91 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

11 for his first 25... 2 doubles, 2 homers. 1 bb. 2 k's. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I'd extend him right now. Not sure how his normal salary progression would work with arbitration but he's at $1.6M this year.

 

Would something like 5/$25M work? Sure there is some small risk but the O's could certainly afford to lock him up and at 5 years he'd jsut be 32. 

[dude]

Why do you value him so little?

 

Why would a 1.200 OPS hitter (OPS+ 244) sign such a paltry deal at 27?

 

He'll be the first player to ever hit .440, but can't even win the batting title because Iglesias is batting .500.

 

His ARB2 number would probably be 7M at this rate and his ARB3 number would be north of 12M.  He'd be at least 15M in FA and if you had to go a 5th year, that puts us somewhere around 7/100.

 

That would still be a bargain because he'll be the best hitter in the league.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Why do you value him so little?

 

Why would a 1.200 OPS hitter (OPS+ 244) sign such a paltry deal at 27?

 

He'll be the first player to ever hit .440, but can't even win the batting title because Iglesias is batting .500.

 

His ARB2 number would probably be 7M at this rate and his ARB3 number would be north of 12M.  He'd be at least 15M in FA and if you had to go a 5th year, that puts us somewhere around 7/100.

 

That would still be a bargain because he'll be the best hitter in the league.

I don't value him so little which is why I asked about 5/25 in the first place. My real point was to just sign him. Now that said i am not sure how you got 7/100. That's 15/year which is way more than he's going to make and I don't see any need to go that far.

[JeremyStrain]

I'd extend him right now. Not sure how his normal salary progression would work with arbitration but he's at $1.6M this year.

 

Would something like 5/$25M work? Sure there is some small risk but the O's could certainly afford to lock him up and at 5 years he'd jsut be 32. 

Could probably do it for less. I dunno hard to say. A study in 2017 said the avg increase through arb is 113% So roughly, $3.25m next year maybe? Somewhere between $5-6m maybe in arb 3, and then he's a FA, so if things keep consistent, depending on his defense...I dunno what he'd get on the open market. 2B isn't a real show stopper there. Maybe something between $7-10m a year if everything breaks right?

 

But right now, he's coming off being cut repeatedly, had one good year and is trying to back that up in a shortened season. You might be able to get him to agree to something 4/5 years for $5/6m a year if you did it now? Let him bank on security vs being non tendered? There's going to be a LOT of guys NT in the coming year, especially with the uncertainty around the CBA. Market gets watered down, he gets less when he hits FA? Can't find a job?

 

ALL speculating obviously, but probably worth a shot to see.

[dude]

I don't value him so little which is why I asked about 5/25 in the first place. My real point was to just sign him. Now that said i am not sure how you got 7/100. That's 15/year which is way more than he's going to make and I don't see any need to go that far.

 

I've asked you about extending him in the past and you said you wanted to wait and see.

 

You've now seen 6 games and 27 PAs with a 1.200+ OPS and have determined that's all you need to see. 

 

Therefore, you must believe this is the type of hitter he's capable of being.

 

Right now, the Orioles would have the historically best offense of All-time.  The '27 Yankees only had 2 players north of 1.000 OPS.....the Orioles have 4 and Santander is knocking on the 1.000-door at .970.

 

Alberto and Iglesias = Ruth and Gehrig

 

This would be the best offense, of any team, EVER.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Dude you are correct that I have said previously that we cold wait and see about him. But that has been undone a lot since we don't have this year to really get that much intel for the obvious reasons.

 

Or I can say I just changed my mind. Either way I'd be fine if the O's could do something now in the 4 or 5 year range for $5 or $6M/yr.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: Orioles reset: Why Hanser Alberto is the heartbeat of their hot start

[dude]

Lindor is struggling with an OPS of .687.

 

If we trade them Alberto and Igesias we should probably get Lindor and at least one other good prospect from them.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Lindor is struggling with an OPS of .687.

If we trade them Alberto and Igesias we should probably get Lindor and at least one other good prospect from them.

How many times can you make the same joke?

[SportsGuy]

How many times can you make the same joke?

