Photo

Off-Season Prospect Rankings


  • Please log in to reply
42 replies to this topic

#1 BSLBobPhelan

BSLBobPhelan

    BSL Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 10,027 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 04 November 2019 - 09:28 AM

Baseball Prospectus released their Orioles top 10 today.

 

https://www.baseball...10-prospects-2/

1. Adley Rutschman
2. Grayson Rodriguez
3. Ryan Mountcastle
4. DL Hall
5. Ryan McKenna
6. Yusniel Diaz
7. Adam Hall
8. Dean Kremer
9. Michael Baumann
10. Cadyn Grenier

The State of the System: The 2020 Orioles system is much deeper than recent vintages, but it lacks impact talent beyond the first few names on the list below.



#2 BSLBobPhelan

BSLBobPhelan

    BSL Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 10,027 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 04 November 2019 - 09:30 AM

McKenna at 5 and Grenier at 10 are puzzling. They’re doing a chat about the list this afternoon, hopefully get some reasoning behind those.
  • BSLChrisStoner likes this

#3 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 46,505 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 09:38 AM

No Aikn at all, either.  That's also bizarre.  He doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the proximity to the majors and the projection of having a good shot at being back end starter should get him pretty high on our top-10, IMO.  Personal preference between he and Kremer, but I think he should be on this list.


  • BSLBobPhelan likes this

#4 glenn__davis

glenn__davis

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,569 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 10:38 AM

No Aikn at all, either.  That's also bizarre.  He doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the proximity to the majors and the projection of having a good shot at being back end starter should get him pretty high on our top-10, IMO.  Personal preference between he and Kremer, but I think he should be on this list.

 

Akin's not in my top 10 though I'm fairly bullish on him, but yes, McKenna and especially Grenier being there makes no sense.  I did a top 30 the other day and had McKenna at 19 and Grenier not even on the list.

 

The top 4 seem pretty much set, with Rutschman at the top and the remaining 3 in varying orders.


  • Mackus likes this

#5 BSLBobPhelan

BSLBobPhelan

    BSL Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 10,027 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 04 November 2019 - 04:12 PM

Here’s the chat: https://legacy.baseb...=1572890219#new

The Oriole Report (Baltimore, MD): You guys are by far the highest of anyone I’ve seen on McKenna (typically 15-20 range) and Grenier (borderline top 30), am I missing something in their potential? Especially with guys like Hays and Akin left off the top 10.

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: As always, I can't speak to other list products (honestly wasn't even aware of any other national Orioles product, although I guess more places are doing rolling rankings now). Anyway, I know McKenna didn't hit as much as you'd like in Double-A, but our staff looks showed a broad base of tools, including sneaky pop and solid CF defense. I don't think you can just scout the stat line there. Grenier's glove is a carrying tool and if he hits even a little bit that's a second division regular at the six. Prefer that to Akin's reliever risk and Hays...well, I didn't know what to do with Hays and said as much in the blurb, but he's never hit above Double-A for any sustained period.

The Oriole Report (Baltimore, MD): Which players appear to have benefited the most from the new player development system brought in by Mike Elias?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: So there's usually a year or so lag for major organizational changes with a new GM (Elias is just bringing in his own PD and scouting staff now), so I don't think you can really pin, say, Grayson Rodriguez's breakout on new PD techniques. There's just going to be too much noise here. I suppose actually letting him throw a cutter is a step in the right direction though.


  • BSLChrisStoner likes this

#6 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 129,810 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 04:16 PM

Here’s the chat: https://legacy.baseb...=1572890219#new

The Oriole Report (Baltimore, MD): You guys are by far the highest of anyone I’ve seen on McKenna (typically 15-20 range) and Grenier (borderline top 30), am I missing something in their potential? Especially with guys like Hays and Akin left off the top 10.

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: As always, I can't speak to other list products (honestly wasn't even aware of any other national Orioles product, although I guess more places are doing rolling rankings now). Anyway, I know McKenna didn't hit as much as you'd like in Double-A, but our staff looks showed a broad base of tools, including sneaky pop and solid CF defense. I don't think you can just scout the stat line there. Grenier's glove is a carrying tool and if he hits even a little bit that's a second division regular at the six. Prefer that to Akin's reliever risk and Hays...well, I didn't know what to do with Hays and said as much in the blurb, but he's never hit above Double-A for any sustained period.

 


To be fair, we (BSL) had McKenna 10th in July.


  • BSLBobPhelan likes this

#7 BSLBobPhelan

BSLBobPhelan

    BSL Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 10,027 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 04 November 2019 - 04:17 PM


To be fair, we (BSL) had McKenna 10th in July.


Was shooting from the hip with those questions.

Maybe his glove is even better than I thought.

#8 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 129,810 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 04:20 PM

I thought Hays wasn't included due to having 'graduated'.  If he was eligible, and left off for Grenier.... that's crazy, even if Hays Sept. 2019 at the ML level didn't happen.



#9 SportsGuy

SportsGuy

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 91,979 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 04 November 2019 - 04:26 PM

Horrible list to have those 2 in the top 10.

