68 replies to this topic

[Mike B]

Baumler officially signed.  All draft picks now inked.

[dude]

Baumler officially signed.  All draft picks now inked.

 

Felt done, but official is good.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Joe Trezza@JoeTrezz·4m

 

Source: Orioles No.18 prospect Carter Baumler, their 2020 fifth-round pick, underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday. The right-hander tore his ulnar collateral ligament at instructional camp and will be sidelined for 12-18 months. #Orioles

[Mackus]

I always assume it's Tommy John any time a prospects thread is bumped.

[24fps]

I suppose the silver lining is that he's getting it out of the way now rather than sometime when his absence would be more damaging, but damn that was quick!

 

It's hard to believe that his UCL was 100% a couple of months ago then suddenly so damaged that he needs TJ surgery.  It would be good to know exactly what the physical exam for high school pitchers consist of.  I suspect that this problem was cumulative from several years of overuse, and if so, why wouldn't an MRI reveal it?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Ugh

[Mackus]

He made a very good decision to take the money rather than go to college!

Hopefully he's one of the guys that bounces back from this and can continue developing.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

For the 10,000 time. Stop drafting HS pitchers. 

[JTrea81]

Unfortunately, like too many young pitchers, he also has adopted a delivery where he points the ball to second base, which boosts his velocity on his pitches, but also likely means injuries in his future. The Orioles would be best to use him as a reliever to minimize the wear and tear on his arm.

 

http://www.oriolesan...-orioles-part1/

 

Saw this one coming a mile away sadly, but didn't realize it would be this quick.  Anybody who continues to pitch like Baumler, Harvey, Bundy etc. will have a date with a surgeon at some point.  

 

But the point still stands.  He should no longer be viewed as a SP.

[BobPhelan]

He’ll be what, 20 when he’s (knock on wood) fully healthy again? No reason at all to write him off as a starting pitcher.

He may end up in the bullpen or never amounting to anything but it’s crazy to make assumptions about an 18 with that kind of stuff. He didn’t tear his labrum.

[You Play to Win the Game]

No pitcher has ever come back from Tommy John and been effective as a starter, Bob. Just listen to Trea, and we'll all be okay.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Of course Trea has an article about DD 2 years after the guy was fired and ghosted by MLB teams again.

[Mike B]

He’ll be what, 20 when he’s (knock on wood) fully healthy again? No reason at all to write him off as a starting pitcher.

He may end up in the bullpen or never amounting to anything but it’s crazy to make assumptions about an 18 with that kind of stuff. He didn’t tear his labrum.

True.  Unfortunately Tommy John is a normal pitchers injury...it is a setback, but pitchers recover.  Baumler is so young, he will have his chances.

[Mackus]

True. Unfortunately Tommy John is a normal pitchers injury...it is a setback, but pitchers recover. Baumler is so young, he will have his chances.

Many pitchers recover to previous levels. But many don't. I don't have any numbers to back this up but I think its roughly a coin flip.

Tough to judge success rate of the surgery for prospects because you don't know if they fail because of the surgery or just because 90% of them fail anyways.

[Mike B]

Many pitchers recover to previous levels. But many don't. I don't have any numbers to back this up but I think its roughly a coin flip.

Tough to judge success rate of the surgery for prospects because you don't know if they fail because of the surgery or just because 90% of them fail anyways.

True, but my point, was TJ surgery is a normal thing for pitchers now.   It happens, I am not sure any organization has been able to avoid it.

[JeremyStrain]

True, but my point, was TJ surgery is a normal thing for pitchers now.   It happens, I am not sure any organization has been able to avoid it.

How many has Strasburg had now?

 

How many pitchers went down with it just this season?

 

Yes it's not 100% everything will come out fine. And it's early in his development. But it's a lot more likely he comes back fine than never does anything. A whole lot of sky falling here.

[JeremyStrain]

Many pitchers recover to previous levels. But many don't. I don't have any numbers to back this up but I think its roughly a coin flip.

Tough to judge success rate of the surgery for prospects because you don't know if they fail because of the surgery or just because 90% of them fail anyways.

Pretty sure it's 85% right now. But like you said, that doesn't account for the ones that just fail because they were going to fail anyway. But as far as successful surgery and getting back to where they were physically. 85%.

[Mackus]

Pretty sure it's 85% right now. But like you said, that doesn't account for the ones that just fail because they were going to fail anyway. But as far as successful surgery and getting back to where they were physically. 85%.

That number sounds like the "recovers enough to pitch professionally" percentage and not a "back as good as they were" percentage which admittedly would be far more difficult to quantify.

[JeremyStrain]

That number sounds like the "recovers enough to pitch professionally" percentage and not a "back as good as they were" percentage which admittedly would be far more difficult to quantify.

As far as the orthos and NIH where I saw the numbers it's about them being physically where they were or better pre injury. Who can speak to the mental impact from it, or fringe-y players that may just not be good enough after a 2 year recovery. Like you said, good luck quantifying that...just too many variables. I guess if you did an analysis on JUST top players that underwent it and were never the same after you'd have a smaller sample size, but maybe a better picture? Whole lot of variables in that picture. I think back to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, but eventually it was labrum with both I think.

[Mike B]

How many has Strasburg had now?

 

How many pitchers went down with it just this season?

 

Yes it's not 100% everything will come out fine. And it's early in his development. But it's a lot more likely he comes back fine than never does anything. A whole lot of sky falling here.

Pitchers have been getting hurt for as long as there has been baseball.  The difference is now the doctors can fix most things.  I do think that pitchers put more strain on their arms, now.  There was a slow motion shot of Waloker Buehler delivery in his series game.  The tork he was putting on his delivery, and his elbow was incredible.   Anyway, I am sure they will get Baumler back to strength, whether he makes it our not will be on his natural talent.