583 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

That writeup by Law is discouraging.

Then again, I think Law generally is wrong more than he's right.

I, too, share the same concern as others though, which is where the money they saved with Cowser is going to go. This feels like a draft they literally could have gotten, player for player, from the 15th spot in the draft. The entire thing feels underwhelming.

Wrong.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Wrong.

Great post! 🤣

[dude]

I know your point is that tanking isn’t needed to do what they’re doing with the draft. Just curious why these players in particular are disappointing.

 

I think it's important to make a distinction here.

 

Rebuilding isn't needed to draft.  The Dodgers won the WS and got to draft.  If the Orioles had won the WS, they'd still have one more (CB-B) draft selection than the Dodgers....but that fact has nothing to with my opinion of the draft.

 

My answer is always do the best you can with the draft regardless of where you're picking or why you're picking there.  I don't need Adley Rutschman to win the WS, but if I'm picking and he's there, get it done.  The Astros in 2011 weren't trying to get the 1-1 pick in 2012 but they did and you do what you can with the opportunity. 

 

The RedSox weren't heading into the 2020 season looking to draft the best kid in the 2021 draft, but they had an awful season, earned the 1-4 pick and if the consensus 1-1 kid falls to you at 1-4, take him and work on winning.  They had the 4th worst record last year and they are in first place this year....drafting the best kid in the draft.

--------------

 

I have a series of comments that will likely all get lost in the variance in this thread...I need to get a couple other comments out of the way but I'll come back to the (longer) specifics of why I'd characterize this draft as disappointing.

[dude]

No day three show was also more due to having wives and kids. 

 

Nick, I like you guys and I feel you guys do good work, but come on.  

 

You 3 (or 4 if you want to include Zach) are the most invested in this community in hyper analyzing the the minor league system and your personal investment in that area is great.

 

You had the same wives and kids on Sunday and Monday.  I'm assuming you didn't find them after the Monday show. 

 

If the guys that are the most fired up about this part of the process aren't that fired up about the draft...I think my word (disappointing) is supported by your actions.

 

If you were excited about the draft, I'm guessing we'd have found time for a show.....it's literally the one event in the ENTIRE "REBUILDING" SEASON that matters.  It is the World Series for the 2021 Orioles.  That is neither an attack nor disparaging to you guys, I appreciate the work you guys put in...but it is worth pointing out in defense of my assessment.  No worries.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The contributors get paid for their articles.
Podcasts basically labor of love right now.
They take time to do, and prepare for.

Saying that because they didn't do a pod on day 3 of the draft is an indication of their lowered interest feels like a stretch.

They have work, lives, etc....and also their isn't an abundance of board reactions to their Day 1 and 2 shows...so doing a 3rd would have largely been for themselves.

[dude]

Couple more before I get to the assessment....

 

I'm not pulling a quote here, but I think we've had 2 or 3 comments from different posters that basically suggest that we have no business evaluating players in this (or any) draft...'because we haven't seen them' or whatever.

 

This is garbage. 

 

Jim Callis and the myriad of other people that do this for a living are my (everyone's) scouting department.  I don't have to be a scout or attend every game for a kid to be able to develop some assessment of who they are.  I don't have to have a DRAFT Model to have an opinion...the guy with a DRAFT Model has already shared it with me.  You can have uninformed opinion because you want to believe what you want to believe (regardless of reports) and there is certainly information that Teams (Orioles, others) can access in ways that me and the average Joe might not be able to.  I don't get to hold private workouts.  I don't get to interview the kids, sit with their families, talk to their agents, learn more about their short-term and long-term plans/goals...and a lot of other things....

 

...but there is a significant amount of information out there to develop reasonable and credible opinion on.  It's been pointed out the macro challenges of any success in the MLB Draft and that's true and fair....the data that the community uses to try and build some consensus is hyper recent....because we're going off most recent data at a point in time....because you don't get to defer your decision 5 years into the future with better data and 20/20 hindsight.

