310 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I really think if we sign Trumbo that he's the DH and we deal with Kim in the LF.  I don't think they'd consider manning both corners with those guys again.  I think Trumbo at 1B and Davis in RF is more likely than Trumbo in RF.  Or at least I really want to think that.

 

It's just bookkeeping, but Trumbo is so bad in RF that his WAR probably goes up moving from RF to DH.  Positional adjustment for RF is 10 runs higher than for DH.  Trumbo's UZR/150 and his Rdrs/yr (the defensive metrics used by Fangraphs and BB-ref, respectively) were right about -10.  I'm surprised he wasn't rated even lower, frankly.

I think you are correct, if we sign Trumbo he's going to be the DH and I don't like that. Not at all and here's why. That puts Kim as the everyday LFer which isn't idea, but it also means that we are going to have some fringe player in RF.

 

Even if you put Trumbo at 1B and Davis in RF so that Kim can be the DH then you are going to have a fringe player in LF.

 

The only way it makes sense to me, if you sign Trumbo is one of the two following scenarios.

1. You go ahead and sign a quality RFer, DH Trumbo, and leave Davis at  1B. I would actually like this but doubt they would move the payroll up that much.

2. Have Trumbo be the DH. Move Davis to RF. Play Mancini at 1B and see what happens. The bottom line being that you hope Mancini brings more to the plate than a fringe OFer.

[Mackus]

I'm all aboard the Davis to RF train. 

 

I don't have much confidence that Mancini is good enough to play 1B everyday (offensively) at this point.  I actually do have some confidence that Trumbo could hack it at 1B defensively.  I would be ok with Davis in RF, Trumbo at 1B, Kim/Mancini platoon at DH, and then find the best option we can afford in LF, could even be a righty-masher that we platoon with Rickard.

[bnickle]

I'm all aboard the Davis to RF train.

I don't have much confidence that Mancini is good enough to play 1B everyday (offensively) at this point. I actually do have some confidence that Trumbo could hack it at 1B defensively. I would be ok with Davis in RF, Trumbo at 1B, Kim/Mancini platoon at DH, and then find the best option we can afford in LF, could even be a righty-masher that we platoon with Rickard.

Good luck with that.This is clearly what should happen if they resign Trumbo but it's not gonna happen

It's either gonna be Trumbo in RF and Mancini at DH with a Rule 5/AAAA/cheap vet as an extra OF. If Trumbo jets they might spend a little more either in FA or trade on a RF but not 10+ mil a year. Either way I think they've locked Kim in at LF and are close to locking Mancini in at DH

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The problem with resigning Trumbo is simple. It jacks up the payroll (which is fine) but does not improve the team over last year. Still have the same weaknesses (zero improvement).

 

So sign Trumbo if you can also go out and spend on a good corner OFer. Otherwise pass. If its a choice between a good OFer or Trumbo I'll take the OFer.

[RShack]

I can't stomach another summer of Kim and Trumbo in the OF.

 

IMO, we won't get a regular diet of both of those happening.... so, pick which one you find least objectionable...

[SportsGuy]

Orioles met with Trumbo again.

I wish I could figure out why they want to sign him so bad...I still think this has a lot to do with Nelson cruz.

[JeremyStrain]

Orioles met with Trumbo again.

I wish I could figure out why they want to sign him so bad...I still think this has a lot to do with Nelson cruz.

 

Clubhouse chemistry. Buck is a HUGE believer in the "right" guys off the field, so when he finds one he really likes he's going to fight for them, and that kind of sway coupled with the production we got out of him will make it's way upstairs.

 

Not saying that guys like MW, Kakes, or Cruz were BAD guys in there, but you can't keep ALL of them. I think that's why you see so much more pushed towards resigning guys than signing new guys

[SportsGuy]

Clubhouse chemistry. Buck is a HUGE believer in the "right" guys off the field, so when he finds one he really likes he's going to fight for them, and that kind of sway coupled with the production we got out of him will make it's way upstairs.

Not saying that guys like MW, Kakes, or Cruz were BAD guys in there, but you can't keep ALL of them. I think that's why you see so much more pushed towards resigning guys than signing new guys

Yea but it seems like everyone is great. They wanted Cruz back...they wanted Parra.

Perhaps the clubhouse is just good and we could put anyone in and it would be fine.

