597 replies to this topic

[JordanKough]

So if the #15 rushing defense shuts down the #1 rushing offense they probably win?

 

Well more like, if Elliott doesn't run two touchdowns in the 4th quarter on plays when you know he's going to run, then yes. 

 

Looking back, though, this may not seem as staunchly true.  Elliott did gain 32 and 14 on his last two carries. Before that...he was held to about 3.5 yards per carry. I guess if you hold them to FGs on both Pitt wins handily. 

 

Dak beat them with two huge passing plays to Elliott and Bryant (I didn't see either) but that seemed to weight pretty heavily in his stats. Without those 4 huge plays, Elliott rushes to the tune of 3.5 PA and Dak sees his YPA drop from basically 10 to 6.2.

 

Basically, if the Ravens can prevent the big plays here, I think this gives us a great shot given how Pitt held up against them otherwise. 

 

I seem to remember hearing a stat somewhere about the Ravens not giving up big plays, but I can't quite remember what it was or where I heard it, though I think it was during the Steelers game. 

Looking back though, this may not hold true. 

[esporter]

Just something random I wanted to toss out there, but a lot of scoffing and disbelief this week nationally that the "Ravens are in 1st place, can you believe it?"

 

Well, I know we've looked pretty bad at times, but don't forget we beat the Bills early in the year and just kicked the snot out of everyone's beloved Steelers.

 

Fuck 'em.

[Mackus]

Without those 4 huge plays?

 

Take away Pittsburgh's 4 best plays and it's a blowout, too.

[SportsGuy]

Well more like, if Elliott doesn't run two touchdowns in the 4th quarter on plays when you know he's going to run, then yes. 

 

Looking back, though, this may not seem as staunchly true.  Elliott did gain 32 and 14 on his last two carries. Before that...he was held to about 3.5 yards per carry. I guess if you hold them to FGs on both Pitt wins handily. 

 

Dak beat them with two huge passing plays to Elliott and Bryant (I didn't see either) but that seemed to weight pretty heavily in his stats. Without those 4 huge plays, Elliott rushes to the tune of 3.5 PA and Dak sees his YPA drop from basically 10 to 6.2.

 

Basically, if the Ravens can prevent the big plays here, I think this gives us a great shot given how Pitt held up against them otherwise. 

 

I seem to remember hearing a stat somewhere about the Ravens not giving up big plays, but I can't quite remember what it was or where I heard it, though I think it was during the Steelers game. 

Looking back though, this may not hold true. 

YEs, they mentioned this during the game.

[SportsGuy]

Without those 4 huge plays?

 

Take away Pittsburgh's 4 best plays and it's a blowout, too.

LOL

 

My takeaways from that game are that you can move the ball on both defenses...That I was surprised the Steelers were able to get after Prescott some, considering they haven't been a good pass rushing team this year and that Dallas did well vs Bell.

 

I think its time for people to stop overrating Pitt. That defense is terrible.

[Mike B]

LOL

 

My takeaways from that game are that you can move the ball on both defenses...That I was surprised the Steelers were able to get after Prescott some, considering they haven't been a good pass rushing team this year and that Dallas did well vs Bell.

 

I think its time for people to stop overrating Pitt. That defense is terrible.

Yea, they are a high octane offense, but that defense is not good at all.

 

Pitt has come back to us, thanks to their own 4 game losing streak.  Hope Cincy has one of those in them.

 

Our division is not what it used to be.

[JordanKough]

Without those 4 huge plays?

 

Take away Pittsburgh's 4 best plays and it's a blowout, too.

 

Bah...cherry picking for rep is fun!!! Yes, taking away the 4 best plays from a team would certainly swing a game, in this drastically. trying to use this a commentary on the Pitt game itself, but use it more as analysis for the Ravens game and where strengths for the Ravens could be when we match up with Dallas.

 

I was more saying, the Ravens are particularly good at preventing those kinds of plays and being consistent in their passing and run defense to slow teams down. Make them beat them for a full 75-yards on drives. 

 

If we do something that Pitt couldn't do, but we have done all year, perhaps it gives us a chance to win. I'm trying to point out things that Pitt didn't do, that it's very possible we COULD do, and show why the Ravens could win. But hey...MACGIFs are fun. I get it. 

[SportsGuy]

Yea, they are a high octane offense, but that defense is not good at all.

 

Pitt has come back to us, thanks to their own 4 game losing streak.  Hope Cincy has one of those in them.