 

So my (anyone's) opinion can be a reasonable assessment if I (anyone) puts in a little bit of work.  I'd hope the guys putting millions of dollars into this could refine those assessments more than me working a full-time job and doing this (because I enjoy it) with no resourcing and no staff (and having a wife and kids )...but go look at Mike Elias career [draft and develop] WAR and get back to me.  Not that he can't be successful here, but the track record is absolutely not there today.  So whatever. 

 

Given the historical uncertainty, I'm comfortable not making outlandish statements....but the notion that we can't have informed opinion is absurd.  Jim Callis is my scouting director with his entire professional staff.  I pay him (or any of them) nothing, but I thank the entire community for their assessments.

[dude]

We'll see what the bonuses end up being.  I'm damn sure the Orioles won't give guys bigger bonuses just to make sure they spend their entire allocation for PR purposes, so as long as they divy it all up then we're just discussing the strategy and the evaluations.  But right now I gotta say that "going cheap" and not spending their entire allocation remains a possibility in my mind.   

 

So I agree with the other assessment and this thought.  I'll include the 4YR SR in a minute in other comments...

 

If you make me fall on a line as to whether the Orioles will sign all of their guys or not, I'll take the position they will....but if you told me that Mike Elias needed to (was required to) save 3M in this draft, the best way to do that would be to get a couple of guys in rounds that are compensated if they don't sign and defer the picks until next year....that drops your bonus pool and you get picks later (at the end of the round next year, I believe....Bob? Nick? Stephen?).  Not saying that is what they are doing but I don't think the chance of it is 0% either (usually I would be 0% for 'something else').

 

Like Mackus said, this draft feels like they are going to leave money on the table.

[NickStevens]

Nick, I like you guys and I feel you guys do good work, but come on.  

 

You 3 (or 4 if you want to include Zach) are the most invested in this community in hyper analyzing the the minor league system and your personal investment in that area is great.

 

You had the same wives and kids on Sunday and Monday.  I'm assuming you didn't find them after the Monday show. 

 

If the guys that are the most fired up about this part of the process aren't that fired up about the draft...I think my word (disappointing) is supported by your actions.

 

If you were excited about the draft, I'm guessing we'd have found time for a show.....it's literally the one event in the ENTIRE "REBUILDING" SEASON that matters.  It is the World Series for the 2021 Orioles.  That is neither an attack nor disparaging to you guys, I appreciate the work you guys put in...but it is worth pointing out in defense of my assessment.  No worries.

 

Wow. That's quite the comment that I'll try and ignore because I respect this website, the contributors, and Chris most of all. You want day three reactions? We have a Twitter account as well. Plenty of thoughts there and a lot of positivity about day three picks. I make sure to keep it updated nightly with just about everything because my motto is podcast over family!  

[JeremyStrain]

Nick, I like you guys and I feel you guys do good work, but come on.

You 3 (or 4 if you want to include Zach) are the most invested in this community in hyper analyzing the the minor league system and your personal investment in that area is great.

You had the same wives and kids on Sunday and Monday. I'm assuming you didn't find them after the Monday show.

If the guys that are the most fired up about this part of the process aren't that fired up about the draft...I think my word (disappointing) is supported by your actions.

If you were excited about the draft, I'm guessing we'd have found time for a show.....it's literally the one event in the ENTIRE "REBUILDING" SEASON that matters. It is the World Series for the 2021 Orioles. That is neither an attack nor disparaging to you guys, I appreciate the work you guys put in...but it is worth pointing out in defense of my assessment. No worries.

This is literally one of the most entitled and dickish things I’ve ever read on the internet. And I read Twitter every day.

[Mike in STL]

Nick, I like you guys and I feel you guys do good work, but come on.  

 

You 3 (or 4 if you want to include Zach) are the most invested in this community in hyper analyzing the the minor league system and your personal investment in that area is great.

 

You had the same wives and kids on Sunday and Monday.  I'm assuming you didn't find them after the Monday show. 