It's just a stupid,short sighted move.

The clubhouse was good before him and it would be fine after him.

Winning makes the clubhouse good.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Orioles met with Trumbo again.

I wish I could figure out why they want to sign him so bad...I still think this has a lot to do with Nelson cruz.

 

[JeremyStrain]

Yea but it seems like everyone is great. They wanted Cruz back...they wanted Parra.

Perhaps the clubhouse is just good and we could put anyone in and it would be fine.

It's just a stupid,short sighted move.

The clubhouse was good before him and it would be fine after him.

Winning makes the clubhouse good.

 

Generally agree. Maybe theres a few people here and there they aren't sad to see go. But just like we said after Cruz, in hindsight, we should have spent the money, it would have saved us money down the road. The problem with hindsight is you don't have the luxury at the time, so keeping the productive HR bat now could seem like a poor allocation of money, but I'd rather see that then them keep signing overpriced one year stop gaps, or trading for them.

 

We've been told we are one of the 8 smallest market teams in baseball. They've gotta stop acting like they are both, either they are going to spend, or not spend and do the small market development method. This sitting on the fence and trying to do both thing is going to keep us right where we are, just on the fringe of the playoffs and actually competing. Letting MW walk and spending that money on pitching is smart. Plucking a couple rule 5 guys and hoping one or both can contribute a bit is smart. Signing a guy like Guitierrez would be smart, low cost investment, then you take that other money and extend Manny. Hopefully between Gausman, Bundy, and Tillman it's enough to keep us in the race, and then we just need another guy or two to step up and we are right back in the playoff hunt.

 

I don't think Trumbo is a poor investment, considering what we saw him do here last year. I don't think he should be in the field at all, but if you can improve the defense and play him at DH that's a good bat to have.

[SportsGuy]

He can do one thing. He's an awful investment.

Chris Carter can do the same one thing.

4/60 for that is just horrible especially when you have so many guys that should be getting extensions.

If everyone else was signed, I would feel better about it but still thing it's a a bad use of money.

[FFH]

Generally agree. Maybe theres a few people here and there they aren't sad to see go. But just like we said after Cruz, in hindsight, we should have spent the money, it would have saved us money down the road. The problem with hindsight is you don't have the luxury at the time, so keeping the productive HR bat now could seem like a poor allocation of money, but I'd rather see that then them keep signing overpriced one year stop gaps, or trading for them.

 

We've been told we are one of the 8 smallest market teams in baseball. They've gotta stop acting like they are both, either they are going to spend, or not spend and do the small market development method. This sitting on the fence and trying to do both thing is going to keep us right where we are, just on the fringe of the playoffs and actually competing. Letting MW walk and spending that money on pitching is smart. Plucking a couple rule 5 guys and hoping one or both can contribute a bit is smart. Signing a guy like Guitierrez would be smart, low cost investment, then you take that other money and extend Manny. Hopefully between Gausman, Bundy, and Tillman it's enough to keep us in the race, and then we just need another guy or two to step up and we are right back in the playoff hunt.

 

I don't think Trumbo is a poor investment, considering what we saw him do here last year. I don't think he should be in the field at all, but if you can improve the defense and play him at DH that's a good bat to have.

 

Along with that, I think DD underestimated the positive influence that Cruz had on the other guys, and was wary of his age.

With Trumbo, you have neither of these estimations cropping up.  From day one, Trumbo has had a positive influence, and Trumbo is younger. 

The real issue here is just, as has already been said on this thread, you have to maximize your talent - and Trumbo in right doesn't do that.

[JeremyStrain]

He can do one thing. He's an awful investment.

Chris Carter can do the same one thing.

 

Carter is still more of an unknown and I think he strikes out more. Trumbo we have already seen in this park, in this league against these pitchers. Then what if you sign Carter, he has one good season and is gone again? Treading water. I'd rather err on the side of proven production than gamble at a little less money. Again, if we had signed Cruz we wouldn't be in this spot. Or if we had offered Fowler 3/40 instead of 3/33. You gotta gamble to win, but I think Trumbo is a little safer bet than Carter.

[JeremyStrain]

Along with that, I think DD underestimated the positive influence that Cruz had on the other guys, and was wary of his age.

With Trumbo, you have neither of these estimations cropping up.  From day one, Trumbo has had a positive influence, and Trumbo is younger. 

