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Balt Sun: Mike Preston: Stage is set for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to prove he’s a long-term answer


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#81 makoman

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 02:54 PM

Doing what he’s good at worked against the bad or under manned teams. It hasn’t worked in the playoffs, games when trailing after the 1st quarters , or the defenses that have figured out how to stop it.

In 2018, the Raiders, were up after the first quarter. 2018 probably doesn't count though. I admit the Raiders were bad

 

In 2019 we outscored the Chiefs 22-10 in the second half. We also outscored them in the 2nd half in 2018. Each was a loss so doesn't count I suppose.

 

The Steelers were up after 3 quarters in the first win in 2019. But no Ben, we can throw that one out, even though he doesn't play defense.

 

The Browns were winning in the 2nd quarter of the 2nd game, but I guess it doesn't count since it wasn't at the end of a quarter.

 

We won after being tied at the half with a Seahawks team that went 11-5. Away at a place notoriously difficult to play. Tied doesn't count I guess. 

 

This year the Colts are 8-4, a top 5 defense by yardage, and were up at the half. How does that play into your narrative? I'm sure that one also doesn't count for some reason.

 

Doing this exercise, the sample size of games where we were down after a particular quarter is quite low. I guess that's why Lamar is 26-9 as a starter. 

 

Of the losses this year, the Chiefs game the whole team crapped the bed, including Lamar. 1st Pitt was definitely on Lamar, probably his worst game, though we still were maybe a borderline call away from winning. 2nd Pitt was the COVID game. Titans and Pats, Lamar could have done more (though he was decent in NE even in awful weather) but those losses to me are on the defense not being able to stop the run without Williams and Calais, or AJ Brown. But I know you'll keep harping on this even if he repeats last year. 



#82 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 02:56 PM

That’s my point ...defenses are giving us the outside and deep in order to cover the middle and stuff the box.


Doing what he’s good at worked against the bad or under manned teams. It hasn’t worked in the playoffs, games when trailing after the 1st quarters , or the defenses that have figured out how to stop it.

The Ravens and Lamar will get lots of people back on the bandwagon when they win their final 4 including a win against the Browns. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are so over hyped due to very soft schedules that it isn’t funny. I predict over division will get beat up on in the playoffs.

So essentially Tenn, Buf, Ind, and KC. Well, we know Tenn and Ind didnt beat up on us. Nor did either beat up on Cle or Pitt. Buffalo doesnt scare anyone. KC is the best team in the AFC so yeah they might beat up on the North.

#83 Roll Tide

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 03:09 PM

1) His mechanics have already come a long way. The word revert is a perfect description but I think you're going too far in thinking he loses them for an entire game. From my perspective he drops his elbow mostly on throws when the play is off schedule. Not all the time but mostly.

 

2) It takes a while to change how you've been throwing for 15+ years and occasionally you will revert. The more muscle memory the better it should get over time is what I'm saying. It was obvious last game that the muscle memory isn't there yet. He went from sailing balls to throwing them downhill.

 

3) I also think you're sleeping on his touch and natural accuracy. He throws a few headscratchers and a few beauties every game generally speaking.

 

4) As far as an extension goes, I wanted to ask if you thought the Watson extension was a "stupid" move? He has his issues too and been beat up a lot in the pocket. Will paying him $35/year look bad in a few years when someone breaks the bank at $45-50/year? And if you wouldn't have extended him, are there any other young QB who's worth an early extension besides Mahomes?


1) Ok ..... But, It happens too many times per game and the good defenses take advantage of it

 

2) I think you right about the 15 years, but I believe he will always do it. I think he could modestly improve but I don’t think he will ever be the guy we saw last year. Defenses hadn’t caught up yet with schemes, the smaller more athletic defender heavy schemes, and figuring what the weaknesses are. As I said, daring the Ravens to beat them outside down the field.