 

If the guys that are the most fired up about this part of the process aren't that fired up about the draft...I think my word (disappointing) is supported by your actions.

 

If you were excited about the draft, I'm guessing we'd have found time for a show.....it's literally the one event in the ENTIRE "REBUILDING" SEASON that matters.  It is the World Series for the 2021 Orioles.  That is neither an attack nor disparaging to you guys, I appreciate the work you guys put in...but it is worth pointing out in defense of my assessment.  No worries.

How's the view from way up there on your high horse?

[makoman]

So I agree with the other assessment and this thought.  I'll include the 4YR SR in a minute in other comments...

 

If you make me fall on a line as to whether the Orioles will sign all of their guys or not, I'll take the position they will....but if you told me that Mike Elias needed to (was required to) save 3M in this draft, the best way to do that would be to get a couple of guys in rounds that are compensated if they don't sign and defer the picks until next year....that drops your bonus pool and you get picks later (at the end of the round next year, I believe....Bob? Nick? Stephen?).  Not saying that is what they are doing but I don't think the chance of it is 0% either (usually I would be 0% for 'something else').

 

Like Mackus said, this draft feels like they are going to leave money on the table.

Compensation is only the first three rounds. Norby signed and Cowser definitely will. Rhodes and Trimble total $1.8M slot. If it was Trimble they'd get pick 66 next year, if it was Rhodes they'd get a pick after the 3rd. As far as I know those are the rules.

 

I don't understand how that could possibly be the plan. 0%. If that's the plan and you need $2M that badly why do you sign Galvis and Harvey or even Franco, and tender Severino, there are plenty of league minimum guys at Norfolk that can win 50 games. 

 

That would be really close to last straw, no need to follow the team anymore territory, for me. But again, I think there's pretty much 0% chance.

[dude]

..... the (longer) specifics of why I'd characterize this draft as disappointing.

 

1) It feels like a high-floor draft to me.  You have almost exclusively college kids with one better tool.  It wouldn't surprise me to see a useful player or 2.  Last year, I could envision some of these guys being starters.  Other than Cowser in RF, I don't see where I'd reasonably project any of these guys as starters for a competitive team. Could Norby be a decent hit-first 2B....maybe...but would I project him over Jones, Varva or Westburg....not today.  I know there was an earlier discussion about college projection versus HS and we could likely find players to support either camp...but an more unfinished product might unlock something (through development) to separate them.  It feels intentional in this draft.....nearly all college players and outside of trimble...does any profile strike as a breakout kid?  Mike Elias would explain to me why I'm wrong....and he got the guys he wanted and they're all going to be great.  I hope so.  I wouldn't bet on him being right.

 

2) I'm not a fan of the Cowser pick.  I like it better than Frelick, but that's what I can say.  Doesn't seem likely he'll be in CF, more of a better RF profile.  I've seen the comps (by some) to Markakis. OK.  Let's try a bias test.  Don't look at the numbers.  [I see you cheaters] if Cowser become Markakis, that would be good, right?  Would you feel good about the pick if he become...say...Brett Gardner?  Yes? No?  He may wind up with more WAR than a guy like Lawler or Rocker or Watson, but if you're trying to build something meaningful with that pick, put you money on the meaningful, not the safe profile.  Again, Elias would tell me his performance will be impactful.  I hope so....still wouldn't bet on it. 

 

3) The Orioles were the only team in MLB to take 2 unranked (mlb.com top 250) 4YR SR in the top 5 rounds.  If you look at most of the other teams that took one, you can see by their other selections why they are trying to save money on a richer slot.  That's certainly not the Orioles draft.  Those are no-leverage guys with almost 1M (956k) in slot.  They took 8 4YR SR over all and maybe that's not that remarkable in any direction, but it's certainly limiting on what they need to spend in this draft.  Everyone takes them, some probably took more, but this isn't an evaluation of others drafts, just the Orioles.

