789 replies to this topic

[JordanKough]

I don’t get why people keep mentioning the 9-7 record.

They are 8-3 since Tannehill took over.

That’s what you look at.

What they were with Mariota means nothing.

The Pats started the year 8-0 on a padded schedule, too. Guess what happened when they came to Baltimore for a night game after a bye. Chargers, Bucs, Jags, Colts, Raiders were 5 of the 8 wins. Houston rested after beating them in Tennessee 3 weeks earlier. It's hard to respect Tannehill or the Titans for what they've done during a team period that they had an easy schedule. Even the Chiefs game they eked out and likely don't do so if the game is in KC. 

 

The Titans aren't a bad team. But the Ravens are a historically good one. They might be more like a 10-6 team, but I wouldn't put their talent level at 11-5. 

[JordanKough]

If the Ravens don't score on their first couple of drives... (obviously something they've been great at), and say they are down 7-0 after the 1st Quarter....  how tense will you be? 

 

It's interesting because the script here is somewhat similar to the Cleveland (x2), Houston, and KC games. 

 

Ravens go downs and then fumble. Cleveland scores. Punt. Punt. So you're down 7, on the road, 2 minutes left. In 1 half and 2 minutes, the Ravens score 31 points. 

 

Houston, it's a missed FG and downs to start the game. With 9 min. left in the 2nd quarter the Ravens turn it on and pour on 34 points over the next two 15 minute periods and then rest Lamar for the last TD. 

 

In KC, we score nothing in the 2nd quarter, though we were up early, have 6 points the Ravens run off 22 points in the final 25 minutes of the game.

 

I'll be tense, but won't be worried. At any point the Ravens don't hold the lead in this game, I'll be tense. 

[85Knight]

The Ravens have scored at least 20 pts. in every game this season and I think they will against this Titans defense. The question is can Tennessee score 20 against the Ravens. Barring a bunch of turnovers or special teams blunders I don't think they can even if Henry gets his and then it would only make the game close.

Henry is going up against a top 5 rush defense for the 2nd time. He got around 80 yds against the Bucs in the 1st one and I can see about the same against the Ravens. Mano o mano the Ravens win this game 30-14.

[SportsGuy]

The Pats started the year 8-0 on a padded schedule, too. Guess what happened when they came to Baltimore for a night game after a bye. Chargers, Bucs, Jags, Colts, Raiders were 5 of the 8 wins. Houston rested after beating them in Tennessee 3 weeks earlier. It's hard to respect Tannehill or the Titans for what they've done during a team period that they had an easy schedule. Even the Chiefs game they eked out and likely don't do so if the game is in KC.

The Titans aren't a bad team. But the Ravens are a historically good one. They might be more like a 10-6 team, but I wouldn't put their talent level at 11-5.

Yawn

End of the day, talking about them as a team that went 9-7 “for a reason” makes little sense.

That’s the point. The rest of your post is just noise.

[SportsGuy]

The biggest stat I have seen this week is how much Tennessee struggles with TEs.

[JordanKough]

Yawn

End of the day, talking about them as a team that went 9-7 “for a reason” makes little sense.

That’s the point. The rest of your post is just noise.

 

I'm willing to put aside the wins and losses as a matter of evaluation. So I agree with you there. I think the point I'm trying to make is getting a bit conflated because I'm saying something similar. Let me lay it out again. 

 

On tape, this is a team with 9.5 win team via talent. I've now watched all of their games, I've watched the KC, Buff, and Hou games along with the playoff game multiple times. Even with Tannehill against quality competition in the scheme of a competitive schedule they are a team I'd say is somewhere between 9-7 and 10-6. They lost to an awful Carolina team. And they are 1-2 in their last 3 games against playoff caliber opponents. 

 

I'm saying they are a 9-7 team because they play like one not because that's their record. Even with Tannehill. And all the amazing DVOA stats or whatever metrics you want to use that he's posted. 

[JordanKough]

The biggest stat I have seen this week is how much Tennessee struggles with TEs.

 

The bet I like best of all bets this weekend is Andrews over 55 yards for -115. I think Andrews is absolutely going to light them up. 

[Biggsy]

Kind of how I feel too. Very nervous about the unlikely chance of a letdown (been there, done that) but I do think we win pretty easily, especially if there is no rain.

I've been waiting for that let down since the Pats game. Hopefully I keep waiting.

[SportsGuy]

I'm willing to put aside the wins and losses as a matter of evaluation. So I agree with you there. I think the point I'm trying to make is getting a bit conflated because I'm saying something similar. Let me lay it out again.

On tape, this is a team with 9.5 win team via talent. I've now watched all of their games, I've watched the KC, Buff, and Hou games along with the playoff game multiple times. Even with Tannehill against quality competition in the scheme of a competitive schedule they are a team I'd say is somewhere between 9-7 and 10-6. They lost to an awful Carolina team. And they are 1-2 in their last 3 games against playoff caliber opponents.

I'm saying they are a 9-7 team because they play like one not because that's their record. Even with Tannehill. And all the amazing DVOA stats or whatever metrics you want to use that he's posted.

