100 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Halftime and looks like what most thought. Just a really close match.

 

Possession just about even. Wales with a slight 53-47 advantage.

Portugal with 4 shots to Wales with 1 but Wales one shot was right on target.

Even on corners.

 

Each team with a good chance but Wales with the best. In the 23rd minute Bales took the ball just outside his own 18. Sprinted the length of  the field and beat two defenders to free himself for a shot just outside the Portugal 18. He hit it with pace but straight at the keeper. Portugal's best chance came in the 43rd minute. A cross from the left outside the area headed toward the far post. Ronaldo got a head on it but put it wide and high. Just didn't get quite enough height to get above the ball.  All in all a pretty entertaining half of soccer.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Well it didn't take long in the second half. 50th minute and Portugal earned a corner. Took a short corner then cross toward the back post. This time Ronaldo was not marked tightly and he got the height he needed to get above the ball. Drilled a header into the net.

 

1-0 Portugal

[BSLSteveBirrer]

....and the wheels fall off for Wales. 53 minute Portugal gets a cross into the box. Sanches heads it back just outside the 18 to Ronaldo. Cristiano slides a shot toward the back post and Nani redirects it toward the near post. Keeper with no chance.

 

2-0 Portugal. Sorry Wales fans its game over. So much for my prediction but as I said before the tournament - Ronaldo is the man!

[BSLSteveBirrer]

....and Portugal is through to the final. Now on to tomorrows second semi. Germany against the host France.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Todays semi final #2 with hosts France taking on Germany. Some interesting tid bits about todays matchup.

 

1. France is unbeaten at home in its last 17 major tournament games with 15 wins and 2 draws. Their last loss at home was way back in 1960 in the first Euro Championship.

2. But Germany has not lost to France in a major tournament since 1958. Since then they have met three times with the last being in 2014.

3. Germany is going to be missing Hummels, Khaderia, and Gomez.

4. France isn't missing anybody.

5. Germany has looked potent on defense. France has looked potent on attack. Missing Hummels gives France's Greizmann more room. That could be a problem for Germany.

 

The odds makers have this game at almost a total pick em with some betting houses giving slightly more odds in favor of France being at home.

 

I know I sound like a broken record but in an even pick em match go with the keeper. Neuer is the best in the world and its not really close.

 

Germany moves on.

[Don Quixote]

So...how about the penalty, Steve?

[NewMarketSean]

I don't watch much soccer but I was pulling for France. Crazy series of events there to end the half. Germany was in control for most of it.

[Dupin]

Die Mannschaft is still one of the best teams in the world. I'm always pulling for them.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

First five minutes was all France had. The next 41 minutes were all Germany. Then disaster.

 

The good news for France is that they are leading 1-0. The bad news is that I don't see how they can keep a clean sheet. The Germans continually have gotten their wings or outside backs behind the French defense. Sooner or later one of those crosses is going to find the right head or foot. In fact they had a great opportunity just outside the 6 and dead center of the field but Schweinsteiger made a nice trap but couldn't put his foot on the ball.

 

Then ....Schweinsteiger defends tightly on a corner but gets his hand up too high and gives up the penalty. My initial reaction was much too tight a call for this level. After watching the replays several times I softened a bit. But that is still a pretty weak infraction for a penalty. Especially after a French defender backed over a German on a corner just several minutes before. I don't think that should have been a penalty but now it seems a bit inconsistent.  But now they just showed a replay from directly in front of the two players. Schweinsteiger does have his hand too high and he leads with it. So I am ok with the call. Still tight but technically correct.

 

So here is how I see the second half. Germany needs to NOT panic or change much. Keep pressing and playing wide behind the French fullbacks. It will pay off. For France, here's some advice. You better come out and play much better than you did for all but 6 minutes of the first half or you will lose. One other piece of advice. Giroud - if you get a clean break then you need to do a helluva lot better than letting Howedes track back and make a great tackle and you don't even get a shot off.

 

Germany comes back and wins 2-1.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Ref doing a really good job but he got fooled in the 69th minutes. French defender pulled Muller on top of him and drew the foul. Should have been a no call or even a penalty. So hard to see real time with all those bodies in there.

 

Germany pressing and France absorbing but I still think the Germans are going to score. Super Mario subbed in and we know the magic he has a knack for pulling off.