 

4) I have no issue taking college arms...but none of them were ranked (again, mlb.com top 250) kids and I think it's an ok strategy to try and find useful bullpen pieces.  Likely a lot of one-plus pitch type guys or maybe injuries so no issues largely there, there just isn't anything exciting (potential/upside) in those rounds.  Time will certainly tell.  

 

5) I was interested in one of the analysts thoughts on the system being lighter in replaceable bats versus pitchers.  It actually got me thinking about all the OFers they're taking....like is the goal to try and fill up each team with a good player at each position....does that actually mean anything.  If you think about it....that means we'd be drafting for minor league need.  That's what it feels like a little.  Did we really need to draft 4 OFers in the first 5 picks?...that will certainly push some older guys into the lower leagues so maybe their chance to perform is better there?  ...but so what.

[glenn__davis]

Yeah, dude, you're out of line here. And not to be a brown noser but I greatly appreciated the On The Verge crew for giving up their time to provide insight on days 1 and 2.

[Chris B]

What an awful, disrespectful, utterly egregious take.

[dude]

So anyway....I've suggested some thoughts on what I'd have rather seen.

 

There's maybe 2 approaches to over-slot and one is guys higher rated falling and the other is trying to nab guys before they are higher rated.  The Orioles will likely argue that guys like Trimble and Willems are the latter.

 

I know recent data rules the day and creates helium and the opposite (lead?) in these drafts, but when you have guys that fall on short sample sets, I'd really consider them targets.

 

Again, I'm confident that Elias would explain what everyone he took is the best, hopefully he's right....but....

 

I look at a guy like Adrian Del Castillo who was as high as Davis 6 months ago.  McLain was a top 3-5 kid before struggling early in the season.  Fell back and then started to turn is back on.  You have a guy like Alex Binales that was a projectable LHed bat that fell well back.

 

Lawler would be my pick at 1-5 given that a kid that has spent a fair amount of time in the 1-1 conversation has slipped to 1-5....but if I can't take him, go cut your underslot deal (probably around 4M) deal with McLain and work the rest of the draft.

 

Now...maybe there's some other stuff (my guess) going on and we aren't really doing everything we can....but would the draft be more interesting (at least to those outside looking in) if it was....

 

1-5: McLain

2-41: Del Castillo

B-65: Burke (RHP, MD)

3-76: Binales

4-106: need a 4YR SR here?

5-137: Mike Vasil (RHP, VA)

 

15-437: Nick McLain 

 

Is that better?  Seems like it could be.  At one point that was 3 1st round guys and 2 in the top 10.  Obviously that's not where they're evaluated on draft day, but draft day is about recent samples and the community liked them a lot earlier.  Again, I'm sure someone will tell that everything I said is wrong (cool, whatever) but if you ask me why I was disappointed with the draft then reasons above and what I'd rather have seen to be less (whatever) disappointed...that's at least one version of something that could have happened.

[Mashed Potatoes]

"The guys whose unpaid labor I've been consuming haven't given me enough free content on the exact topics I expect and demand! They should put aside their families for the sake of my entertainment!"

-dude

[Hooded Viper]

Seriously, what in the blue blazes was that post about? Definitely a who the hell do you think you are moment. Ridiculous.

Definition of self-righteous : convinced of one's own righteousness especially in contrast with the actions and beliefs of others : narrow-mindedly moralistic

Chris, this is why we need a dislike, hate, or Go F Yourself button. 😀

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I like how he just proceeds with his dude dissertations without acknowledging and apologizing for stepping over the line.

[RichardZ]

I just wonder if some of the same people who get angry when Elias doesn't choose the consensus player are the same ones who rag on him for picking Appel and Aiken?    That would be kind of funny.   Wouldn't it?

[dude]

I like how he just proceeds with his dude dissertations without acknowledging and apologizing for stepping over the line.

 

What line did I step over?

 

Out of curiosity, do you know how many people were online at the beginning of the Day 1 podcast?