Your definition of the word joke is much different than mine.

[Mike B]

I really don't see the need to downplay Alberto.

 

He can flat out hit.

 

In his time in Baltimore he has hit .313 in 587 AB's.  That is way to big of a sample size to be a fluke.

 

His OBP is  .336, which is not great but is not awful.

 

He plays hard, seems to be one of the leaders and defensively at 2B looks to be improving.  

 

I like the guy, hopefully we do not give him away.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I'm sure it's just me, but 75% of the time I'm lost reading a dude post.

[SportsGuy]

I really don't see the need to downplay Alberto.

He can flat out hit.

In his time in Baltimore he has hit .313 in 587 AB's. That is way to big of a sample size to be a fluke.

His OBP is .336, which is not great but is not awful.

He plays hard, seems to be one of the leaders and defensively at 2B looks to be improving.

I like the guy, hopefully we do not give him away.

Well, his OBP is hit dependent.

He seems like he can hit but 587 at bats is basically one season. One season is still a SSS.

He still isn’t showing a ton of power and his BABiP is a very unsustainable 433 this year.

Still, if he can be serviceable vs righties and continue to pound lefties while playing a good defensive second base, he does provide value.

[Mike B]

Well, his OBP is hit dependent.

He seems like he can hit but 587 at bats is basically one season. One season is still a SSS.

He still isn’t showing a ton of power and his BABiP is a very unsustainable 433 this year.

Still, if he can be serviceable vs righties and continue to pound lefties while playing a good defensive second base, he does provide value.

587 AB's is plenty of time for opposition to get a book on him.  He just hits.

[russsnyder]

587 AB's is plenty of time for opposition to get a book on him. He just hits.

Alberto had 529 ABs last season. His previous high was 99 in 2015. You are correct that he just hits. He doesn't walk much, nor does he strike out that much. I think his best attribute is that he has shown a nice ability to hit to all fields. He's difficult to defend against, particularly with a shift. If nothing else, he's shown that there is a place for a good contact guy who can handle a bat in today's MLB.

[Mackus]

We know the contact will be there for Alberto, but even with that I'm not sure he can really be an asset offensively overall.

 

In the minors, he had a career 287 BA, pretty impressive, but that only led to a 709 OPS.  In AAA it's been even better, 309 BA, but that only led to a 768 OPS.  Same thing last year, 305 BA (fantastic) but a 750 OPS (average, slightly below in fact with a 98 OPS+).  30-40 years ago when we knew less about what leads to teams scoring runs, I think Alberto would have a chance to be a star with his great BA.  But unless he finds a way to walk more (increase BB%) or have more pop (increase ISO), it's just going to be a hollow batting average.

 

 

He can be a solid contributor without any improvements.  If he's gonna hit near 300 and have an OPS in the low to mid 700s, that's perfectly acceptable at 2B.  And finding a solid contributor that you got for free is certainly valuable.  And he shouldn't make much money even in his later years of arbitration.  I'm not sure I wanna pay FA rates for his years beyond that for a guy entering his 30s who if he loses any hit tool at all might be unrosterable.  But even if we do, I don't think we need to look to lock him in now.  Lot of time before we get there.  I won't regret having to pay more to keep him if he does manage to add hitting for more power to his game (I don't think the walks are possible).

[glenn__davis]

In the day of the 3-outcome player, he's enjoyable to watch.  A guy who consistently puts the ball in play and doesn't try to hit it 500 ft. on an 0-2 pitch.

 

Whether or not that adds enough value to extend or not, I'll let others figure out.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Mackus makes some good points. I'd still try and extend him now. See what it would take to lock him up for the next five years.

 

1. He hits. Maybe doesn't have the greatest OBP or OPS but he still hits.

2. He plays at least adequate defense at 2B and seems to be settling in there and playing better.

3. If you can lock him up that's one up the middle position that you are set at and can focus on other needs.

4. In this day and age I gotta think he'd still be relatively inexpensive with almost no downside.

[SportsGuy]

I just don’t get the logic behind locking him up now. What’s the hurry?

We already have him cheap and under team control for a while.