81 replies to this topic

[Pedro Cerrano]

The start of the World Cup is Sunday. I was hoping to get some bets in before that. I guess I can just go over to one of the places near me if I can't wait.

Yea for futures you may need to do that.

My advice? Do NOT go on a Sunday morning. You will wait in a long line. If you’re free on a week day afternoon do it then. All the WC futures and individual match odds are up.

[Mike in STL]

Could they have imported the hooch?

I’m guessing no, but the implication was that even though prohibition was a thing, companies still produced beer. In smaller batches and made other things to make ends meet. IIRC Budweiser made soda for a bit. Yuengling got in the ice cream business.

[DuffMan]

Just got an email from Fan Duel that says they're going live on Monday!

[Pedro Cerrano]

Just got an email from Fan Duel that says they're going live on Monday!

Interesting. I had heard Wednesday.

[DuffMan]

At 2pm mobile betting is live for 6 hours as a test run. No betting tomorrow then fully live on Wednesday

[BSLRoseKatz]

There's been plenty of bets that are basically automatic double your money, I got Fanduel and Draftkings +100 bets for a single point and single completion in 49ers/Cards on Monday, there's some for Ravens to score a single point, Wiz/Heat to have a single made three, etc 

[BSLRoseKatz]

Accidentally used 25 real dollars instead of 25 house money dollars for an Eagles parlay so uhh please root for Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown and the Eagles to cover for me lol

[mweb08]

This has been a profitable few days for me. More due to all the freebies and boosts and such than any brilliance on my end.

[BSLRoseKatz]

This has been a profitable few days for me. More due to all the freebies and boosts and such than any brilliance on my end.

Yeah anything beyond +100 if the Ravens score a point has gone poorly for me, I bet on Jalen Hurts to get 200 passing yards and he has one of the best games rushing the ball of his life lol

[You Play to Win the Game]

Yeah anything beyond +100 if the Ravens score a point has gone poorly for me, I bet on Jalen Hurts to get 200 passing yards and he has one of the best games rushing the ball of his life lol

It’s crazy out there isn’t it? I do well in fantasy and straight up pick ‘ems. But start mixing in spreads and props for parlays and Vegas has a way of making me question my manhood within days of going live in MD. Still, managed to turn promos into a few hundo, I’ll take the welcome candy and move on with my life. That said, the Super Bowl, March Madness, etc, it’s nice to just be able to open an app now and let it rip.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

It’s crazy out there isn’t it? I do well in fantasy and straight up pick ‘ems. But start mixing in spreads and props for parlays and Vegas has a way of making me question my manhood within days of going live in MD. Still, managed to turn promos into a few hundo, I’ll take the welcome candy and move on with my life. That said, the Super Bowl, March Madness, etc, it’s nice to just be able to open an app now and let it rip.

Maybe you have but try to read up on some "experts" takes before you place a bet. Not necessarily to follow what they tell you to do but if I find a few of them are on a different side of a bet then me I avoid.

[DuffMan]

Maybe you have but try to read up on some "experts" takes before you place a bet. Not necessarily to follow what they tell you to do but if I find a few of them are on a different side of a bet then me I avoid.

Tell me about it....

 

 

 

[Mike in STL]

I rarely bet on the NFL given the unpredictable nature of it. I can count on both hands how many NFL bets I've placed in my life. Not counting Super Bowl props or something. But Regular season games, probably less than 10 ever. 

 

So if you know me, you've seen where I've made excel models using regression analysis to predict future outcomes. Did this to find expected home runs prior to the 2022 season, Matt Carpenter was in line for a big year according to this, I was laughed at for wanting the O's to take a flier, and if he didn't get hurt he probably hits 90 homers for the Yankees last year (slight exaggeration). 

 

Anyway, I used 2021 NFL stats to find out which ones correlate best to scoring margin. Net passing yards, net TD%, and net 3rd down efficiency. After all the games in 2021, the R^2 was .99+. So 99% of the scoring margins can be accounted for by those three stats. 

 

Started this after a couple weeks into 2022. Kept track of the R^2, it was low after a few weeks, not enough samples. R^2 was up to .80 by week 6, and this past week was .90, highest of the season. I looked back at every week since week 6 and If I bet on games that my expected margin is 5 or 6 points off what Vegas thinks, no more, no less, I would have won 68.8% of those bets, and in no single week would I have done worse than .500. 

 

Decided to place 5 bets this week. Went 1-4. The 1 was the Giants coming in the backdoor in garbage time. 

 

Stupid game. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

This has been a profitable few days for me. More due to all the freebies and boosts and such than any brilliance on my end.

You been betting NBA. Ive made more money betting NBA than anything else. Think Ive only taken 1 L on NBA bets. I know Im down betting soccer. Prob down betting football but its close. 

[mweb08]

You been betting NBA. Ive made more money betting NBA than anything else. Think Ive only taken 1 L on NBA bets. I know Im down betting soccer. Prob down betting football but its close.

Nah, haven't gotten too into NBA yet. Pretty much just the two versions of football. Again though, most of my success has been through these giveaways/promos/boosts. I haven't exactly been a shark.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Nah, haven't gotten too into NBA yet. Pretty much just the two versions of football. Again though, most of my success has been through these giveaways/promos/boosts. I haven't exactly been a shark.

Sharp.

Shark is the one who you owe the money to!

[BSLRoseKatz]

I somehow glitched Draftkings into 16 free bets when I withdrew all my money so I am using my second chance to win things like a +300 parlay on the UTSA Roadrunners

 

[Pedro Cerrano]

I somehow glitched Draftkings into 16 free bets when I withdrew all my money so I am using my second chance to win things like a +300 parlay on the UTSA Roadrunners

Nice. Good luck sir.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Have decided betting dimes on the 4th tier of English soccer could be an amusing gambit 

[Pedro Cerrano]

Prolly not worth a new thread but if you lived in New Jersey and bet on LSU today you’re prolly steamed.

NJ cancelled all LSU Purdue bets because Drew Brees has an affiliation with PointsBet and he’s also — I think — on the Purdue staff in some sort of roll.