154 replies to this topic

[DanMoroz]

There's already been some of discussion over the years about whether the Orioles should have traded Jake Arrieta away, as well as if he could have gotten to the level he's reached as a Cub in Baltimore. Every great start he has is a little bitter-sweet, as Jake pitching that way for the O's could have been a real difference-maker in the AL East race this year.

 

http://baltimorespor...ta-orioles-ace/

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think the obvious current correlation is Gausman.   A young power arm that is under team control. A guy that clearly has a lot of ability, and who has yet to put it all together.

 

If you move Gausman, I sure hope it is as part of a deal that brings back a difference making talent that is under contract for awhile. 

 

Giving up Arrieta's potential for what they did, is the worst moment of DD's time at the helm imo.

[Matt_P]

Giving up Arrieta's potential for what they did, is the worst moment of DD's time at the helm imo.

 

Completely unfair. Arrieta had spent four years and pitched 350 innings in the majors. He was out of options, had a terrible ERA and couldn't get guys out in the clutch. His value was pretty much null and there are only so many chances you can give a guy like that. For a team that wanted to win, it's fair to say that he was out of them.

 

The best case scenario is that he would have been converted into a reliever like Britton. Had he turned into a star closer then he would have had value but he wouldn't be seen as this good.

 

This shouldn't go on DD. This goes on the Orioles pitcher development. And everyone in that department needs to be fired.

[JordanKough]

Curiously, if we assume Arrieta's upside would become what Britton is now in the 'pen, is that a bad move at the deadline? What if he has a career average SP profile for the next 8 years (very Feldman-esque)? I think with those two being the options, it's not a terrible move at the time. 

 

It was really really hard to see how Arrieta would ever become what he did...even his FIP in the 2nd half of the year with the Cubs was 4.94. It's obvious that Cubs development team got it right and we got it wrong and that we tried everything that we thought would work. To blame that on DD, I agree, seems misguided. 

 

Also, do we think Arrieta turns into that pitcher everywhere? Or are there a limited number of teams and front offices that we would have expected would have created this result. 

[NewMarketSean]

We struggle at developing pitchers -- or any player for that matter.

 

That Arrieta turned it on as soon as he arrived in Chicago should speak volumes.

[Matt_P]

Curiously, if we assume Arrieta's upside would become what Britton is now in the 'pen, is that a bad move at the deadline? What if he has a career average SP profile for the next 8 years (very Feldman-esque)? I think with those two being the options, it's not a terrible move at the time.

 

That's an awfully optimistic view of Arrieta's upside. How many relievers actually become elite for a few years? I don't think you could expect him to be that good. 
 

Also, do we think Arrieta turns into that pitcher everywhere? Or are there a limited number of teams and front offices that we would have expected would have created this result.

 

That's an interesting question. But first you have Arrieta. Wada is doing decent in Chicago also. E-Rod is showing promise in Boston. Tillman is doing well in Baltimore but took years of development. Britton is doing well now that he's ditched his fastball. Gausman has been jerked around.

 

Our development team seems to be worse than average.

[JordanKough]

That Arrieta turned it on as soon as he arrived in Chicago should speak volumes.

 

I mean to a degree this isn't true. He wasn't good in the 2nd half of that year. They clearly went to film and broke down his numbers and spent the summer reworking his approach and rebuilding him. 

 

Although it looked like a light switch just got turned on, I think that's a really over simplistic way of putting it. Otherwise, wouldn't teams be scrambling to add all failed Orioles prospects knowing they could just bring them over and turn them into studs?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Completely unfair. Arrieta had spent four years and pitched 350 innings in the majors. He was out of options, had a terrible ERA and couldn't get guys out in the clutch. His value was pretty much null and there are only so many chances you can give a guy like that. For a team that wanted to win, it's fair to say that he was out of them.

 

The best case scenario is that he would have been converted into a reliever like Britton. Had he turned into a star closer then he would have had value but he wouldn't be seen as this good.

 

This shouldn't go on DD. This goes on the Orioles pitcher development. And everyone in that department needs to be fired.

 

Meh.  They traded Arrieta's obvious potential for Scott Freaking Feldman.  Feldman was never going to be more than a back end starter, and preferably a reliever. A rental.

It doesn't matter if Arrieta had gone to the Cubs and completely flamed out...  his potential and ceiling still existed. It would have still existed as an Oriole. He was cheap. You controlled his contract. The talent  was there. You keep that arm on the roster somehow... and if you do move him, you move as part of a package for a better piece... and you certainly don't move him when his value is at a low.

