still not clear where the cap is going to be in 2021, closer to $175M or to $195M. I've seen more optimistic reporting in the last month or so but we won't know till around March. Either way, hopefully 2022 is more normal.

[Mackus]

If Lamar let's you delay then delay. If he doesn't, you do whatever it takes. He's got all the power and can wield it as he sees fit.

Refusing to extend him if he wants an extension is a terrible idea, IMO.

I dislike frontloading. It's bad financial strategy. You can carry over cap space form one year to the next, so frontloading is like giving out interest-free cap loans. I'd keep things cheap in '21-22, hits that are similar to what his rookie deal would be if not signed, a few million more at most. Then balloon up after that. To do that you'll need to use guaranteed roster bonuses rather than a big signing bonus.

[Huddle It Up Films]

I think it would be smart to extend him now.  And unless his production just falls off of a cliff, the price won't come down, and could only go up by a lot.  The Ravens have invested in Jackson by putting an offense in place that only he can really run with efficiency.  Moving on would cost the team in terms of having to rework their whole offense.  Once upon a time the Ravens were unsure of a QB so they waited to offer him an extension or a new contract.  When it came time to do so, they had to give him the biggest contract of the time.  Don't make the same mistake.  Get the contract done now.  

 

The bolded echoes my thoughts. Waiting could cost you a lot more like it did with Flacco. There will be a demand for LJ in two years because he is an iconic player even if his next two years go something like 2020 did for him. Teams would throw boatloads at him based on jersey and ticket sales alone. Not to mention if we get a real passing game and he puts up bigger numbers through the air.

 

Extend him now with the Covid cap. Figure out your biggest contract and you know what you have to work with and can smartly sign other contracts. Lamar has shown more than enough that he's worth a 4-5 year investment.

 

I won't go on about his pure QBing skills and intangibles because you guys already know how I feel. I would like to point out something that's obvious to me though...Lamar thinks differently. He's his own person. From what I know and can assume he keeps a close circle. Loyalty and pride mean a lot, he doesn't want an agent, you never hear or can't even find a picture of his longtime girlfriend, he's a pretty private person and doesn't seek the limelight. What this tells me is he might be the type of person who's not out to milk every dollar or care about being "the highest paid, most whatever kind of contract". He's not a bragger/big ego guy.

 

I think winning is what he cares about most. All players say it but I really think Lamar means it. His contract might surprise us with how simply structured and team friendly it is. Also, players want to play with a guy like Lamar who will give them a chance to win every year. Not stat seeking WRs but every other position. I'd like to see us move on from Roman and hire someone who can put together a pass game. I think our run game will be fine with Lamar & Dobbins.

 

I think even if you're not as confident as I am in Lamar, it seems most agree that you roll with him for a few years and evaluate. Put your biggest piece of luggage in the trunk first and load the rest from there.

[Roll Tide]

Options concerning an extension this offseason.

 

Option 1. Front loaded deal. Pays Lamar more now, but team friendly exit plan in a few years if his play goes sideways, regression continues...etc. See Jimmy Garappolo as an example.

 

To do this, this year, the Ravens have $26M in cap space and only 41 guys under contract. Figure Ingram is gone, that brings us to $31M in space. The only other players you could save significant money by cutting are Peters, Williams, and Boyle, each saving you $9.4M, $7.5M, and $5.5M respectively. Call it $53.4M in cap space if you drop those three + Ingram. We're not even talking about trying to re-sign Judon or Ngakoue in this scenario either which eats in to that cap space. 

 

Front loaded, in a dollar amount fit for a former MVP, you're looking a a big cap hit once, and a couple on par for the leagues top guys cap hits. But then the option is on the team if Jackson is the man to pay him big base salaries in the later years of the deal. Or move on from Jackson with small salary cap repercussions. The price he pays for getting paid now. 

 

Worth sacrificing those three guys to fit LJ with a $30+M cap hit in there, and still be able to snag a FA or two, draft class, RFA/UFA tenders? I'd rather have the more complete team and push the extension talk down to next year.

 

Option 2. Backloaded deal. Lock in LJ this offseason relatively cheap on the cap the next two years, small increase on the 2021 cap hit, lowering the price of the would have been 5th year option cap hit. But basically if he isn't in the MVP conversation every year after that, he becomes a massive overpayment. See Deshaun Watson and his $40M and $42M cap hits coming up in 2022-2023, that the dead money doesn't allow the Texans out of without restructuring, committing more money and more years. Similar to what the Ravens had to do with Joe Flacco. 

 

In this scenario, you're pushing the sacrifice laid out above down the road two years and changing the names. But you get to keep a more complete team now. 

 

Problem is if LJ's play goes sideways, now you can't improve around him either. You might get 2015-2017 all over again. 

 

I would hold off on the extension for one year for a couple reasons. 

 

1. Already mentioned a bunch a better gauge of where LJ is. MVP, then regression, what happens next year is probably who he will most likely be most often. 

2. Campbell at age 36 and Williams at 33 are FA's after 2021, and together free up $29.4M in 2022 cap space. Earl Thomas' $10M in dead money is wiped clean, that's $39.4M free. That is less of a sacrifice at that point that it would be to let some of these other guys go this year in option 1 to fit LJs deal in. Meaning I want  front loaded deal, not a backloaded one, whenever the time comes. Plan ahead, draft DL heavy this year. A lot of draft capital spent on offense the last few drafts. 11 defensive players compared to 18 offensive the last three years. 

3. Simply put, waiting one year gives you the chance to put together the most complete team, to put together a championship roster before you start having to give LJ more. Even a back loaded deal this year bumps his cap number this year up a $5M more at least?

Watson can be cut in 23 or 24 with only a 5 or 10 million cal hit respectively 

https://www.spotrac....n-watson-21753/

[hallas]

So year 5 looks like it would be at 26 or so million, and 2 franchise tags would probably be at 30 and 36 million. I'd probably sign him to something like a 5 year deal worth around 180 million with around 40 million signing and like 70 or 80 million guaranteed. Functionally a 4 year deal with some dead money in the 5th year.

That would probably reduce our cap hit in 2022 and 2023, and would make his earliest cut-loose year after 2025, when he's just finished his age 28 season. At that point if he's developed as a passer, we can sign him for another 5-6 years. If he hasn't but he's still effective, maybe a short (3 year) extension. And if he's injured/sucks, well we just cut him, and we're probably screwed regardless.

In general you always want to backload the cap hit though, you never know when your entire team is going to shit the bed and you can just tank a year.