578 replies to this topic

[makoman]

Apparently Rocker agreed to $6M pending physical but the Mets say he has an elbow problem. Rocker disagrees. They have till Sunday to figure it out.

[Hooded Viper]

Apparently Rocker agreed to $6M pending physical but the Mets say he has an elbow problem. Rocker disagrees. They have till Sunday to figure it out.

Well his velocity dropped off a ton, if I recall, so not that surprised. Some on here aren’t gonna like to hear this because it doesn’t support their narrative on Elias’ draft strategy

[makoman]

I don't even want to think about the uproar, especially after Kjerstad's issues, if the O's picked Rocker and then didn't sign him due to the physical. Glad it wasn't us to be honest.

 

I also just read that Rocker refused to consent to the Rockies drafting him, they had the 8th pick. They picked him in 2018 (in the 38th round), so they could not pick him again without his consent. I don't know if that's really that bad, but it rubs me the wrong way.

[Mike in STL]

I don't even want to think about the uproar, especially after Kjerstad's issues, if the O's picked Rocker and then didn't sign him due to the physical. Glad it wasn't us to be honest.

I also just read that Rocker refused to consent to the Rockies drafting him, they had the 8th pick. They picked him in 2018 (in the 38th round), so they could not pick him again without his consent. I don't know if that's really that bad, but it rubs me the wrong way.

Not sure if the rules changed, but this happend to Elias when they drafted Brady Aiken. Physical found a smaller than normal UCL. As long as you offer 40% of the slot value, you get that pick again next year if the player doesn’t sign. Astros offered 40% to the penny, he didn’t sign, used the the #2 overall pick as compensation on Bregman the next year, and Kyle Tucker with their regular #5 overall pick. I’d say it worked.

The uproar would be if the Orioles didn’t make an offer large enough to qualify for compensation, but given it happened to Elias he better know. I wouldn’t have a problem with it, especially with pitchers.

[makoman]

Not sure if the rules changed, but this happend to Elias when they drafted Brady Aiken. Physical found a smaller than normal UCL. As long as you offer 40% of the slot value, you get that pick again next year if the player doesn’t sign. Astros offered 40% to the penny, he didn’t sign, used the the #2 overall pick as compensation on Bregman the next year, and Kyle Tucker with their regular #5 overall pick. I’d say it worked.

The uproar would be if the Orioles didn’t make an offer large enough to qualify for compensation, but given it happened to Elias he better know. I wouldn’t have a problem with it, especially with pitchers.

Right, of course they would offer it, a Boras client who thinks he's a top 10 talent isn't going to take <$2M so that's probably no big deal.

 

I've already seen a lot of people saying "Just give him the $6M even if he has TJ he's worth it." I think there'd be plenty of uproar if the O's just took the pick next year. Lots of people love calling the O's cheap, and lots of people love making fun of their physicals.

[Mackus]

They're definitely cheap and it certainly seems like they quash more deals for physicals than other teams.  In defense of their doctors, many, if not most, of the times the O's have backed out of a deal due to a physical the player in question dealt with issues in short order.

[Mackus]

I heard mixed reports on Rocker's velocity.  Some say it dropped but it came back.  I've read up and down.  Anyone know for sure what was going on with that this season?

 

Dropped velocity is a huge red flag.  But if it comes back, then that indicates more of a dead arm period, which isn't a concern, than any of the more scary possibilities.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I heard mixed reports on Rocker's velocity.  Some say it dropped but it came back.  I've read up and down.  Anyone know for sure what was going on with that this season?

 

Dropped velocity is a huge red flag.  But if it comes back, then that indicates more of a dead arm period, which isn't a concern, than any of the more scary possibilities.

 

https://blogs.fangra...roller-coaster/

[TwentyThirtyFive]

There was obviously concern by teams. His stats were still worthy of being that top pick but he fell to 10. Or 8 if you believe he rejected going to Col.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Was personally out on him by draft day. Glad we dont have to have a tough decision to make. As noted above, you're not going to win either way. Either you're cheap and have too tough of a physical standard or you're an idiot for giving an injured guy slot or above slot money.

[makoman]

Hoglund just got $3.3M with TJ imminent, so if that’s the issue I assume Rocker could still get 4 or more, but probably not 6. I am just assuming TJ is the issue since reports said elbow, of course specifics could change things.

I wonder how much it’s worth to have surgery and rehab on the team’s dime? Elective surgery can get pretty expensive pretty quickly even for things that seem routine.

[Mackus]

Hoglund just got $3.3M with TJ imminent, so if that’s the issue I assume Rocker could still get 4 or more, but probably not 6. I am just assuming TJ is the issue since reports said elbow, of course specifics could change things.

I wonder how much it’s worth to have surgery and rehab on the team’s dime? Elective surgery can get pretty expensive pretty quickly even for things that seem routine.

He still has the option to return to school and get surgery on Vanderbilt's dime, no?

[makoman]

He still has the option to return to school and get surgery on Vanderbilt's dime, no?

Ah for some reason I didn’t think of that, probably so.

[Mackus]

Leiter signs for $7.92M, slightly above slot and more than a million more than anyone else has signed for.  Davis, Jobe, and Mayer are all between $6.5M and $6.9M.  

 

Lawler, Rocker, House, and Watson are the last guys unsigned.

[Slidemaster]

Honestly, with the kind of consistency and precision that surgeons are able to repair UCLs, I might not even care if a guy who I know checks all the boxes needs TJ right out of the gate. The recovery percentage, while not perfect, is very very high.

[makoman]

Honestly, with the kind of consistency and precision that surgeons are able to repair UCLs, I might not even care if a guy who I know checks all the boxes needs TJ right out of the gate. The recovery percentage, while not perfect, is very very high.

That’s why Hoglund was still a first round pick and got over $3M. Giolito was expected to have TJ too I think and got almost that much. But it’s still a risk. I feel like 10-20% don’t come all the way back, but I could be out of date with that. Anyway there’s a fine line between being a superstar ace and being just an adequate pitcher so if you lose a little of your stuff… We saw that with Bundy even though TJ wasn’t his problem.

[NickStevens]

Appears that Rocker signing won't be happening by today's deadline- https://www.espn.com...am-sources-say.

 

Curious to see which route he goes next season without signing.

[Mackus]

Watson signs with the Marlins.  ~$4.54M, above the ~$3.7M slot.  Marlins went over their pool (though of course stayed under the 5%threshold where future picks are lost).  

 

The O's stayed a couple hundred K under their allocation, and could've spent another $500k or so without any non-monetary penalties.  Fun times when you're far more frugal than the freaking Marlins. Really hope the Angelos family gets out of the baseball industry.  I'll take my chances with unknown ownership.  There is very little room to get worse.

[BobPhelan]

Mets will leave ~$1.3 million on the table if they fail to sign Rocker. They didn’t draft any back up plans in rounds 11-20.

[Mackus]

Overall strategy-wise in terms of slot bonuses...

 

 

Pirates #1 - $1.92M under

Orioles #5 - $1.28M under

Royals #7 - $1.88M under

Angels #9 - $1.10M under

 

 

Diamondbacks #6 - $0.97M over

Mets #10 - $1.26M over (reportedly agreed-upon bonus went unsigned due to failed physical)

Marlins #16 - $0.79M over

Reds #17 - $1.02M over