[JordanKough]

That's an interesting question. But first you have Arrieta. Wada is doing decent in Chicago also. E-Rod is showing promise in Boston. Tillman is doing well in Baltimore but took years of development. Britton is doing well now that he's ditched his fastball. Gausman has been jerked around.

 

This sample seems quite tiny to me in general. I don't disagree with the narrative, but I don't think there's anything you can take away from this right now that's all that informative. Wada you can't really put "development" blame on the O's. EdRod has looked flat out awful since his first two starts. And while they've yo yo'd Gausman, the book on him is still far from being written. Britton very well could have been this good as a starter if not for his shoulder injury and had a very very good little run there before it popped up. 

 

I agree with the narrative that we aren't great a developing pitching, but I think generally it's more anecdotal in assessment than evidence based.

Further, in a league where picking the right guy in the first place, development, injuries, etc. all go into how a player develops, I'd say back when we had Arrieta we were bad or unlucky.

 

But I think there are probably at least 10-15 teams that Arrieta goes to and produces the exact same results. 

[JordanKough]

Meh.  They traded Arrieta's obvious potential for Scott Freaking Feldman.  Feldman was never going to be more than a back end starter, and preferably a reliever. A rental.

It doesn't matter if Arrieta had gone to the Cubs and completely flamed out...  his potential and ceiling still existed. It would have still existed as an Oriole. He was cheap. You controlled his contract. The talent  was there. You keep that arm on the roster somehow... and if you do move him, you move as part of a better piece... and you certainly don't move him when his value is at a low.

 

I think this undervalues his roster spot and our desire to compete at the time. I'd guess the calculus was more like, we might as well get something for a guy that we'll waive and will likely get claimed. 

 

But I'm not sure if I'm remembering that right...

[SportsGuy]

Trading Arrieta in a year where it didn't seem like they were really going to make the playoffs feels a lot like something they could do this year....and get a similar player in return.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think this undervalues his roster spot and our desire to compete at the time. I'd guess the calculus was more like, we might as well get something for a guy that we'll waive and will likely get claimed. 

 

But I'm not sure if I'm remembering that right...

 

You just spent yesterday arguing (correctly) that the difference over a couple hundred ab's the between Parra and Bruce the rest of '15 was limited best... it's the same argument. Feldman in '13, might have been a better bet to produce during the remainder of the year vs. Arrieta.. but the innings were limited enough that you could argue either way. 

 

Regardless, you could have found a way to keep Arrieta on the roster... and that would have made more sense big picture wise.

[SportsGuy]

You just spent yesterday arguing (correctly) that the difference over a couple hundred ab's the between Parra and Bruce the rest of '15 was limited best... it's the same argument. Feldman in '13, might have been a better bet to produce during the remainder of the year vs. Arrieta.. but the innings were limited enough that you could argue either way. 

 

Regardless, you could have found a way to keep Arrieta on the roster... and that would have made more sense big picture wise.

Ultimately, isn't this the reason to be sellers this year?

 

I mean, today's game(and the next 3) are really the season in many ways.  If you lose today, the division is still attainable but not likely.  Unless the Yankees have injury issues, I think they hold on to win this division.  The pitching is good enough, the back end of the pen is unstoppable and the offense is going to keep producing.  

 

So, its all about the WC and you have 6 or so teams that have a realistic shot at it and I don't think you can definitively say the Os are better than any of them, at least not with how this season is playing out.

 

The Orioles have been unlucky this year but the old say of I would rather be lucky than good can work in the opposite way too.

 

2012 was a lucky season...the baseball gods are paying us back this year.

 

So, looking at the big picture is probably the smartest thing to do...but the next 4 games tells us everything.

[JordanKough]

You just spent yesterday arguing (correctly) that the difference over a couple hundred ab's the between Parra and Bruce the rest of '15 was limited best... it's the same argument. Feldman in '13, might have been a better bet to produce during the remainder of the year vs. Arrieta.. but the innings were limited enough that you could argue either way. 

 

Regardless, you could have found a way to keep Arrieta on the roster... and that would have made more sense big picture wise.

 

I see your point, but it's one thing to say it's negligible when both guys are playing well. 

 

It's a completely other thing to say that when Arrieta never put it together for more than one night in a row ever. 

 

I wouldn't call this completely apples to apples. But I do see your point. 

 

I just don't think the O's ever thought he was going to put it together and while I fault them for that, I just wouldn't call this the lowest point of DD's tenure here. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Ultimately, isn't this the reason to be sellers this year?

 

I mean, today's game(and the next 3) are really the season in many ways.  If you lose today, the division is still attainable but not likely.  Unless the Yankees have injury issues, I think they hold on to win this division.  The pitching is good enough, the back end of the pen is unstoppable and the offense is going to keep producing.  

