91 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

The benefit is the same as with anyone, that if he does reach his potential (or continue playing like he did last year, in this case) you have him locked up for less than market rates. The sooner you get a guy signed, the cheaper it will be.

I don't think the risk/reward balance is as favorable for Alberto as I would think it was for a younger player with more control and more upside. But if you sign him now and he does remain reliable for 4-5 years, then you're getting better value than if you waited until he was closer to FA when you're more confident in the future outcome. The uncertainty about his future production adds risk, which reduces the cost.

[SportsGuy]

The benefit is the same as with anyone, that if he does reach his potential (or continue playing like he did last year, in this case) you have him locked up for less than market rates. The sooner you get a guy signed, the cheaper it will be.

I don't think the risk/reward balance is as favorable for Alberto as I would think it was for a younger player with more control and more upside. But if you sign him now and he does remain reliable for 4-5 years, then you're getting better value than if you waited until he was closer to FA when you're more confident in the future outcome. The uncertainty about his future production adds risk, which reduces the cost.

Sure but the question is, why him?

No power, no walking..his value offensively is that he can sustain a 300+ BA.

It’s not that he can’t be valuable but that’s not the profile of someone I would want to ink long term right now.

I would rather pay more later than take the risk on him now.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Sure but the question is, why him?

No power, no walking..his value offensively is that he can sustain a 300+ BA.

It’s not that he can’t be valuable but that’s not the profile of someone I would want to ink long term right now.

I would rather pay more later than take the risk on him now.

I would rather pay less now for two reasons.

1. I think we have seen plenty of what he is and will be for the next several years. Good average. Not a lot of power. Decent to good defense.

2. Worst case is that we extend him and he really is just a role player. The cost of what I perceive a contract to be would not in anyway hinder anything else they want to do down the road. 

 

To me this is a really good risk to take.

[SportsGuy]

I don’t think we have any idea what he is yet. What if he really is just a 280 hitter? That’s still good but that likely gives him a 680-710 OPS...I don’t need that player locked up.

Right now, he is just as likely to be DFA’ed next year bs being worth this deal in a few years.

[Mackus]

I would rather pay more later than take the risk on him now.

Agree

[Mackus]

1. I think we have seen plenty of what he is and will be for the next several years. Good average. Not a lot of power. Decent to good defense.

 

This is too kind.  Saying "Alberto does not have a lot of power" is akin to saying "George Springer has a little pop".  Alberto had the 8th lowest ISO in baseball last year (135 qualified hitters).  He has no power.  At least not to date.  

 

He also has shown an even worse ability to draw walks.  He had the 3rd lowest BB% among that same group of qualified hitters last season.

 

He is purely a singles hitter, unless he improves.   

[BSLChrisStoner]

He struggled last September. 
But last August he was on fire, with 13 xbh's in his 99 ab's. 
I believe there were quotes at the time about him adjusting his approach to drive the ball more. 

I think he should be a guy capable of 35 doubles, and 15-20 homers. 

The big story imo is he looks better to me at 2nd. 

(FWIW...  the available advanced metrics DRS, and UZR/150 liked him at 2nd last year. I thought he looked better at 3rd. This year, in this ridiculously limited sample size, the metrics aren't liking him as much at 2nd. DRS and UZR can be disregarded in-general imo at this point, and they certainly can be disregarded over 8 games... just saying.) 

 

I think with him focusing on position, he looks more comfortable. 
Better turns. More confident. Better around the bag. 

 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I don't see any reason to lock him up. It's perfect that we can go year to year through his age 30 season.

[russsnyder]

I just don’t get the logic behind locking him up now. What’s the hurry?

We already have him cheap and under team control for a while.

I don't see the hurry in locking him up either. He's not arbitration eligible until 2021 and not due to become a free agent until 2023. Let's at least see if MLB finishes the 2020 season and how Alberto does the next fifty games or so.

[SportsGuy]

Btw..I do agree that it’s nice to have a player that, as Glenn Davis so eloquently said, isn’t just a 3 outcome player.

But I also want more than singles.

[BSLChrisStoner]

2 doubles tonight, 6 on the year.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Not sure why guys are not higher on him. In his only full MLB season (last year) he had a .750 OPS. Plays good defense at a middle infield position. And seems to be adding even more strength.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Not sure why guys are not higher on him. In his only full MLB season (last year) he had a .750 OPS. Plays good defense at a middle infield position. And seems to be adding even more strength.

Because he had a career 709 OPS in the minors and even at 2B, had a below average OPS+ of 98 last year. No walks, limited ISO (power). So I guess you think he's going to keep improving, despite the multitude of evidence from his entire professional career that this is who he is? And that's not to knock the guy. I like him a lot. But I don't necessarily think he's part of the future here either. He's fun to watch though.

[Mackus]

Because he had a career 709 OPS in the minors and even at 2B, had a below average OPS+ of 98 last year.

OPS+ is not positional adjusted.

So he was slightly below league average for all hitters. I haven't looked at exactly what OPS second basemen had as a group, but Alberto's 2019 season would be above average offensively for 2B.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

OPS+ is not positional adjusted.

So he was slightly below league average for all hitters. I haven't looked at exactly what OPS second basemen had as a group, but Alberto's 2019 season would be above average offensively for 2B.

I did look this up and posted back up in this thread I think. IIRC his OPS was 12th among second baseman last year and that included Nunez being ranked at 2B.

[mweb08]

2 doubles tonight, 6 on the year.

12 on the year now. Small sample size of course, but he has an ISO of .141, which is up from .117 last year.

The walks are still a huge weakness and will continue to be so, but if he can maintain a .300+ AVG with an ISO around what it is now, he'll be a legit valuable player. Not an all-star (probably would have been back in the day before people caught onto the value of walks), but a good starter.

[BSLChrisStoner]

12 on the year now. Small sample size of course, but he has an ISO of .141, which is up from .117 last year.

The walks are still a huge weakness and will continue to be so, but if he can maintain a .300+ AVG with an ISO around what it is now, he'll be a legit valuable player. Not an all-star (probably would have been back in the day before people caught onto the value of walks), but a good starter.

He struggled in Sept '19, but in August '19 we started to see more punch then (13 xbh's for that Month).

[Mackus]

I think there is a shot at him maintaining more XBH to beef up the previously empty BA.

Even without that he's likely fine at 2B but not someone where you think you're gaining on your competition. But if he can increase the ISO as others have mentioned then he's a bit more of an asset.

Being a guy worthy of starting somewhere at all is certainly nice.

[BSLChrisStoner]

We can talk about future later, but in-terms of pure enjoyment to watch... he's right there for me.  I hate this three true-outcome era, and enjoy watching someone that looks / plays different.  His obvious enthusiasm helps too.

[Mike B]

We can talk about future later, but in-terms of pure enjoyment to watch... he's right there for me. I hate this three true-outcome era, and enjoy watching someone that looks / plays different. His obvious enthusiasm helps too.

Agreed, Hanser is a good ball player, who plays the game right and has fun.