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2021 NFL Draft


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#41 Roll Tide

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 06:27 AM

Here’s what I’d do....

 

 

personally bring back Judon and Bowser. 

 
I’d do what I’ve been saying trade Orlando Brown to Washington for a 1st and 3rd (Half of what Tunsil was traded for)That nets #19 and #83 and I think is a good deal.
 
Here what I do with the picks, 
 
I trade the #19 to the Jets for #23 and #97.
 
 
So we then  have
 
 
#23 Terrance Marshall JR WR LSU
#28 Alex Leatherwood RT Alabama 
#60 Landon Dickerson C Alabama 
#83 Friermuth TE Penn State or Charlie Kolar Iowa State TE 
#97 Richard LaCounte FS Georgia 
#123 Aaron Robinson CB UCF 
 
#155
#186
 
 
Then try to sign one of Golladay/Robinson/Godwin.
 
 
 
NOTE..... I know some think a 1st and 3rd is too much for Brown. Tunsil netted 2 1sts, 1 2nd, and Kenny Stills. There was speculation this spring that Stanley could be extended or traded for a haul on the Ravens sight. So I’m sticking with my projection. 

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#42 jamesdean

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 07:02 AM

I'd draw the line for a Brown trade at a top 20 pick in the '21 draft. Otherwise its extension, tag, or let him walk after he plays for us next year. I'd also consider a player for player trade but the player we receive has to be a high quality player. Im not doing a decent player and say a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him.

Pretty much agree with you.  A Pro-Bowl OL shouldn't come cheap, especially as much in demand as they are.  First round pick or I'm not even talking to you.  And then follow that with at least a 3rd rounder.  That said, I'd hate to see Brown go because there's no guarantee that his replacement, whoever it is, would come close to his performance.  We've already seen how damaging it is to lose quality linemen.  Don't want to go down that road again if it can be avoided.   



#43 Roll Tide

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 08:42 AM

Pretty much agree with you.  A Pro-Bowl OL shouldn't come cheap, especially as much in demand as they are.  First round pick or I'm not even talking to you.  And then follow that with at least a 3rd rounder.  That said, I'd hate to see Brown go because there's no guarantee that his replacement, whoever it is, would come close to his performance.  We've already seen how damaging it is to lose quality linemen.  Don't want to go down that road again if it can be avoided.   


 

I agree and there are 5+ teams looking for a LT so the demand could be high. They are the Indianapolis , Washington,  Minnesota, Cincinnati , Chicago, and San Francisco.


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#44 Mackus

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 09:48 AM

The Hurst trade makes a Brown trade so much more worthy of a talking point  Until that point I think anyone could accurately say that the Ravens have never traded away a good player (aside from a few vets where trades were really just glorified releases).  But Hurst, while not nearly as good or valuable as Brown, was a talented young guy who the Ravens had no desire to get rid of, but the value in trade was more than his value to the team.  

 

Brown is a bit different, as his value to the team is immense.  But also his cost is about to be very high with the team approaching some belt-tightening once the QB is no longer on cheap rookie salaries and cap hits. He'll get a decent bump up to $3.422M for next year under the proven performance escalator (so will Andrews, Bozeman will get bumped to $2.24M) and then would need to be tagged (~$14M for 2021 but could go down by 2023 based on lowered caps) or extended.

 

I suspect the Ravens will not do it.  But it's a possibility.  They also could keep him for 2021, then tag him for 2022 and trade him then.  Possibly still getting a 1st or at least a 2nd at that point.  The decision is not between 1st & 3rd now or only a comp pick after next year.  



#45 makoman

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 10:26 AM

The Hurst trade makes a Brown trade so much more worthy of a talking point  Until that point I think anyone could accurately say that the Ravens have never traded away a good player.  But Hurst, while not nearly as good or valuable as Brown, was a talented young guy who the Ravens had no desire to get rid of, but the value in trade was more than his value to the team.  

