125 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

Kind of a false choice since you'd need to add players and money to the Shields side.

You could get a bunch of league minimum guys, especially out of the pen.

Add a Mayberry for less than a million and you haven't really spent money in addition to Shields.

[mweb08]

Kind of a false choice since you'd need to add players and money to the Shields side.

You could get a bunch of league minimum guys, especially out of the pen.


Add a Mayberry for less than a million and you haven't really spent money in addition to Shields.

Well Mayberry can be added to the other side too, so it's still not a totally fair choice. So I guess you'd start Lough vs righties in that case? Anyway, I don't know if Shields is better than Norris by enough to make up for the loss of De Aza and Hunter. But in general I'd love to get some premium talent rather than a bunch of mid tier guys, thus why I mentioned Max, I'm just not sure that Shields is a premium guy.

[SportsGuy]

Well Mayberry can be added to the other side too, so it's still not a totally fair choice. So I guess you'd start Lough vs righties in that case? Anyway, I don't know if Shields is better than Norris by enough to make up for the loss of De Aza and Hunter. But in general I'd love to get some premium talent rather than a bunch of mid tier guys, thus why I mentioned Max, I'm just not sure that Shields is a premium guy.

He's a notch below premium...but Scherzer isn't 80 million better either imo.

The seperation in FIP and xFIP isn't much and Shields usually gives you more innings.

[mweb08]

He's a notch below premium...but Scherzer isn't 80 million better either imo.

The seperation in FIP and xFIP isn't much and Shields usually gives you more innings.

 

Well that's 80 million with added years. 

 

We're talking about 7-8 million better per season, and yes, I think he is that much better. While I do not support paying that much for 1 WAR when it's upgrading from 0-1 or 1-2, I am fine with it when you're talking about lets say a 5 win player instead of a 4 win player. 

 

Oh, and Scherzer was 11th in FIP last year while Shields was 41st. In xFIP, it was 15th to 34th. So that is pretty significant.

[RShack]

We don't need to be spending a fortune on somebody else's SP... we just don't.  There's no good reason to do that unless you're just trying to spend money.

[SportsGuy]

Well that's 80 million with added years.

We're talking about 7-8 million better per season, and yes, I think he is that much better. While I do not support paying that much for 1 WAR when it's upgrading from 0-1 or 1-2, I am fine with it when you're talking about lets say a 5 win player instead of a 4 win player.

Oh, and Scherzer was 11th in FIP last year while Shields was 41st. In xFIP, it was 15th to 34th. So that is pretty significant.

The last 2 years, it's been a wider gap...other than that, it's close.

Shields has been consistent...Scherzer has gotten better but does he fall back some because if he falls back at all, that gap really closes.

Either way, not worth 1-2 years more and another 75-100 million imo. I would rather have Shields and that money to spend elsewhere.

I would love to get Scherzer though.

[SportsGuy]

We don't need to be spending a fortune on somebody else's SP... we just don't.  There's no good reason to do that unless you're just trying to spend money.

This post makes zero sense.

Who cares if it is someone else's pitcher? The key is upgrading the talent to win.

[RShack]

This post makes zero sense.

Who cares if it is someone else's pitcher? The key is upgrading the talent to win.

 

With the possible (but not certain) exception of RP #3, we've got enough P-talent to win right now.  There's no good reason to spend a fortune on a SP we don't already have (unless we're stockpiling 9 SP's to cope with somebody getting hurt... but since lotsa people think we need to trade one of the ones we already have, I don't think this is the rationale...)

[mweb08]

The last 2 years, it's been a wider gap...other than that, it's close.

Shields has been consistent...Scherzer has gotten better but does he fall back some because if he falls back at all, that gap really closes.

Either way, not worth 1-2 years more and another 75-100 million imo. I would rather have Shields and that money to spend elsewhere.

I would love to get Scherzer though.

 

I don't see much reason to worry about Max going back to what he used to be. But sure, there needs to be a limit on spending. For me, though, he makes more sense than Shields and if were to go cheaper I would have went with McCarthy or just stuck with what we have.

 

BTW, in terms of raw ERA numbers, Shields has had tremendous D for basically his entire career and has pitched in favorable parks while Scherzer has the latter going for him, he has pitched in front of some poor defenses. 

[SportsGuy]

With the possible (but not certain) exception of RP #3, we've got enough P-talent to win right now. There's no good reason to spend a fortune on a SP we don't already have (unless we're stockpiling 9 SP's to cope with somebody getting hurt... but since lotsa people think we need to trade one of the ones we already have, I don't think this is the rationale...)

There's always good reason to sign players that are clear upgrades over what you have, especially when you can win a title and that player helps put you over the top.

And just because we won last year with these pitchers doesn't mean it will happen again.

Going with status quo because it worked before is a good way to lose the ALE crown.

