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Fantasy Football 2015 / Start or Sit


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#81 Mike in STL

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Posted 25 August 2015 - 03:22 PM

QB by committee.

 

I was just running some numbers. In one of my leagues, 12 teams, the first 12 QBs off the board in 2014 were: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Nick Foles.

 

At the end of the year,  according to NFL.com standard scoring, Rodgers was the scoring leader with 354. seven of those 12 finished in the top ten among QBs in scoring. Romo, Newton, Cutler, Rivers, and Foles did not. 

 

The next two QBs taken, backup QBs on fantasy rosters, were Ben Roethlisberger, and Joe Flacco. Roethlisberger, ended up finishing 5th in QB scoring. Flacco, 13th. 

 

If you went the committee approach with Roethlisberger and Flacco, and plug and played, and made the right choice each week, you would have scored 358 points. Four more than the guy who takes Rodgers. The guy who took Rodgers then misses out on elite RBs, or Gronk/Graham in the draft. 

 

Worst case scenario, you make the wrong choice each week, and you score 231 points from the QB spot, 17th best. Not great, better than Andy Dalton, just a shade under Cam Newton who was drafted as a teams #1 guy. 

 

The actual total with smart guys like us probably lies somewhere in the middle of 231-358, the mid point being 294.5. That is good enough for 7th best scoring from the QB position. middle of the road in a 12 team league. 

 

Also of note, 8 weeks, half of the year, Flacco or Roethlisberger outscored Rodgers. 

 

What this tells me is if you don't get Rodgers, Manning, Brees, or Luck, might as well not even bother taking Rivers, Ryan, Romo, etc.... and counting on them as your QB1 every week, since you can easily match the production of the tier 2 guys with a committee approach. 

 

The big question is, who is this years Roethlisberger, a guy who will go in the middle of drafts that will put up big points, and you can pair with unsexy Flacco who you know exactly what you're going to get. 

 

My vote for this years Big Ben is Eli Manning. Beckham, Cruz, and they added James Jones. Donnell showed breakout potential as a TE, the experts feel he has the best receiving corp he has ever had, and has an OK enough line in front of him. 

 

Rivers, Eli Manning, and Flacco are going 13th, 14th, 15th among QBs in NFL.com mock drafts. I think pairing Eli with either of those two and playing the matchups could pay off big if you wait until you fill the rest of your starting roster before drafting a QB, round seven or eight. 


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#82 Mackus

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Posted 25 August 2015 - 03:34 PM

The big question is, who is this years Roethlisberger, a guy who will go in the middle of drafts that will put up big points, and you can pair with unsexy Flacco who you know exactly what you're going to get.

 

That is the key.  Your example isn't as much about intelligently pairing two clear backup QBs, it's about finding a guy slated to be in the 12-18 range that has a big year and finishes in the 5-8 range.  In essence you're getting a 5th or 6th round QB in the 10th-12th rounds or wherever.

 

I wonder how your numbers would look if you didn't take a breakout guy, and instead paired two pretty obvious QB2's.  Romo, Griffin, Wilson, Kaepernick, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Dalton, Palmer, Tannehill, and McCown were rated #11-20 on the first pre-2014 ranking I could find in google (from one of Yahoo's experts).  Depending on which two of those guys you pick, you could have had wildly different results, anywhere from combined top-5 productivity to not even top-20.  So, like everything, it's not about the strategy, it's about picking the right guys who meet the criteria you're looking for.  Because of a group of 5-6 guys that look identical there will be wildly different results.



#83 Mike in STL

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Posted 25 August 2015 - 03:39 PM

That is the key.  Your example isn't as much about intelligently pairing two clear backup QBs, it's about finding a guy slated to be in the 12-18 range that has a big year and finishes in the 5-8 range.  In essence you're getting a 5th or 6th round QB in the 10th-12th rounds or wherever.
 
I wonder how your numbers would look if you didn't take a breakout guy, and instead paired two pretty obvious QB2's.  Romo, Griffin, Wilson, Kaepernick, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Dalton, Palmer, Tannehill, and McCown were rated #11-20 on the first pre-2014 ranking I could find in google (from one of Yahoo's experts).  Depending on which two of those guys you pick, you could have had wildly different results, anywhere from combined top-5 productivity to not even top-20.  So, like everything, it's not about the strategy, it's about picking the right guys who meet the criteria you're looking for.  Because of a group of 5-6 guys that look identical there will be wildly different results.



