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BSL: Looking at Possible ETAs for Adley Rutschman


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#1 BSLZachSpedden

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Posted 14 October 2020 - 04:51 PM

Although the 2020 Minor League Baseball season was cancelled because of the COVID-19 pandemic, catcher Adley Rutschman advanced his development. While this year’s progress is not enough for him to make an immediate impact in the majors, it does seem that the Baltimore Orioles can move their top prospect through the minors quickly.

 

https://baltimorespo...dley-rutschman/


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#2 Old Man

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 09:38 AM

Although the 2020 Minor League Baseball season was cancelled because of the COVID-19 pandemic, catcher Adley Rutschman advanced his development. While this year’s progress is not enough for him to make an immediate impact in the majors, it does seem that the Baltimore Orioles can move their top prospect through the minors quickly.

 

https://baltimorespo...dley-rutschman/

I like the Manny comparison, and can see some time towards the 2nd half of next year, if the team is doing decent. If not, then 2022.



#3 BSLZachSpedden

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 10:26 AM

I like the Manny comparison, and can see some time towards the 2nd half of next year, if the team is doing decent. If not, then 2022.

Yeah, I see an outside chance for Rutschman to step in next year the way Machado did in 2012, especially if an expanded postseason is the new normal. While I think the Severino/Sisco tandem gives the Orioles a good bridge to Rutschman, I don't know that either of them will play well enough next year to prevent Rutschman from being a go-to option in a playoff run. 



#4 Old Man

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 10:34 AM

Yeah, I see an outside chance for Rutschman to step in next year the way Machado did in 2012, especially if an expanded postseason is the new normal. While I think the Severino/Sisco tandem gives the Orioles a good bridge to Rutschman, I don't know that either of them will play well enough next year to prevent Rutschman from being a go-to option in a playoff run. 

I dont either, but you never know,

 

Not finding a position on the bench to stick somebody at for added depth, is a good thing to have.

 

If either of those two go to the IR for a short visit. I can see AR coming up to fill the backup role temporary.



#5 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 01:58 PM

Normally I’d think if Rutchman is the kind of player they say he is, he could skip AAA. Wouldn’t be unprecedented.

However, it depends on when the Orioles are “ready to win” in Elias’ eyes. I could see 2021, Full year at AA. 2022, Full year at AAA. 2023 Front office speak about “needing to work on some things”, once clear of expected Super 2 and then some, then by Memorial Day 2023 he’s here.

2020 short season could have played out a lot better if they started Mountcastle at the bigs instead of waiting and waiting and giving Davis playing time. But they are going to save a few million three years from now. Priorities. They will take their sweet time with Rutchman. If being the AAA MVP isn’t breaking down the door, nothing is.

On the off chance the O’s come out hot in one of the next two years, hang around .500 or better into July, maybe he comes earlier. If they put themselves in a hole by May, June, they can easily say what’s the point of wasting service time when we’re losing. Though someone like him could stop the losing, and we have that circular argument all over again.

I predict we don’t see him in 2021. 2022 only if the O’s are playing decent ball. Definitely mid-2023 if he’s still not here by that point.
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#6 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 05:26 PM

Late '21 to late May '22.

#7 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 09:26 AM

What Chris said. I think the O's should be targeting getting him up in Sept next year (and perhaps sooner). But then y'all know my thoughts on the whole MLB approach to development.



#8 dude

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 04:36 PM

I don't see an incentive for the Orioles to push Rutschman to the MLs as soon as possible.  There's no indication they are trying to compete and Service is what it is.  This season had some interesting development challenges and it appears he's had about as much development as you can get in this environment, but the reality is he hasn't even caught a full season of A ball yet.  He hasn't produced significant results anywhere (that's OK, it's still a fact).

 

It wouldn't be unreasonable to go...

 

2020 (22): Camp

2021 (23): A, end AA

2022 (24): AA, end AAA

2023 (25): AAA/ML (protect service year)

2024 (26): TC1 (600k)

2025 (27): TC2 (600k)

2026 (28): TC3 (750k)

2027 (29): ARB1 (5.0) assuming he's pretty good

2028 (30): ARB2 (8.5)

2029 (31): ARB3 (12.5)

2030 (32): FA1

 

If you think that's silly, OK, but he'd spend less than a full year at any level.

 

So contractually, Adley would get about 28.4M through 2029 and hit FA at 32....even if they give him 2023 (partial year in 2022), he's still hitting FA at 31.  If you assume he's great (almost doubling those ARB numbers), he's looking at something like 46.4M through 2029 (or 2028).

 

No matter what anyone says, that's the reality he could reasonably looking at for his career.

 

I always think the solution to solving challenges like this is the contract.  Again, this would be totally up to Adley/agent to pursue something more aggressive but you have to create some incentive for the team.



#9 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 04:41 PM

A catching prospect, who was a college player... who is regarded as the talent Rutschman is... isn't going to be spending that time in the Minors, unless he completely falls on his face. 

It would be shocking to me if he's not up for good by late May '22. 

No contract adjustment necessary. 


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#10 Mackus

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 04:41 PM

I think it would absolutely be unreasonable. Barring a major injury or complete performance failure it'd be beyond ridiculous to not call him up in either of the next two seasons.

I'd put the odds of him playing in MLB by the end of 2022 at about 90%. And all 10% of the negative part is tied up in injury or collosally disappointing performance.
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#11 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 04:54 PM

I think it would absolutely be unreasonable. Barring a major injury or complete performance failure it'd be beyond ridiculous to not call him up in either of the next two seasons.

I'd put the odds of him playing in MLB by the end of 2022 at about 90%. And all 10% of the negative part is tied up in injury or collosally disappointing performance.

Exactly. If he's not playing in Baltimore sometime during the '22 season something really bad has happened. Ideally he kills it next year and we call him up in May of '22. Even if he's not killing it he should be able to do enough to be called up by late '22.

#12 dude

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 09:46 PM

Even if it's May 2022, that's ~28M to FA and he's 31 going into it.



#13 dude

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 09:53 PM

My only point is, if you think he's OK to develop at the Major League level, that you create a contract where he plays now.

 

There's no reason to bring him up and burn development time in ML Service.

 

If I think you can handle it (ie it won't negatively consequence your longer term development) then you just have to give me the years back.



#14 dude

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 10:02 PM

I'd do 6/20 now.

 

2021 .6

2022 .65

2023 .75

2024  2

2025  5

2026  8

 

3M buyout on a 3/40 extension (@12M per plus a 4M buyout on another 5/130M extension or he rejects the buyout and becomes a FA.)

 

So he gets to start now (2021) and he's got contracts laid out that look like...

 

1) 6/20 or

2) 9/57 or

3) 14/183

 

He could be a FA after 2) which would be 9/54.  That's the same year of FA in the May 2023 scenario (6/28.4), or he gives up one FA year in the May 2022 scenario...would still work out better for him.  



#15 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 27 October 2020 - 05:06 PM

So... for those who listened, what did you think of the comments from Callis?



#16 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 27 October 2020 - 06:58 PM

So... for those who listened, what did you think of the comments from Callis?


I agreed with him completely. Loved the interview as a whole.
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#17 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 30 November 2020 - 08:47 AM

MASN: Will 2021 see O’s top prospect in Baltimore?

https://www.masnspor...-baltimore.html

 

#18 dude

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Posted 01 December 2020 - 08:40 AM

I'd be shocked if they do anything to break Rutschman's prospect status for 2022.

 

They may try for a year beyond that. 

 

It gets harder to slow-play him if there's a minor league season and he performs well.






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