[Don Quixote]

Sloppy play in the box from Germany. Disastrous.

[NewMarketSean]

   

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Well game. France's super kid scores another goal. Very unlike Germany in the back. Let the French dribble around the box and they were very lackadasical to get back or mark. SMH

 

Go Ronaldo!!!!

[Markus]

I am going with Wales winning 2-1.

 

Germany moves on.

 

Well, we know that whoever you pick to win, the other team is pretty much the:

 

 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Markus two things.

 

1. This is why football (both of them) is such a difficult sport come tournament time (or playoffs). So much variance that a one off match is so difficult to predict. Case in point today. Its hard to argue that France was the better team. Afterall they won. But if these same two teams play ten times I don't think France wins half of them even played at home.

 

2. Never ever ever bet on any prediction I make.....lol

[Markus]

OH, it was all in good fun. I really enjoy all of your soccer write-ups.

[NewMarketSean]

Hung out with a friend who is from Germany last night, he was wearing his Schweinsteiger jersey. I hadn't seen him in a while...it probably wasn't the best night to hang with him, he seemed really bummed out. He was really pissed at the non-penalty calls on Germany. He talked to his father-in-law who equated losing to France as losing to the Cleveland Browns. Ouch.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Sean, in my bias opinion, soccer is the most difficult sport to officiate. The combination of speed of play, number of players, size of the area, and the number of officials just makes it so tough. Then add in that its such a low scoring affair that a single missed call can easily influence the outcome of the game.

 

Yesterday was case in point. If the ref called the foul in the box on the France player for pulling down the striker it goes 1-0 Germany. If he lets the hand ball go (which many would) its still 0-0.  In either case who knows how the rest of the match goes The dynamics of the play change so much. Not faulting the ref. I think, in hindsight and in getting to watch numerous replays, that he actually was correct to let the France "foul" go and to call the German hand ball. But I can easily see how other refs would view them differently.

 

Soccer is just going to have to go to some limited use of replay. There are ways to do it I think that will minimize the disruption of the flow while still allowing the correct call to get made.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Final Match: France - Portugal

 

One of the things I got drilled into me during my working career was on how to make an effective presentation. I don't know if I ever got it right or not (that's opinion) but I do know I gave or prepared a butt load of them (many hundreds) and to some pretty high level folks (congressional staffers, MIT Deans, and other worldly characters way above my league). And that thing was give your audience the answer in the first minute. Then give them your presentation detailing how you arrived at the answer. And finish up with repeating the answer. So here goes.

 

As much as it pains me to say this, France wins Euro 2106. (OK now you can all run out and place your money on Portugal.....lol)

 

1. France is playing at home. This is a huge advantage. The crowd will be insanely pro French and that puts a lot of pressure on the Referee. While anybody who gets a game of this magnitude is the cream of the cream, they are still human and they can get influenced by the crowd.

2. France has not lost to Portugal in their last 10 competitive matches. I don't know if there is a good explanation for this or not. Sometimes certain teams in sports just give a team all kinds of problems.

3. France won Euro 1984 and World Cup 1998 on French soil.

4. Greizmann might be playing even better than Ronaldo right now. And he is fast and will give the Portugal center backs fits.

5. The French team appears to be peaking at the right time.

 

Now here is how Portugal can win:

1. Cristiano Ronaldo is the best or second best player on the planet. As great as Greizmann is there are things he can't (at least yet) do at the level of CR7.

2. France can be beaten wide. I said this before the Germany game and the Germans manhandled the outside backs. Beat them time after time but even when the crosses were good they just couldn't finish them. If CR7 and/or Nani can get up high then France could be in trouble. CR7 and Nani scored 6 of the 8 goals scored so far by Portugal and they assisted on the other two.

3. Pepe fully trained today. IF he can play and IF he is near 100% then look for him to man mark Greizmann or Giroud in the final third depending on the attack at the moment.

4. Portugal has never won a major tournament. They are highly motivated and playing the best overall team game.

 

But in the end, I think France wins 2-1.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Well 24th minute and unfortunately France is not a prohibitive favorite. Controlling the match a bit anyway but CR7 is out with a knee injury. He tried twice to make a go of it but he has no strength so he pulled himself. Such a shame the one of the two best players on earth is now out.

 

Two pretty hard challenges on him too. Going to have to go back and watch but neither called a foul??