#10 BSLBobPhelan

BSLBobPhelan

    BSL Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 10,027 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 04 November 2019 - 05:55 PM

I thought Hays wasn't included due to having 'graduated'. If he was eligible, and left off for Grenier.... that's crazy, even if Hays Sept. 2019 at the ML level didn't happen.


I believe he was in the ‘next 10’ so he was eligible.

#11 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 129,810 posts

Posted 09 November 2019 - 11:28 AM

Baltimore Sun: Five takeaways from the Orioles’ top 10 prospect rankings at Baseball America
https://www.baltimor...2wrm-story.html



#12 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 129,810 posts

Posted 14 November 2019 - 08:47 AM

Orioles.com: O's take major step forward in rebuilding effort
https://www.mlb.com/...system-analysis



#13 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 24,848 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 14 November 2019 - 02:09 PM

The list looks much better.  The top 10 looks like a real prospect list as opposed to past years.

 

Gunnar Henderson's picture makes it look like he is 10 years old.  It really stands out next to Kremer.


@mikeghg

#14 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,523 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 17 November 2019 - 09:47 PM

The list looks much better.  The top 10 looks like a real prospect list as opposed to past years.

 

Gunnar Henderson's picture makes it look like he is 10 years old.  It really stands out next to Kremer.

 

What do you think is different about this years list versus last years list other than Adley?

 

....because the rest of the list is what Elias was handed (he was handed the 1-1 pick too).

 

What the Orioles have actually done is not graduated anyone from the past list.  They held everyone back to keep their prospect status in tact.

 

There were no special results offensively in the minors and while there are some interesting things on the pitching side, most of the guys that have performed were guys that were expected to perform.

 

We did nothing unique to add talent to the system in 2019....but you throw the rebuilding label on it and everyone gets excited.



#15 BSLSteveBirrer

BSLSteveBirrer

    Soccer Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,988 posts
  • LocationMS and ID

Posted 19 November 2019 - 11:50 AM

What do you think is different about this years list versus last years list other than Adley?

 

....because the rest of the list is what Elias was handed (he was handed the 1-1 pick too).

 

What the Orioles have actually done is not graduated anyone from the past list.  They held everyone back to keep their prospect status in tact.

 

There were no special results offensively in the minors and while there are some interesting things on the pitching side, most of the guys that have performed were guys that were expected to perform.

 

We did nothing unique to add talent to the system in 2019....but you throw the rebuilding label on it and everyone gets excited.

Seriously? I highly doubt that the O's didn't graduate anyone on that list just so they could stay on the list.



#16 glenn__davis

glenn__davis

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,569 posts

Posted 22 November 2019 - 08:09 AM

The OH Top Ten:

 

  1. Rutschman
  2. Rodriguez
  3. Hall
  4. Mountcastle
  5. Hays
  6. Diaz
  7. Baumann
  8. Lowther
  9. Henderson
  10. Harvey

 

No major surprises there, maybe Henderson a bit higher than expected for me with him being so young.



#17 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 46,505 posts

Posted 22 November 2019 - 09:24 AM

Seriously? I highly doubt that the O's didn't graduate anyone on that list just so they could stay on the list.

 

You're right.  Prospect eligibility is just a similar and correlated symptom of why many were held back, which is service time.

 

Promoting Harvey goes against that a bit, but keeping Mountcastle and Akin down I think were clearly for service time reasons though there obviously is at least enough that both need to work on that they can plausibly say it was for performance reasons.  And they'll stick to those reasons for the first month or so of 2020.



#18 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,523 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 23 November 2019 - 07:27 PM

Seriously? I highly doubt that the O's didn't graduate anyone on that list just so they could stay on the list.

 

Yes.  

 

While service time is certainly a common consideration, the metric of success that people will want to use to promote the value of 'rebuilding' is MiL prospect ranking.

 

I don't present that positively or negatively (they don't care about winning, so it doesn't matter either way).

 

I think it's funny that some people think they aren't paying attention to or don't care about their MiL prospect Ranking.



#19 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 46,505 posts

Posted 24 November 2019 - 09:03 AM

I don't think they care about the ranking. I think they do care about the talent level that justifies the ranking.

If the cared about the ranking they'd have sought a different type of player in return for Cashner. Someone like Dillon Tate, falling star who can still move the needle a bit for your ranking temporarily.

#20 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,523 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 24 November 2019 - 10:02 AM

I don't think they care about the ranking. I think they do care about the talent level that justifies the ranking.

 

My last comment on this point (for now).

 

In past years, it wouldn't be uncommon for the Orioles to lose the prospect status of Hays, Diaz, Mountcastle, Akin and maybe Lowther and Harvey.

 

You think it's an accident that Hays fell 2 ABs short of losing his rookie status?

 

The change in your prospect ranking is one of (maybe the only) metric of rebuilding success.  

 

Prospect status doesn't change your system Talent.

Prospect status has a huge impact on your Talent rankings (the only thing the ignorant public understands).

 

I'm confident they love the narrative "...has taken the Orioles system from #30 to #10 in just one year".  Of course that's evidence of "continuing to pack the minors with as much talent as possible"....except they didn't really add anything unique to the system this year....but they're still taking credit for the change.

 

...and just so I'm clear, I know how to play both the Talent ranking and Service time games, no issues there, it just has nothing to do with avoiding the accountability for winning (which is still my only point).






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=