 

Our division is not what it used to be.

You can thank the salary cap for that.  A big reason our division was so good is because there was a ton of talent in it.  The 3 teams drafted and developed well.  Well, you lose those guys and if you lose on guys and happen to miss on a few picks, you fall back some..especially since none of them do much in free agency.

 

Look at the divisions doing well right now...The AFC South and NFC East.  They have been shitty in recent years, so those teams got higher picks, had some money to spend because they drafted like shit and didn't keep anyone and now, they are right there.  Its what happens in this era of football.

[JordanKough]

You can thank the salary cap for that.  A big reason our division was so good is because there was a ton of talent in it.  The 3 teams drafted and developed well.  Well, you lose those guys and if you lose on guys and happen to miss on a few picks, you fall back some..especially since none of them do much in free agency.

 

Look at the divisions doing well right now...The AFC South and NFC East.  They have been shitty in recent years, so those teams got higher picks, had some money to spend because they drafted like shit and didn't keep anyone and now, they are right there.  Its what happens in this era of football.

 

THIS is what's ruining football right now. They've got to find a way for teams to keep talent they draft, IMO. 

[You Play to Win the Game]

How am I overrating it?

 

All I have done is provide FACTUAL evidence that shows the defense is very good.

 

So tell me, where am I overrating it and what is bad about it?  

 

Are the stats overrating it?  DVOA overrating it?

 

What aspect of the defense isn't good?

I think the rush D is top notch... the pass rush is below average and the pass defense is still below average. On that last point, we haven't played anyone, and the QB's we have faced that are competent have been effective. If we contain Zeke and force Prescott to make plays that is our best chance on Sunday. But I just don't see a defense in the Ravens that anyone fears. I know DVOA is supposed to account for opponents... but maybe it just doesn't do a great job at that. 

[JordanKough]

Wait, what? We haven't played anyone? We've played two of the top 5 statistical passing offenses in Washington and Pitt. Oakland is 7th. The Giants are 9th. Jacksonville is 13th. That's not quite nobody.

 

Our sack rate is definitely lower than you'd like with only 18, but we do have 11 INTs on the year and it could easily be more. 

 

I'm not sure I'd call us below average in pass defense. I wouldn't call us elite, but I'd call us somewhere between above average and very good. 

[SportsGuy]

I think the rush D is top notch... the pass rush is below average and the pass defense is still below average. On that last point, we haven't played anyone, and the QB's we have faced that are competent have been effective. If we contain Zeke and force Prescott to make plays that is our best chance on Sunday. But I just don't see a defense in the Ravens that anyone fears. I know DVOA is supposed to account for opponents... but maybe it just doesn't do a great job at that. 

The pass rush isn't below average.,..Its not much more than average though.

 

Saying the pass defense is BELOW average is a joke.  First of all, they have legit players in the secondary.  Its not like its being done with smoke and mirrors.

 

Secondly, you are either uneducated about who the team has played or are just thinking of last year's team still.  The Ravens have played 4 of the top 10 passing offenses and 5 of the top 13 (in terms of passing yards per game).  Of those 5 teams, 3 would be in the playoffs today and Pitt is right in the mix.  The only one of those teams that did much at all vs us in the passing game was the Giants and they did nothing until Smith went out with concussion.  They have certainly faced shitty QBs but that's half the league.  

 

ODB had a monster game vs the Ravens but again, it didn't happen until Smith went out.  Only 2 other WR have 100 yard games vs the Ravens this year.  One was Corey Coleman, which was before Young was inserted.  Coleman abused Wright.  The other was Eli Rogers last week...and most of that came in garbage time.

 

Crabtree had the 3 TDs, again mostly on Wright but they shut down Cooper.  

 

I see no evidence that the pass D is below average.  Someone really needs to point that out to me.  Besides injuries, the biggest issue in the secondary has been communication and that's why they brought Weddle in. Its no doubt better.

 

Now, are they a top 5 pass defense?   I am not so sure about that but to say they are below average is completely false.  

[You Play to Win the Game]

No way am I willing to concede this is an above average pass defense unit. I can concede that they're average though. Looking around the league, teams really don't defend the pass well at all, so maybe I'm off on that.

 

And Pitt was coming off injuries... Oakland beat us, as did the Giants (look what ODB did, although JS went out early).