Ill check it out with lets say Rivers and Tannehill. Rivers was the last QB taken for the starters, so if I went back and purposely didnt draft Romo, someone else probably does, and Rivers falls. Tannehill well at the back end.

Stay tuned.
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#84 Chris B

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Posted 25 August 2015 - 03:43 PM

I like Tannehill a lot this year.



#85 NewMarketSean

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Posted 25 August 2015 - 03:47 PM

Yeah I am going to try to grab Roethlisberger early...he always seems to be undervalued in our league and if not him, Tannehill.

 

I don't have a lot of salary to play with so I am going to try to grab them fast before they get overbid.


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#86 Mike in STL

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Posted 25 August 2015 - 04:07 PM

So last year, the committee approach with Rivers and Tannehill would have scored 355 points if you made the right choice every week. One more point than Rodgers. 

 

If you picked wrong every week, you score 221, (Rivers had a nasty -2 in there one game). 

 

If you are smart and pick the right matchup more often than not, You score at least 287. And just like in the Ben/Flacco example, 287 is good for 7th most points for the QB spot last year. 

 

I'll look up now what it's like if you go with some worse options. Like Cutler and Kaepernick. Although I wonder if you wait even later and end up with some third tier guys if you would want three to choose from. Lets say like Cutler, Kaepenick, Dalton.


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#87 McNulty

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Posted 25 August 2015 - 04:45 PM

It's Sam Bradford. That offense made Nick Foles great.

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#88 Mike in STL

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Posted 25 August 2015 - 05:21 PM

So I did another test with Cutler, Dalton, Kaepernick. Thinking that the worse you go down the list, the more options you want in order to find a favorable matchup. 

 

If you picked the right matchup every week you would score 305. 49 less than Rodgers, and good for 6th among QB scoring.

 

If you picked the middle guy of the three every week, you would score 253. Good for 15th. Not good in a 12 team league. 

 

If you picked the worst guy each week you would score 188. Right there with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Derek Carr.

 

But, being smart people, you probably eliminate one matchup right off the bat each week. Then if you are right on the remaining two half the time, you score 279, ranking 8th among QB scoring. 

 

Clearly the further down you go, the worse off you are getting no matter how many options. So on draft day, I would say the key is to get two solid guys in the mid rounds (Ben, Eli, Rivers, Tannehill, Joe). Rather than wait too long and end up taking some duds (Cutler, Dalton, Kaep, Stafford). Don't bother with fliers (Mariota, Winston, Carr, Bortles). I'd say any combo of Eli, Rivers, Flacco, Tannehill with back to back picks in say round 7 and 8, 8 and 9, should be good. (Expect Ben to go earlier based on last year). 

 

Committee pros:

Get more elite talent at other positions early in the draft.

Not married to one guy by name alone, even if a few matchups don't favor him.

Injury insurance, if one goes down, your other should be solid enough.

 

Committee cons:

Drafting the right two QBs

Picking the right matchup more often than not.

Takes up an extra bench spot, not ideal if you have shallow bench (but with elite talent elsewhere by waiting on your QBs, you might not need a deep bench). 

 

Drafting elite pros:

Pretty good chance your guy finishes top 5 in scoring.

Outside chance your guys has ridiculous numbers (5500 yards, 55 TDs in todays game)

Set it and forget it, no second guessing.

 

Drafting elite cons:

If he gets injured, you scour the waiver wire for scraps (Carr, Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith if you're lucky), could ruin your season.

You would never bench him, even if the conditions aren't ideal (Peyton Manning in Cincy last year, 4 INTs in Fantasy playoffs)

Missing out on elite talent at shallower positions early in the draft.


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#89 Biggsy

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Posted 26 August 2015 - 09:59 AM

Drafting in a keeper league tonight, Lacy and Bell are gone. Deciding between. Charles or Peterson. It's half a point per reception. Any thoughts?

#90 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 26 August 2015 - 11:26 AM

AP is #1 on my overall board so, yea, AP.


There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

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#91 NewMarketSean

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Posted 30 August 2015 - 06:20 PM

What defense week 1? KC at Hou or Cin at Oak?
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#92 Chris B

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Posted 30 August 2015 - 06:52 PM

I'd pick KC.

#93 Mike in STL

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Posted 30 August 2015 - 09:50 PM

Had all three of my drafts today. My last of the three I absolutely hate. I mean, Miller, Anderson, My QBs, are about the least sexiest guys I could pick.