Yea I think this is wrong.

The offense is good. The line is legit. They have weapons.

Defense is big and physical but it’s not great overall.

A top 10ish offense and middling defense is a pretty good team.

If Tannehill plays all year, they win 10 or 11 games.

[SportsGuy]

The bet I like best of all bets this weekend is Andrews over 55 yards for -115. I think Andrews is absolutely going to light them up.

Heard some analysis of this game this morning and people were like, Andrews is questionable with an ankle injury, that could be a problem.

I’m like, do you guys not know that he has been questionable with an ankle injury for the last 2 months?

The lack of research is astounding to me sometimes.

[JordanKough]

Yea I think this is wrong.

The offense is good. The line is legit. They have weapons.

Defense is big and physical but it’s not great overall.

A top 10ish offense and middling defense is a pretty good team.

If Tannehill plays all year, they win 10 or 11 games.

 

I mean none of the points you make here are wrong but it's not jut the formula for a lot of wins, IMO. I'd stretch them to 10. But I just don't think are good enough in those other phases as you credit them for. 

 

Their pass blocking is going to have trouble with the Ravens front. They're actually built for a more standard rush than a stunt and twist front because they're so big and strong. The small switches and the varied angles the Ravens blitz at, I think are going to give trouble.

 

Tannhill's PA numbers are good because they attack the run blitz. If Pierce/Williams can anchor in the middle, the Ravens won't need to run blitz in the middle and I think that will take away a lot of the effectiveness that you've seen from the Titans. 

 

That stats say they are a 10-11 win team but on film, I don't see it. So I could see why this would be your point of view. But I think you'd be more skpetical of them if you had watched more of their games. Particularly the LAC, TB, and Car games. And honeslty the Houston (v1) and Saints games. Just not an impressive team in those games. They weren't even that impressive in NEP. 

[Pedro Cerrano]

Here is why I'm nervous.  Because we have marched into Tennessee twice in our history and knocked them off as a 1 seed and I believe history tends to repeat.

 

Also I am a pessimist by nature.

 

I think, objectively, the Ravens cover, but blah, I will be terrified leading up to this game. 

[SportsGuy]

They aren’t a great team..they are a 10/11 win team. In any given week. A 10-11 win team can struggle vs mediocre teams. That doesn’t really mean anything other than they aren’t a great team.

But they are a very hot team.

I mean, you had the same argument last week and were proven wrong. Props for sticking to your guns but this is a team better than 9-7 and it’s certainly not a team and say “they finished 9-7 for a reason”.

I don’t think they win and a big loss is possible (don’t expect it though) but they are a quality team regardless of what happens tomorrow.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Can Henry twist his ankle in a pot hole tonight?

[Pedro Cerrano]

If Henry has less than 100 yards rushing, what % chance do you give the Ravens?

[Mackus]

If Henry has less than 100 yards rushing, what % chance do you give the Ravens?

 

90%

[JordanKough]

They aren’t a great team..they are a 10/11 win team. In any given week. A 10-11 win team can struggle vs mediocre teams. That doesn’t really mean anything other than they aren’t a great team.

But they are a very hot team.

I mean, you had the same argument last week and were proven wrong. Props for sticking to your guns but this is a team better than 9-7 and it’s certainly not a team and say “they finished 9-7 for a reason”.

I don’t think they win and a big loss is possible (don’t expect it though) but they are a quality team regardless of what happens tomorrow.

 

I said I was wrong about my evaluation of the Pats. Tennessee didn't look like much more than a 9-7 team against what looked like a 8-8 Pats team, IMO. The Pats btw, were 4-5 from the half way point of the season. So even that victory wasn't a huge feather in their cap.

 

The Titans looked exactly like I thought, a team that could score about 13 points agianst a good defense and play mediocre defense. I didn't feel like me evaluation of them was off, just the Pats. 

 

They are a quality team. A 9.5 win team is quality. We don't disagree there. 

 

But they aren't a team that should be beating the Ravens more than 1 times out of 10. 

[JordanKough]

And my bravado about this game is straight evaluation. I'm terrified the Ravens shit the bed and lose this game. 

 

Things I think that aren't being factored in enough, the Ravens getting to rest. The Ravens coming off a bye (Harbaugh is so good off a bye). Home field advantage in a night game during the playoffs. Those are a lot of edges that have to be uniquely baked into evalutating this game. 

 

Also the Ravens Special Teams is a huge advantage, IMO. Titans have not been good there. 

[Mike B]

I have gotten more nervous about this game as the week goes on, but I think the Ravens win this game.   I am glad we got a bye, but the anticipation for this game feels like it has gone on for a year.   Tomorrow is going to be a crawl, waiting for the game.

I am going to see 1917, in hopes it keeps me from going nuts waiting to leave for the stadium.

Go Ravens, I think Lamar puts on a show tomorrow night.  60 degrees and cloudy sounds like Lamar weather.   Let's Go!

[Mike in STL]

The biggest stat I have seen this week is how much Tennessee struggles with TEs.

Dean Pees staple.