 

Brown is a bit different, as his value to the team is immense.  But also his cost is about to be very high with the team approaching some belt-tightening once the QB is no longer on cheap rookie salaries and cap hits. He'll get a decent bump up to $3.422M for next year under the proven performance escalator (so will Andrews, Bozeman will get bumped to $2.24M) and then would need to be tagged (~$14M for 2021 but could go down by 2023 based on lowered caps) or extended.

 

I suspect the Ravens will not do it.  But it's a possibility.  They also could keep him for 2021, then tag him for 2022 and trade him then.  Possibly still getting a 1st or at least a 2nd at that point.  The decision is not between 1st & 3rd now or only a comp pick after next year.  

 

Yeah, it's just really unusual to pay over $30M for two linemen. The following is really imprecise and not quite correct because I did it based only on average annual value of the deal, not cap hit (this was just far easier), but it looks like only 4 teams approached that. These were the ones over $25M for two guys. 

 

Packers (Bakhtari $23M + Linsley $8.5M) 

Texans (Tunsil $22M + Martin $11M) 

Eagles (Johnson $18M + Brooks $14M)

Broncos (Bolles $17M + James $12.75M)

Raiders (Brown $16.5M + Jackson $11M)

Titans (Lewan $16M + Saffold $11M)

Giants (Solder $15.5M + Zeidler $12M)

WFT (Sherff $15M + Roller $10M)

Bills (Dawkins $14.5M + Morse $11M)

Cowboys (Martin $14M + Smith $12M)

 

With Stanley at close to $20M, giving Brown anything more than $10M per would be a heavy weight to the OT position, $14M would be the most in the league. It's hard to see them doing that, but who knows.

 

Also an aside, Brian McFarland just said on twitter that he thinks Elliot also got the $2.18M PPE, as he barely made it over 35% playing time total for the first 3 years. 


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#46 JordanKough

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 12:24 PM

Didn't Hurst request a trade, too? That may have played a part in our willingness to trade him. 

 

Mekari's ability to play a decent but not great RT makes me more willing to trade Brown, but I'm with Biggsy, I'd prefer to find a way to keep the band together if at all possible. 



#47 Biggsy

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 12:31 PM

The Hurst trade makes a Brown trade so much more worthy of a talking point Until that point I think anyone could accurately say that the Ravens have never traded away a good player (aside from a few vets where trades were really just glorified releases). But Hurst, while not nearly as good or valuable as Brown, was a talented young guy who the Ravens had no desire to get rid of, but the value in trade was more than his value to the team.

Brown is a bit different, as his value to the team is immense. But also his cost is about to be very high with the team approaching some belt-tightening once the QB is no longer on cheap rookie salaries and cap hits. He'll get a decent bump up to $3.422M for next year under the proven performance escalator (so will Andrews, Bozeman will get bumped to $2.24M) and then would need to be tagged (~$14M for 2021 but could go down by 2023 based on lowered caps) or extended.

I suspect the Ravens will not do it. But it's a possibility. They also could keep him for 2021, then tag him for 2022 and trade him then. Possibly still getting a 1st or at least a 2nd at that point. The decision is not between 1st & 3rd now or only a comp pick after next year.


The Hurst trade is kind of an apples to oranges argument. Hurst played a non-premium position. And we have Andrews and Boyle. Andrews is a better receiver, Boyle a better blocker. They could afford to let Hurst go because they had players just as good, or better than him at the same position.

Brown, we don't have anyone, nor have the ability to get anyone as good as him. At least not this offseason.


The idea of putting a gaping hole you can't fill in your roster for draft capital, when you're selling out for a superbowl, just doesn't make sense.

If we were leaving the superbowl window or rebuilding, I'd be all for it. We're not. We're in the middle of that window. And if their is one unit that supercedes any other on this team, its the offensive line. Decreasing the talent there is the worst idea.

#48 Biggsy

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 12:35 PM


Here’s what I’d do....


personally bring back Judon and Bowser.

I’d do what I’ve been saying trade Orlando Brown to Washington for a 1st and 3rd (Half of what Tunsil was traded for)That nets #19 and #83 and I think is a good deal.

Here what I do with the picks,

I trade the #19 to the Jets for #23 and #97.