 

3) we seriously disagree here! I think Lamar seriously lacks on touch and I think he’s naturally inaccurate. You can point at QBs that throw a deep ball that allows the receiver to run under the ball and have it drop right into his hands. I think the lack of touch has hurt us a number of times with the wide open guys. He’s not good at making those throws outside and down the field and perhaps the touch is not there due to not having enough arm. I mentioned inaccurate passes a lot to have it questioned profusely here. But, I think there is a difference between hitting a receiver in stride that allows him YAC and to continue to run full speed after the catch. A pass thrown behind a receiver that he catches, caught by jumping into the air, with extended arms and a lunge, etc ... Still count as receptions but aren’t nearly as effective. I think Lamar throws a ton of these compared to Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes etc.

 

4) I wouldn’t give any QB 30+ million per year including Watson. Mahomes right now would be the only exception and I still think the Chiefs regret it sooner or later, I guess you live with the long term if you get a ring or 2 out of it. Right now I think the Chiefs have an excellent chance of winning another. 
 

You’d have to believe that the QB is good enough to win with a diminished talent pool around him. Mahomes will have to prove that he can as he only counts around 10 million this year.

 

Year Total cash Base salary Roster bonus Workout bonus 2020 $10.825 million $825,000 N/A N/A 2021 $22.807 million $990,000 $21.717 million $100,000 2022 $29.45 million $1.5 million $27.4 million $550,000 2023 $40.45 million $5.5 million $34.4 million $550,000 2024 $37.95 million $2.5 million $34.9 million $550,000 2025 $41.95 million $2.5 million $38.9 million $550,000 2026 $41.95 million $2.5 million $38.9 million $550,000 2027 $59.95 million $10 million $49.4 million $550,000 2028 $44.45 million $13 million $30.9 million $550,000 2029 $44.95 million $20.5 million $23.9 million $550,000 2030 $50.45 million $27 million $22.9 million $550,000 2031 $52.45 million $38 million $13.9 million $550,000


We will know better in after seeing what the Chiefs have in 2023 and forward. And that’s if there is no serious injury that would completely blow them up.

 

I don’t think Watson is that type of guy , Brady really never had to be as he played on a discount, Brees played annually under $20 million per until a few years ago. 
 

Honestly, and I know it’s not popular here. But, I run through the 5 years and a franchise year before moving on. I would take that strategy over one of these contracts that cripple your talent pool and force an all out rebuild if the player sustained a serious injury. 
 

When Jackson’s wheels start to decline or if he’s injured the team holding a $30 plus per million cap number is doomed. People call him durable which is fine at 23 unless he blows out a knee (knees aren’t durable ...I know). A player whose passing skills are limited due to poor mechanics, not having enough arm to throw outside & deep, or whatever else will be in trouble as he ages. I hope that Ravens aren’t dumb enough to give him a 7+ year contract that costs +$30 million.

 

BTW, I was never for Flacco’s contract either. He was a solid QB when he was young but not Elite. His hot streak got us a ring and him a contract that wasn’t in line with his true worth. He obviously couldn’t carry the team once his contract caused us to move quality players.


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#84 Roll Tide

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 03:16 PM

In 2018, the Raiders, were up after the first quarter. 2018 probably doesn't count though. I admit the Raiders were bad

 

In 2019 we outscored the Chiefs 22-10 in the second half. We also outscored them in the 2nd half in 2018. Each was a loss so doesn't count I suppose.

 

The Steelers were up after 3 quarters in the first win in 2019. But no Ben, we can throw that one out, even though he doesn't play defense.

 

The Browns were winning in the 2nd quarter of the 2nd game, but I guess it doesn't count since it wasn't at the end of a quarter.

 

We won after being tied at the half with a Seahawks team that went 11-5. Away at a place notoriously difficult to play. Tied doesn't count I guess. 

 

This year the Colts are 8-4, a top 5 defense by yardage, and were up at the half. How does that play into your narrative? I'm sure that one also doesn't count for some reason.

 

Doing this exercise, the sample size of games where we were down after a particular quarter is quite low. I guess that's why Lamar is 26-9 as a starter. 