[You Play to Win the Game]

Wait, what? We haven't played anyone? We've played two of the top 5 statistical passing offenses in Washington and Pitt. Oakland is 7th. The Giants are 9th. Jacksonville is 13th. That's not quite nobody.

 

Our sack rate is definitely lower than you'd like with only 18, but we do have 11 INTs on the year and it could easily be more. 

 

I'm not sure I'd call us below average in pass defense. I wouldn't call us elite, but I'd call us somewhere between above average and very good. 

Pretty interesting too because we lost to Washington, Oakland and New York... should have lost vs. Jacksonville. Still not sure what happened last week, other than Ben not being right.

[Mackus]

I think we're very thin in the secondary.  If Smith and now Young are both healthy, then the pass defense as a whole is fine.  If either gets banged up, then we're in big trouble because the depth is non-existent.

 

I think we can hold the Dallas offense to an acceptable point total.  I just don't think it's likely we do much damage against them offensively.  We'll either need to be very efficient in the red zone or get an unexpected score on a homerun or via the ST or defense to put up something more than in the teens.

[SportsGuy]

Derek Carr threw for less than 200 yards.  Everything was short.  He averaged just 5,7 yards per attempt.  Now, he was accurate, had the 4 TDs and didn't throw a pick.  He gets credit for that but again, a lot of that was on Wright and it was most short quick passes and the Ravens kept everyone in front of them. 

 

His ratings were excellent in that game.

 

The one thing I will say about the pass defense is that QBs are completing 63.3% of their passes, which is only 17th in the league.  That speaks to some of the issues Wright had early but also teams getting the ball off quickly.  And that goes to them having the 8th best yards per attempt against them.  However, they have the 9th best passer rating against them as well.

 

So, teams are doing short quick passes which is allowing teams to complete a high % of those passes but they aren't getting yardage out of it and the Ravens have limited the big plays against them in a big way.

[JordanKough]

Pretty interesting too because we lost to Washington, Oakland and New York... should have lost vs. Jacksonville. Still not sure what happened last week, other than Ben not being right.

 

Pretty interesting that Oakland scored a TD from the 6 yard line on one play after a 47 yard return, or Flacco giving htem the ball after a Fumble inside the Ravens 30.  

 

Or that the Redskins returned a TD during that game. And that we lost both games by less than a score. And that they didn't score an actual offensive TD against us other than that...

 

But sure the passing defense lost us those games. Whatever you say. 

[SportsGuy]

I think we're very thin in the secondary.  If Smith and now Young are both healthy, then the pass defense as a whole is fine.  If either gets banged up, then we're in big trouble because the depth is non-existent.

 

I think we can hold the Dallas offense to an acceptable point total.  I just don't think it's likely we do much damage against them offensively.  We'll either need to be very efficient in the red zone or get an unexpected score on a homerun or via the ST or defense to put up something more than in the teens.

Powers is good too.  I do agree it gets shaky after that though.  See if Wright can contribute in a reduced role as well.

 

But I am not sure how many more teams can go deeper than that with guys they are comfortable with.

 

Also, we need to see if Elam can give us anything.  He was good in the preseason.  If he can provide some value, that would be a big plus.

[JordanKough]

Derek Carr threw for less than 200 yards.  Everything was short.  He averaged just 5,7 yards per attempt.  Now, he was accurate, had the 4 TDs and didn't throw a pick.  He gets credit for that but again, a lot of that was on Wright and it was most short quick passes and the Ravens kept everyone in front of them. 

 

His ratings were excellent in that game.

 

The one thing I will say about the pass defense is that QBs are completing 63.3% of their passes, which is only 17th in the league.  That speaks to some of the issues Wright had early but also teams getting the ball off quickly.  And that goes to them having the 8th best yards per attempt against them.  However, they have the 9th best passer rating against them as well.

 

So, teams are doing short quick passes which is allowing teams to complete a high % of those passes but they aren't getting yardage out of it and the Ravens have limited the big plays against them in a big way.

 

It's the lack of pass rush. I think teams still get way too many clean looks because we don't generate enough pressure,

 

It's also the style of defense we play. We play a lot of zone and keep things in front of us at times. 

[JordanKough]

But I am not sure how many more teams can go deeper than that with guys they are comfortable with.

 

It's mostly this...to me. It'd be like saying well the Giants passing game isn't that good because of Beckham gets hurt there's no real depth there. 

 

If Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman got hurt the secondary in Seattle wouldn't be as good either.