Tannehill/Flacco committee
L. Miller
C.J. Anderson
A. Brown
M. Evans
O. Daniels
B. Cooks (Flex)

First draft I like

A. Rodgers
A. Abdullah
C. Ivory
Megatron
M. Evans
O. Daniels
K. Allen (Flex)

Second draft I like. At least Ive cornered the TE market if I need a trade to upgrade at RB.

D. Brees
J. Stewart
C. Ivory
A. Brown
V. Jackson
Gronk
J. Graham (Flex)

I didnt have a single pick in the top six to land one of the elite RBs (AP Bell or Charles) So, Im putting a lot of stock in Ivory being a bell cow while a lot of the league is going by committee. And a lot of stock in Peyton continuing to hook up TEs in the red zone. In all drafts I went heavy on RB depth on my benches.
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#94 Mackus

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Posted 30 August 2015 - 10:24 PM

Just finished my keeper auction. Had a lot of budget and good keepers (A. Brown, D. Bryant, O. Beckham, and J. Randle). Took an aggressive strategy and bought the top two players in the draft, A. Rodgers and L. McCoy. Didn't have much budget left over, so my depth is non-existent.

QB: Rodgers
WR: Brown, Bryant, Beckham, M. Bryant, T. Smith, K. White (likely to IR)
RB: McCoy, Randle, L. Taliaferro, D. Williams
TE: J.Thomas, Z. Ertz

RB could be an issue. I like both McCoy and Randle, and I don't need a ton from either, but that's my biggest vulnerability.

#95 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 30 August 2015 - 10:25 PM

Trade a WR for an elite Rb and the title is yours.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#96 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 30 August 2015 - 10:25 PM

Btw funny enough in my most recent t draft my two TEs are Thomas and Ertz.
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There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#97 Mackus

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Posted 30 August 2015 - 10:29 PM

I wanted Olsen for his ridiculous dependability, but someone else did too, he went for $20 after I'd already spent on my big investments. I got Thomas for $13 and Ertz for $2.

Definitely gonna start thinking about how to land another RB. Dez may be the best one to shop, he's more expensive to keep than Brown or Beckham.

#98 Mike in STL

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Posted 30 August 2015 - 10:33 PM

Just finished my keeper auction. Had a lot of budget and good keepers (A. Brown, D. Bryant, O. Beckham, and J. Randle). Took an aggressive strategy and bought the top two players in the draft, A. Rodgers and L. McCoy. Didn't have much budget left over, so my depth is non-existent.

QB: Rodgers
WR: Brown, Bryant, Beckham, M. Bryant, T. Smith, K. White (likely to IR)
RB: McCoy, Randle, L. Taliaferro, D. Williams
TE: J.Thomas, Z. Ertz

RB could be an issue. I like both McCoy and Randle, and I don't need a ton from either, but that's my biggest vulnerability.



With those 3 WRs and Rodgers, thats enough points a week to punt RB and still win. Besides, McCoy is solid, you know DMC will get hurt making Randle to bell cow in Dallas. Can roll the dice and start Williams the first two weeks with Bell's suspension. If those guys stay healthy you should have no problem winning a title.
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#99 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 30 August 2015 - 10:39 PM

Did 3 drafts in 4 days. As I suspected, top tier Rbs flew off the board. In each draft, teams were able to snag upper echelon QBs and WRs in the middle rounds. In two of the drafts I went RB/WR. Wish I had done RB/RB.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#100 Bmore Irish

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Posted 31 August 2015 - 08:33 AM

10 team, standard scoring (except Pass TDs are 6). I drafted 8th.
Start: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K

Side Note: This league drafts a little differently. You have to draft a set number of each position (e.g. 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 D/ST, 2 K).

QB: Tony Romo, Cam Newton
RB: LeVeon Bell (keeper), Alfred Morris, LeGarrette Blount, Giovani Bernard
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr, Sammy Watkins, Michael Floyd, Roddy White
TE: Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker
D/ST: Ravens, Patriots
K: Dan Carpenter, Matt Prater


12 team, standard scoring. I picked 4th:

QB: Andrew Luck
RB: LeVeon Bell, Alfred Morris, LeGarrette Blount, Lorenzo Taliaferro, David Cobb
WR: Amari Cooper, Vincent Jackson, Nelson Agholor, Roddy White, Martavis Bryant, Breshad Perriman, Marvin Jones
TE: Jordan Cameron
D/ST: Ravens
K: Matt Prater


I went a little heavy on the suspended players this weekend.




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