 

Of the losses this year, the Chiefs game the whole team crapped the bed, including Lamar. 1st Pitt was definitely on Lamar, probably his worst game, though we still were maybe a borderline call away from winning. 2nd Pitt was the COVID game. Titans and Pats, Lamar could have done more (though he was decent in NE even in awful weather) but those losses to me are on the defense not being able to stop the run without Williams and Calais, or AJ Brown. But I know you'll keep harping on this even if he repeats last year. 


Just recite his record after the team is trailing after the 1st quarter. It’s awful and undeniable. And he’s crapped the bed 2 straight years in the playoffs.Give any info that proves any of this wrong  of this and we can have a legit discussion.

 

I predict they get in the playoffs and likely happens again. Hopefully he wins one but we can’t beat the Chief’s or Titans.

 

BTW....I admit the Steelers are a paper dragon And so is Cleveland. Our division records are definitely inflated due to pathetic schedules 


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#85 Huddle It Up Films

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 03:40 PM

Thank you Tide. I genuinely appreciate you going through all that and explaining your thoughts very thoroughly. It's very refreshing to see especially in 2020. You da man!


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#86 Mike in STL

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 04:15 PM


 

Dude ...it’s not worth talking about if that’s what you think. Go back and look at the game thread. Browns arm was fully extended forward and away from his body. I believe I said that I didn’t understand why he didn’t jump to catch the ball. Probably could’ve been caught with better effort by Brown ...but let’s not act like Jackson hit him in the chest. 
 

I addressed the Boykin TD pass in my post and also the pass in the end zone to Brown on the busted play. So please don’t act like I ignored them

 

As to the last paragraph....that’s if they can play the Dallas Cowboys 16 times. 

I just watched the game tape again and Brown is at fault, 100%

 

Go to the 2:43 mark

 

You don't hit guys in the chest when they are running a crossing route. It slows their momentum. He extends his arms cause the ball was placed where it needed to be. Look at the placement of the defenders hand. It's in Browns chest. Could argue that Brown was well covered and Jackson could have went to another option. I'm fine with that. If Brown was the size of a normal football player he probably catches it. But it's a ball that should be caught in the NFL, not tipped up for grabs. Splitting hairs, maybe it was 3 inches away from an exactly perfect spot to put it. But it's a ball that is caught every time by guys who haven't shown frying pan hands all year. 

 

And to the paragraph about QBR, it's adjusted for opponent. So he was actually dinged for playing a crap defense. His QBR would have been higher if he had the same game against the Saints, Steelers, etc...

 

I know you can't stand the guy, so I'll move on. 


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#87 makoman

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 04:21 PM


Just recite his record after the team is trailing after the 1st quarter. It’s awful and undeniable. And he’s crapped the bed 2 straight years in the playoffs.Give any info that proves any of this wrong of this and we can have a legit discussion.

I predict they get in the playoffs and likely happens again. Hopefully he wins one but we can’t beat the Chief’s or Titans.

BTW....I admit the Steelers are a paper dragon And so is Cleveland. Our division records are definitely inflated due to pathetic schedules


Ok what is it? I’m not the one trying to prove something (you are trying to show how bad he is) so it’s on you to show the stat. I admit I don’t know an easy way to look it up but apparently you know it.

Importantly, how does he compare to the baseline? This says that in 2017 73% of the leaders after quarter 1 won. No idea if that’s accurate or the norm but it makes sense. It could be your expectations are too high, most QBs lose when losing after the 1st. Also the numbers may not be statistically significant yet. Just as I’d argue two playoff games aren’t statistically significant, esp when in one we were apparently tipping our plays all game.

https://www.reddit.c...ntent=post_body

#88 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 04:27 PM

Lamar is better at some throws than a lot of QBs. The people who hate him will pick out the ones he's not good at while ignoring the ones where he is good. He's a better tight window redzone QB than Flacco was. Joe could drive the ball accurately to the boundary but didn't read and throw on time well in the redzone. Its why he only had 25+ passing tds twice with a career high of 27. Lamar has a real shot of hitting 25+ his first two full years and he led the league in TD passes last year.
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#89 Mike in STL