So we then have


#23 Terrance Marshall JR WR LSU
#28 Alex Leatherwood RT Alabama
#60 Landon Dickerson C Alabama
#83 Friermuth TE Penn State or Charlie Kolar Iowa State TE
#97 Richard LaCounte FS Georgia
#123 Aaron Robinson CB UCF

#155
#186


Then try to sign one of Golladay/Robinson/Godwin.



NOTE..... I know some think a 1st and 3rd is too much for Brown. Tunsil netted 2 1sts, 1 2nd, and Kenny Stills. There was speculation this spring that Stanley could be extended or traded for a haul on the Ravens sight. So I’m sticking with my projection.



I'll say it again. If its between Judon or Brown, I'm choosing Brown 10 out of 10 times. Judon is a very average player. Paying him any more than $10m a year is a terrible idea. He's lazy, he is very below average against the run. He is a poor tackler. And he is only an above average pass rusher at best. Sure, he can line up all over and has great versatility. But he's going to ask for top edge rusher type of money, and he doesn't deserve that.

If you tell me I can have Orlando Brown Jr for $15m a year, or Matt Judon for $15m a year. To me, its a no Brainer. Brown gets signed every time.

#49 Roll Tide

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 06:56 PM

I'll say it again. If its between Judon or Brown, I'm choosing Brown 10 out of 10 times. Judon is a very average player. Paying him any more than $10m a year is a terrible idea. He's lazy, he is very below average against the run. He is a poor tackler. And he is only an above average pass rusher at best. Sure, he can line up all over and has great versatility. But he's going to ask for top edge rusher type of money, and he doesn't deserve that.

If you tell me I can have Orlando Brown Jr for $15m a year, or Matt Judon for $15m a year. To me, its a no Brainer. Brown gets signed every time.


 

We need pass rushers unless your having Brown play DE? 
 

They pretty much will regret letting Ngakoue and Judon both leave. I really doubt we get a plug and play DE and I have no confidence that Ferguson is ready.

 

You trade Brown for several reason, the contract, the trade value, and now the cap decrease.


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#50 Biggsy

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 08:39 PM



We need pass rushers unless your having Brown play DE?

They pretty much will regret letting Ngakoue and Judon both leave. I really doubt we get a plug and play DE and I have no confidence that Ferguson is ready.

You trade Brown for several reason, the contract, the trade value, and now the cap decrease.


Judon is an above average pass rusher. Nothing special. Ngakoue added absolutely nothing. He had almost no impact whatsoever.

You won't pay a tackle with all-pro talent, but you'll break the bank and pay a slightly above average edge rusher, elite pass rusher money?

#51 Biggsy

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 08:42 PM

Its so weird. You act like finding a franchise QB and great tackle is as as easy as just drafting another. But pass rushers are impossible to find?


I know your biggest fear is adding to the offense so Lamar actually succeeds and you have to give up on your rhetoric. But if you truly want this team to win, signing guys like Judon to $15m+/per contracts isn't the way you do it.

#52 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 08:52 PM

Edgar Allen, the guy who breaks down tape, said Bowser might have the best pass rush moves on the team. Plus he's good in coverage. Not sure about his edge setting. Regardless he's a guy I want to resign. He'll likely be cheaper than Judon and Yannick and likely offers a more rounded game. Would also welcome Wolfe back.

#53 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 08:55 PM

Ferguson was a healthy inactive a number of games down the stretch. I wonder if he's a potential roster cut.

#54 hallas

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 08:57 PM



We need pass rushers unless your having Brown play DE?

They pretty much will regret letting Ngakoue and Judon both leave. I really doubt we get a plug and play DE and I have no confidence that Ferguson is ready.

You trade Brown for several reason, the contract, the trade value, and now the cap decrease.

Neither Judon nor Ngakoue graded terribly well on PFF and our pass rush has sucked for a couple years now with Judon as the primary rushing threat. We probably made a mistake keeping Judon over Zadarius Smith, but that's neither here nor there. I will say that the Ravens don't seem particularly interested in keeping edge rushers unless they're Terrell Suggs. If I'm the Ravens I'm probably addressing OLB/DE in the draft. That said, if we really do manage to get a first or even a second rounder+other picks for Brown I'm driving him to the airport. I am loathe to make the line weaker but we need a lot of bodies at multiple positions with salary cap limitations, and having the draft picks seems like a huge deal.