 

So, its all about the WC and you have 6 or so teams that have a realistic shot at it and I don't think you can definitively say the Os are better than any of them, at least not with how this season is playing out.

 

The Orioles have been unlucky this year but the old say of I would rather be lucky than good can work in the opposite way too.

 

2012 was a lucky season...the baseball gods are paying us back this year.

 

So, looking at the big picture is probably the smartest thing to do...but the next 4 games tells us everything.

 

I'm still of the opinion that the O's are the best team in the East... but you are what your record says you are at this point. The O's record says they are an average team... so it doesn't really matter right now if everyone else around them isn't that impressive. The O's roster as is hasn't done enough that it screams that the FO should be adding to what exists.

I could live with the O's basically standing pat, and seeing if the core which exists could play their way into the post-season... but yes, this stretch of play really illustrates the more prudent move would be selling.

 

What I can't really advocate for is adding... at-least any thing of of significance. If DD can add along the fringes as he's done before, I won't complain about that.

[Matt_P]

Meh.  They traded Arrieta's obvious potential for Scott Freaking Feldman.  Feldman was never going to be more than a back end starter, and preferably a reliever. A rental.

It doesn't matter if Arrieta had gone to the Cubs and completely flamed out...  his potential and ceiling still existed. It would have still existed as an Oriole. He was cheap. You controlled his contract. The talent  was there. You keep that arm on the roster somehow... and if you do move him, you move as part of a package for a better piece... and you certainly don't move him when his value is at a low.

 

To be fair, you didn't argue that it was a great trade. But that was easily the overwhelming sentiment on this board at the time.

http://www.baltimore...-feldman/page-8

 

He was cheap and under control. He was also out of options. It's awfully hard to just keep a guy on the roster if he's out of options. The only choices the Os had were to keep throwing him out there as a starter (and he was terrible), convert him into a reliever, trade or DFA him. 

[Matt_P]

I agree with the narrative that we aren't great a developing pitching, but I think generally it's more anecdotal in assessment than evidence based.

 

How many legitimate good pitching prospects do teams produce over five years? And then you have to take out ones that are injured. Anecdotes are the only way to go.

[JordanKough]

How many legitimate good pitching prospects do teams produce over five years? And then you have to take out ones that are injured. Anecdotes are the only way to go.

 

I don't disagree, but doesn't that at least make you think there's a bit more luck involved regardless of program? 

 

Yes, the Cubs showed us how to improve Arrieta, but beyond that...are we really talking about a substantial amount of room for impact?

It's like of like the Verducci effect stuff. People all follow it, but if Gausman threw 50+ innings, there's really not enough history of data to tell us that it's really putting him at any kind of meaningful risk. So it's more like you do whatever is the least risky based on what you think might be right.

 

I'm not defending the O's or anything, just saying the sample is so small and baseball especially in development is littered with failures. Luck plays a big role in some of this stuff and can lead to team defining narratives that there might not be evidence to back up.

[Matt_P]

I'm not defending the O's or anything, just saying the sample is so small and baseball especially in development is littered with failures. Luck plays a big role in some of this stuff and can lead to team defining narratives that there might not be evidence to back up.

 

I think the Os would have better evidence than we do. For something like this, I'm not looking for statistical rigor because that's impossible. I'm looking for whether there's a chance that's something wrong and if so I'm cutting bait.

 

In cases like this, it makes sense to take a high risk that you're making a type I error (false positive) because the data necessary to determine whether you're right will take so long to develop. I can't prove that they're bad as opposed to lucky but the Os can't afford to wait ten years to find out for sure.

[BSLChrisStoner]

To be fair, you didn't argue that it was a great trade. But that was easily the overwhelming sentiment on this board at the time.

http://www.baltimore...-feldman/page-8

 

He was cheap and under control. He was also out of options. It's awfully hard to just keep a guy on the roster if he's out of options. The only choices the Os had were to keep throwing him out there as a starter (and he was terrible), convert him into a reliever, trade or DFA him. 

 

I crushed the idea of trading Arrieta and Strop before they were traded in multiple posts and articles... I was in the minority. When the trade was made, I understood the sentiment of a change of scenery maybe being for the best... but still disagreed with the logic.

 

I liked Strop a lot, but did agree he was ultimately a replaceable reliever.. and did agree that if Buck lacked the confidence to use him at all, that they couldn't just hide him going further. So I did get on-board in that regard.  Never agreed the same with Arrieta. Moving him was one thing... moving him for Feldman was another.