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 04:36 PM

With 4 games to go he already has more interceptions than last year to go along with 7 more fumbles. His QBR this year is a whopping 63. I get he missed a game and practice. But , the poor mechanics and footwork have been there all season. Can he fix the mechanics or are they just bad habits that will keep popping up, Plus defenses have adapted.... put the Cowboys and the horrible defense aside and look at the other games. Most games the effectiveness of the keeper hasn’t been there especially around the edge. Defenses have stacked the box and covered the middle dating the Ravens to beat them on the outside. For the most part that hasn’t happened. Blame the line? Who are you gonna blame when Lamar gets paid $35 million and the teams talent pool takes a big hit?

7 fumbles? Are they counting when the center snaps it 6 feet offline? 

 

I can recall a couple botched read options on him, but I don't recall 7 fumbles that were his fault.

 

63 QBR is okay. You're saying whopping like how people say Chris Davis is hitting a whopping .158.

 

Teams have figured it out? Yep. That's why he has rushing TDs of 37, 37, and 50 yards this year. Teams had him pegged when he lost to the Chargers in 2018. How'd 2019 go? Yes. Teams adapt. Football is a chess match. More teams are containing the edge. His long TD runs have been up the middle. That's the Ravens and Jackson adapting back.

 

Bad habits, side arm throws, blah blah blah, same old stuff everyone shuts up about when he's an MVP but is all of a sudden the biggest deal in the world when the team loses a few games. Mahomes often throws sidearm and Peyton Manning had the worst footwork of any QB I've ever seen. Jackson can throw underhanded for all I care. End results matter most. 

 

As much as I defend him, I still don't know If I want him here long term. But I don't have to know for two more years. 


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#90 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 04:40 PM

I often skip Tides Lamar posts but has he layed out what we should do if we were to let Lamar walk after '22.

#91 Roll Tide

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 05:41 PM

Ok what is it? I’m not the one trying to prove something (you are trying to show how bad he is) so it’s on you to show the stat. I admit I don’t know an easy way to look it up but apparently you know it.

Importantly, how does he compare to the baseline? This says that in 2017 73% of the leaders after quarter 1 won. No idea if that’s accurate or the norm but it makes sense. It could be your expectations are too high, most QBs lose when losing after the 1st. Also the numbers may not be statistically significant yet. Just as I’d argue two playoff games aren’t statistically significant, esp when in one we were apparently tipping our plays all game.

https://www.reddit.c...ntent=post_body


I will try and find it ....It was mentioned during the game a couple of weeks ago. I dare not give you a guess ...but it’s lopsided ugly in the wrong direction. I almost didn’t believe It.

 

Also this was in an article from the Ravens website in September 

 

Jackson is now 0-5 as a starter when the Ravens have trailed by double digits at any point in a game and 0-4 when down by at least 10 at halftime. Baltimore mounted a comeback against the Chiefs on "Monday Night Football," pulling to within seven points in the fourth quarter, but couldn't finish it off.


https://www.baltimor...g-off-comebacks


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#92 Roll Tide

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 06:36 PM

Thank you Tide. I genuinely appreciate you going through all that and explaining your thoughts very thoroughly. It's very refreshing to see especially in 2020. You da man!


I know my position isn’t popular and for that I’m sorry.


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#93 makoman

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 06:54 PM

1-4 in the regular season, 0-2 in the playoffs, when trailing after the 1st. I could have missed something, I just looked quickly through the game logs. Titans and Chiefs this year, Browns last year, Chiefs and Raiders 2018. I don’t really buy that as a significant stat. The game plan doesn’t change all that much from when it’s a tie for example when there are 3 quarters to play, and it’s only 7 games. We’ll just have to agree to disagree. I will agree with the notion that he hasn’t shown a great ability to lead a come back, but he hasn’t had a whole lot of opportunities either. Last year PItt and SF were the only game winning drives I can recall him finishing. Most of the other wins were hardly in doubt. A few opportunities have been missed. Editing the games when this happened to correct.