#55 Roll Tide

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Posted 22 January 2021 - 05:22 AM

Its so weird. You act like finding a franchise QB and great tackle is as as easy as just drafting another. But pass rushers are impossible to find?


I know your biggest fear is adding to the offense so Lamar actually succeeds and you have to give up on your rhetoric. But if you truly want this team to win, signing guys like Judon to $15m+/per contracts isn't the way you do it.


So since losing Z Smith we’ve had Judon and very much else. I’m not saying we need to bring back both but, I think it’s a mistake to start with Ferguson and hope to get a plug and play guy early.


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#56 Biggsy

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Posted 22 January 2021 - 05:52 AM


So since losing Z Smith we’ve had Judon and very much else. I’m not saying we need to bring back both but, I think it’s a mistake to start with Ferguson and hope to get a plug and play guy early.


But you're ok starting a rookie, or an average at best Mekari/Phillips to protect the best player on your roster?

Judon is a decent player. He's not a guy you pay over $12m per year. He's just not worth it. He has one skill, he is an above average pass rusher, when he wants to be. He is bad against the run, he is a below average tackler, he disappears completely for full game stretches.

The ONLY positives he brings is his versatility and above average pass rush.

#57 Biggsy

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Posted 22 January 2021 - 05:57 AM

Neither Judon nor Ngakoue graded terribly well on PFF and our pass rush has sucked for a couple years now with Judon as the primary rushing threat. We probably made a mistake keeping Judon over Zadarius Smith, but that's neither here nor there. I will say that the Ravens don't seem particularly interested in keeping edge rushers unless they're Terrell Suggs. If I'm the Ravens I'm probably addressing OLB/DE in the draft. That said, if we really do manage to get a first or even a second rounder+other picks for Brown I'm driving him to the airport. I am loathe to make the line weaker but we need a lot of bodies at multiple positions with salary cap limitations, and having the draft picks seems like a huge deal.



Brown is still cheap this year. You have an all-pro potential type RT, who is cheap. And your answer is to trade him ? He might be the 2nd best bang for your buck type player we have on the whole roster outside of Lamar. If the cap is the reason, trading one or your better players, who is currently also one of your cheaper commodities, isn't how you work the salary cap.

#58 Biggsy

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Posted 22 January 2021 - 05:59 AM

Edgar Allen, the guy who breaks down tape, said Bowser might have the best pass rush moves on the team. Plus he's good in coverage. Not sure about his edge setting. Regardless he's a guy I want to resign. He'll likely be cheaper than Judon and Yannick and likely offers a more rounded game. Would also welcome Wolfe back.



Bowser and Wolfe are the definite resigns I want. Bowser offers a far better all around game than Judon or Ngakoue.

Unless Ngakoue's contract demands from last seasom drop significantly, he can kick rocks. Same with Judon. As Rob always used to say, you can't win by paying above average talent, elite type money.

#59 Slidemaster

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Posted 22 January 2021 - 11:45 AM

But you're ok starting a rookie, or an average at best Mekari/Phillips to protect the best player on your roster?

Judon is a decent player. He's not a guy you pay over $12m per year. He's just not worth it. He has one skill, he is an above average pass rusher, when he wants to be. He is bad against the run, he is a below average tackler, he disappears completely for full game stretches.

The ONLY positives he brings is his versatility and above average pass rush.


He doesn't think Lamar is the best player on the roster. And if Lamar gets hurt or doesn't play well because his line sucks, it feeds his narrative that he was never good and not worth building around.

#60 Mackus

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Posted 22 January 2021 - 12:28 PM

I think all these guys are good players.  Judon and Brown are better than good.  Going to be interesting to see how the Ravens prioritize each and what type of money it'll take to retain them.  I think you can make a good argument for most any combination.  






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