[SportsGuy]

I don't see much reason to worry about Max going back to what he used to be. But sure, there needs to be a limit on spending. For me, though, he makes more sense than Shields and if were to go cheaper I would have went with McCarthy or just stuck with what we have.
 
BTW, in terms of raw ERA numbers, Shields has had tremendous D for basically his entire career and has pitched in favorable parks while Scherzer has the latter going for him, he has pitched in front of some poor defenses. 

Well, he is more of a fly all pitcher though, which negates the defensive issues, at least somewhat.

One of the reasons to add Shields is durability and the innings he provides. BMac obviously isn't on that same level. He's a 48M dollar lottery ticket due to his should and prior durability concerns.

And MS doesn't have to go to what he used to be per say...but just going from a 2.8 FIP to a 3.1 FIP closes that gap significantly.

[mweb08]

But I don't see much reason to think Max is more likely to have a .3 ERA or FIP increase than is Shields. If Shields has the increase you mention, but not Max, then it's a huge difference between the two.

[SportsGuy]

But I don't see much reason to think Max is more likely to have a .3 ERA or FIP than is Shields. If Shields has the increase you mention, but not Max, then it's a huge difference between the two.

I see more reason Max drops back than Shields does though.

Either way, I'm not giving Max 7 or 8 years and 180+ million.

[bnickle]

It's a shame we wrapped up 12-13 mil a year into Jimenez last year because otherwise I think we would be in position to make a strong play for Shields.


Again, I was for it at the time and it's hindsight to say it but damn. I wonder how much we would have to pay for a straight dump of UJ??

[mweb08]

Playing your game Rob, would you rather have Shields with Hunter and Matusz or Scherzer with two minimum salary relievers?

[SportsGuy]

Playing your game Rob, would you rather have Shields with Hunter and Matusz or Scherzer with two minimum salary relievers?

For 2015? The latter.

For the deal it will take to sign Scherzer? The former.

[Mackus]

Scherzer is going to get 7 years and probably more than 168 million as well.

 

Ok, 7/$189M for Scherzer over 5/$95M for Shields, IMO.  $8M per year more, that's a no-brainer.  The two-years extra, crap yeah that's scary, but still it's Scherzer's age 30-36 years compared to Shields at ages 33-37.  I'd still gamble on Scherzer if those are the numbers.  Honestly, if we were a true high budget team, I'd go big after Scherzer but wouldn't even consider Shields.  Even if scherzer signed elsewhere and it came down to Shields or nothing, I'd pass and wait for the next big deal to come along, I don't think a good #2 like Shields is worth it.

[SportsGuy]

Ok, 7/$189M for Scherzer over 5/$95M for Shields, IMO.  $8M per year more, that's a no-brainer.  The two-years extra, crap yeah that's scary, but still it's Scherzer's age 30-36 years compared to Shields at ages 33-37.  I'd still gamble on Scherzer if those are the numbers.  Honestly, if we were a true high budget team, I'd go big after Scherzer but wouldn't even consider Shields.  Even if scherzer signed elsewhere and it came down to Shields or nothing, I'd pass and wait for the next big deal to come along, I don't think a good #2 like Shields is worth it.

Well, he has been "worth it", essentially his entire career.

[mweb08]

Scherzer is going to get 7 years and probably more than 168 million as well.

 
Ok, 7/$189M for Scherzer over 5/$95M for Shields, IMO.  $8M per year more, that's a no-brainer.  The two-years extra, crap yeah that's scary, but still it's Scherzer's age 30-36 years compared to Shields at ages 33-37.  I'd still gamble on Scherzer if those are the numbers.  Honestly, if we were a true high budget team, I'd go big after Scherzer but wouldn't even consider Shields.  Even if scherzer signed elsewhere and it came down to Shields or nothing, I'd pass and wait for the next big deal to come along, I don't think a good #2 like Shields is worth it.

Agreed. Go for the elite player rather than the very good one. Especially given what our rotation lacks.

[Mackus]

Well, he has been "worth it", essentially his entire career.

 

Shields indeed has been very good.  He's just not been great.  I wouldn't say that he'd be a bad deal, if he pitches from ages 33-36 like he has all along, then he's easily worth $20M a year.

 

I just would prefer paying for an absolute upper echelon, top 5 or 10 type guy like Scherzer is, even if he costs 33-50% more per year and a longer commitment.

 

You won't hear one critical word out of me if the O's do sign Shields, that'd be fantastic.  I just think Scherzer, even at more money, would be even better.  I think both are so far beyond the realm of possibility that they are equally likely to be signed.  Signing Shields because we can't afford Scherzer is the same as me saying that sure, I'd take a BJ from Scarlett Johansson but only because Mila Kunis and Kate Upton were too busy to make it to our scheduled threesome.