#94 Roll Tide

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 08:07 PM

1-4 in the regular season, 0-2 in the playoffs, when trailing after the 1st. I could have missed something, I just looked quickly through the game logs. Titans and Chiefs this year, Chiefs and Browns last year, and Raiders 2018.

I don’t really buy that as a significant stat. The game plan doesn’t change all that much from when it’s a tie for example when there are 3 quarters to play, and it’s only 7 games. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.

I will agree with the notion that he hasn’t shown a great ability to lead a come back, but he hasn’t had a whole lot of opportunities either. Last year PItt and SF were the only game winning drives I can recall him finishing. Most of the other wins were hardly in doubt. A few opportunities have been missed.


I don’t think it has anything to do with the game plan . I just don’t think he plays well when down. You certainly are entitled to disagree but the commentator flashed it and it didn’t sound good. They obviously thought it was worthy of mention.

 

If he is 1-6 when behind after losing in the 1st quarter that is a pretty bad. That is a good number of games since he’s only been starting for 34 games right now. 


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#95 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 08:20 PM


I don’t think it has anything to do with the game plan . I just don’t think he plays well when down. You certainly are entitled to disagree but the commentator flashed it and it didn’t sound good. They obviously thought it was worthy of mention.

If he is 1-6 when behind after losing in the 1st quarter that is a pretty bad. That is a good number of games since he’s only been starting for 34 games right now.

How did he do in the other 27 games, and why is that irrelevant to you?
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#96 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 08:31 PM


How did he do in the other 27 games, and why is that irrelevant to you?

Apparently he's ignoring people now. Again, Id love to know what his plan is if we let Lamar go. I get the dont pay 40 mil thing but you cant just fill anyone into the spot. Its still the most important position and its pretty hard to find a competent QB. Let alone a good one.

#97 Huddle It Up Films

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 08:59 PM


I know my position isn’t popular and for that I’m sorry.

Speaking for myself... you best not be sorry :). It's great to think for yourself and be open minded. We all think differently and that's part of what makes life interesting. If I thought you were just being argumentative, I wouldn't have responded. I like to know the why.

 

We disagree by a wide margin about Lamar and I'm not into going back and forth or trying to change someone's mind. But I'd ask you to think more about your philosophy that only Mahomes-like QBs are extension worthy because of cost. Finding a QB who can realistically give you a chance to win a Super Bowl despite injuries, coaching and other things that work against you is very difficult imo.

 

Last 3 years (2020 not included) 1st & 2nd round QBs --Key-- SB Caliber, Maybe, Not SB Caliber

2019- Murray, Jones, Haskins, Lock

2018- Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson

2017- Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Kizer

 

You can pick on my subjective rankings for sure. But I think a large majority would agree 7 or 8 of the guys I underlined won't win a Super Bowl barring a perfect storm. Mayfield being the best of that bunch. It's hard to find a guy. And if you strikeout a couple times in a row, you're really setting your franchise back years with wasted picks. I firmly believe that if you have a guy who can lead you to a Super Bowl any given year you have to keep him and pay the piper. If you get it right, he will be a bargain as QB prices continue to rise. Just something to think about.



#98 Roll Tide

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 10:27 PM

So you say for certain that QBs drafted in 2019 are not super bowl caliber?And Jackson is but Allen is a maybe?

 

Joe was worth living through the pan because he won us a super bowl. But again, I hated the contract. Mahomes is the best of the best of the guys you mentioned and I hate his contract also. But, he’s won the big game and has a fair chance of repeating. 
 

After this season we can talk some more if we make the playoffs and maybe win a game. So far though he’s shit the bed I the playoffs and that’s not subjective it’s a fact,


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#99 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 11:04 PM

He didnt shit the bed in the playoffs last year
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#100 Huddle It Up Films

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Posted 12 December 2020 - 11:11 PM

Yeah you lost me. I thought I made it clear that it wasn't for certain. Tried to be as fair as I could with it being subjective. I can go back further but it gets even uglier. 2013-15 is a train wreck of wasted early round QBs. 






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