599 replies to this topic

[BSLMikeLowe]

Why wouldn't the Big Ten take them now? Seems inevitable. 

 

ND is the most valuable property not already in the Power 2. Guess the Big Ten wants to make sure they get them. And to keep an even number balance, they'd only be able to take one of Oregon/Washington along with ND. And if Jeff Ermann is to be believed, it sounds like it'd be Oregon (gotta think that's the Phil Knight influence at work).

 

Thing is, I don't think ND is really inclined to make a move just yet. They'll wait and see how CFP expansion shakes out. If it looks like their chances of getting in the Playoff are still decent if they stay independent, they will. If they think they're going to end up locked out, they will join a conference.

[BSLMikeLowe]

But the other part of that is again Notre Dame... if/when ND says yes... the ACC is done. 

 

I would think this is a good opportunity for the ACC to go on the offensive. Oregon and Washington want out. The Big Ten isn't interested, for now. Would they get anxious to take any landing spot that is better than where they are now? If the ACC offers it, maybe they jump. Same goes for Cal/Stanford. Those two don't add value for the Big Ten, but they just might for the ACC. You add 4 West Coast schools, from the Bay Area through the Pacific Northwest, and that may be enough to trigger a renegotiation of TV rights with ESPN, which is currently a real sticking point with some existing ACC members (Clemson and FSU most notably).

[Chris B]

I would think this is a good opportunity for the ACC to go on the offensive. Oregon and Washington want out. The Big Ten isn't interested, for now. Would they get anxious to take any landing spot that is better than where they are now? If the ACC offers it, maybe they jump. Same goes for Cal/Stanford. Those two don't add value for the Big Ten, but they just might for the ACC. You add 4 West Coast schools, from the Bay Area through the Pacific Northwest, and that may be enough to trigger a renegotiation of TV rights with ESPN, which is currently a real sticking point with somme existing ACC members (Clemson and FSU most notably).

 

ACC could even go add the 7 most desirable PAC schools for a full western division (Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, and then maybe Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado?)

[BSLMikeLowe]

ACC could even go add the 7 most desirable PAC schools for a full western division (Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, and then maybe Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado?)

 

Sure, as long as ESPN feels they add enough value. And ESPN is calling a lot of shots here, just like FOX was a major player in USC/UCLA joining the Big Ten (they wanted to make sure they had a piece of the LA market.

 

ESPN has big programming needs, as they have ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU/ESPN+ to fill, along with the ACC and SEC Networks. They also want inventory to fill the late night TV slots on fall Saturdays (weird as it sounds, those 10:30pm ET kickoffs actually have value to networks). So if ESPN can ensure they would have 100% of broadcast rights for a big chunk of what is left of the Pac, they might bite if the ACC wants to go for it.

[BSLChrisStoner]

ND is the most valuable property not already in the Power 2. Guess the Big Ten wants to make sure they get them. And to keep an even number balance, they'd only be able to take one of Oregon/Washington along with ND. And if Jeff Ermann is to be believed, it sounds like it'd be Oregon (gotta think that's the Phil Knight influence at work).

 

Thing is, I don't think ND is really inclined to make a move just yet. They'll wait and see how CFP expansion shakes out. If it looks like their chances of getting in the Playoff are still decent if they stay independent, they will. If they think they're going to end up locked out, they will join a conference.

Right but if you think the ultimate plan (for both the Big Ten and the SEC) is to get to 24+, then it's not about 2 schools... it's about grabbing your next 8.  Obviously the Big Ten hopes / wants Notre Dame to be one of the eight, and that's the priority... because it's ND, and also because it would kill the ACC. 

But the Big Ten isn't staying at 16, and it doesn't make a lot of sense to just have USC and UCLA.    

[BSLChrisStoner]

I would think this is a good opportunity for the ACC to go on the offensive. Oregon and Washington want out. The Big Ten isn't interested, for now. Would they get anxious to take any landing spot that is better than where they are now? If the ACC offers it, maybe they jump. Same goes for Cal/Stanford. Those two don't add value for the Big Ten, but they just might for the ACC. You add 4 West Coast schools, from the Bay Area through the Pacific Northwest, and that may be enough to trigger a renegotiation of TV rights with ESPN, which is currently a real sticking point with some existing ACC members (Clemson and FSU most notably).

 

 

ACC could even go add the 7 most desirable PAC schools for a full western division (Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, and then maybe Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado?)

Which is the other part of why I didn't understand the Big Ten not saying yes immediately to Oregon and Washington...  