The real issue here is just, as has already been said on this thread, you have to maximize your talent - and Trumbo in right doesn't do that.

 

This is true. Trumbo in RF I like a lot less than Trumbo at DH. If you had one more everyday OF for LF, say if Kim could handle more AB, and I don't know if he could or not. Everyone wants to point to his numbers last year, but chicken or the egg it and say, does he have those numbers BECAUSE of the way he was used, or is he just going to produce those kinds of numbers? I think Buck saw a lot more than any of us did in practice and daily and he's got a good reason for using him like he does. I give him the benefit of the doubt because of how he is with his BP. Everyone knows he's one of the best in the game with using RP (let's just ignore that final inning of the WC game) but I think his strong pens come from knowing their strengths and weaknesses and playing to them. I have doubts that guys like Brach are going to go to other teams and do exactly as well. He just keeps seeming to find guys. He even got some great years out of Matusz in the pen. Let's not forget we also get a healthy O'Day back this year.

 

Sorry, lost my train of thought. So IF we had an everyday LF, then you can use the rule 5 kid, and another 4th OF type and get by in RF with better defense and Trumbo hitting bombs at DH.

[Mackus]

What seemed weird to me about Trumbo's numbers last year was that his HR%, BB%, and K% was pretty consistent month-to-month, but his BABIP varied widely, from 136 to 407.  The months where the balls that stayed in the park fell in, he had big time numbers, and the other months the SLG remained high because of the HRs, but the AVG and OBP were really bad.

 

I went back and looked, and at a glance, it looks like he's had tons of variance month-to-month throughout his career on BABIP, which is understandable since it's such a volatile number over small samples.  However, he didn't seem to show the same HR, BB, and K rate consistency as he did last year, those numbers also went up and down wildly.  If he can consistently keep hitting HRs despite whether everything else is falling in (and how many times have we heard Shack mention that article about how Trumbo thinks he's learned how to consistently launch the ball high for power since mid 2015), then the overall numbers could remain quite good and even when he's not getting singles and doubles, the power will still mean the overall production is acceptable during the lean months.  When balls are falling in, the production could be outstanding.

 

These are last year's numbers:

Split	HR%	BB%	K%	BABIP	AVG	OPS
April	6.3%	5.2%	25.0%	0.407	0.337	0.958
May	7.7%	6.8%	29.9%	0.262	0.239	0.841
June	6.6%	6.6%	24.6%	0.316	0.281	0.881
July	6.4%	8.3%	23.9%	0.239	0.230	0.784
August	9.0%	10.8%	26.1%	0.136	0.184	0.769
Sept	6.3%	8.0%	23.2%	0.300	0.272	0.874

[SportsGuy]

Carter is still more of an unknown and I think he strikes out more. Trumbo we have already seen in this park, in this league against these pitchers. Then what if you sign Carter, he has one good season and is gone again? Treading water. I'd rather err on the side of proven production than gamble at a little less money. Again, if we had signed Cruz we wouldn't be in this spot. Or if we had offered Fowler 3/40 instead of 3/33. You gotta gamble to win, but I think Trumbo is a little safer bet than Carter.

Gamble with a good player.

A lot can change in a year. I'm not worried about going year to year. Next year, our farm system could look good and we may be able to trade for someone. Our maybe another FA will be there that makes sense.

Or maybe we can do another Trumbo type deal next year.

So many factors to sign a one dimensional guy to this many years and this much money.

[Mackus]

Totally agree with Rob that I'd rather have Carter for a 1-year commitment for less money than have to commit to a 3 or 4 year gamble on Trumbo.

[Mackus]

Posted this comparison between Carter and Trumbo in the Winter Meetings thread a few days ago:

 

Numbers from last year:

	Carter	Trumbo
PA	644	667
1B+BB	129	133
2B	27	27
3B	1	1
HR	41	47
K	206	170

Carter has a 218/313/477/790 slash line in 1676 PA over the past 3 years.

Trumbo has a 253/309/477/786 slash line in 1574 PA over the past 3 years.

[Mackus]

No point to this, but I just noticed in looking up Trumbo's numbers, that he didn't have a single sacrifice fly last season.  That's pretty weird.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I think Rob has nailed it. One year for a guy is one thing but a long term contract for such a one dimensional player is a bit crazy.