You don't want to give the ACC and the remaining Pac 12 and Big 12 members options...  you want to knock them out before they can adjust.

[CantonJester]

Which is the other part of why I didn't understand the Big Ten not saying yes immediately to Oregon and Washington...  

You don't want to give the ACC and the remaining Pac 12 and Big 12 members options...  you want to knock them out before they can adjust.

 

What's the endgame here?

[BSLChrisStoner]

What's the endgame here?

The endgame is the SEC and Big Ten both getting to 24 with them respectively taking what they want from the ACC, Pac 12, and Big 12... and the remnants of those conferences being screwed.

[BSLMikeLowe]

The endgame is the SEC and Big Ten both getting to 24 with them respectively taking what they want from the ACC, Pac 12, and Big 12... and the remnants of those conferences being screwed.

 

Is the end game to get to 24, or to simply acquire as many brand name programs as you can that will maximize your TV money? If the latter, then maybe it's 24. Maybe it's 32. Or maybe it stops at 18 (once someone gets ND+1). The network execs call the shots on this stuff more than I think most people realize. And while it might seem like this is the SEC vs Big Ten to become the most valuable conference in college sports, behind the scenes it's really ESPN vs FOX to own the most valuable broadcast properties in college sports.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yeah the end game is gain the most $.
I think clearly they are aiming for at least 24.
Maybe it does end up being more.

Great point on Fox v ESPN.

[mdrunning]

Jeff Ermann reporting that the Big Ten is reasonably confident that Notre Dame and Oregon will join them at some point.

Why not Stanford? I don't know if there's been any indication that they, too, might come down with a case of wanderlust, but their academic credibility alone would make them attractive to either the Big Ten or the SEC.

 

You've got to wonder, however, if all of this isn't a precursor to where the NCAA is headed. With these super conferences controlling the big programs and the lion's share of the revenue, what the hell do they really need the NCAA for?

[BSLMikeLowe]

Why not Stanford? I don't know if there's been any indication that they, too, might come down with a case of wanderlust, but their academic credibility alone would make them attractive to either the Big Ten or the SEC.

 

You've got to wonder, however, if all of this isn't a precursor to where the NCAA is headed. With these super conferences controlling the big programs and the lion's share of the revenue, what the hell do they really need the NCAA for?

If academics meant that much, they could add Harvard and cut down on travel expenses. Stanford isn’t viable because not enough people watch their games, and the TV networks are letting the Big Ten know they aren’t paying more for Stanford.

No more than 5 years from now, the NCAA will have no role at all in oversight of college football (their role is already limited compared to other sports). The most likely governing body of the future is the CFP, which like it is now, will be an appointed CEO who answers to a board consisting of the conference commissioners and a rotating group of school presidents.

[BSLChrisStoner]

• Pac-12 eyeing expansion after UCLA, USC exit

[CantonJester]

The endgame is the SEC and Big Ten both getting to 24 with them respectively taking what they want from the ACC, Pac 12, and Big 12... and the remnants of those conferences being screwed.

 

How utterly dystopian.

[BSLMikeLowe]

I think we can stop calling this realignment or expansion. What’s really happening here is consolidation, of as many truly valuable football properties as there are. Imagine how lucky schools like Vanderbilt and Northwestern feel right now; or for that matter Maryland and Rutgers, who got to join the in-crowd back when media market size was still a primary driver of value.

[BSLChrisStoner]

ESPN+: What college football's most powerful people are saying about the sport's new world order

https://www.espn.com...new-world-order

[BSLChrisStoner]

CBS Sports: College Football 2.0: Who gets left behind as realignment, new leadership, player empowerment reshape game?

https://www.cbssport...t-reshape-game/

[CantonJester]

ESPN+: What college football's most powerful people are saying about the sport's new world order

https://www.espn.com...new-world-order

 

 

For the ACC to keep Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Florida State and Virginia happy -- those would be the most logical targets for the SEC or Big Ten -- may mean that the league will have to engage in some type of conversation about unequal revenue sharing. The theory being, why should Clemson make the same amount as Boston College when they don't present the same value? Could the ACC distribute money based on performance to help, for example, Clemson stay more financially competitive with South Carolina and Miami and FSU with Florida?

 

Yuck.

[BSLMikeLowe]

The Big 12 went that route to keep Texas from leaving (Longhorn Network). In the end, Texas left anyway.

[CantonJester]

The Big 12 went that route to keep Texas from leaving (Longhorn Network). In the end, Texas left anyway.

 

Yeah I remember.