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Last Thoughts Before The Deadline


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 04:14 PM

They've got to add, and I expect they will.

 

They've got a roster that's capable of winning it all, and it's also a roster with real limitations. 

 

When things went sideways in the game today, there were in the moment comments in the game thread saying, 'Don't add' 

 

Most of that is just emotion for that second, but for anyone that really thinks that... I just disagree. 

The O's have been a rough watch for a month, but I don't see anyone out there that is demonstrably better. 

 

The O's don't have to give up everyone in their system to address their weaknesses, but I do think they have to add. 

Ideally, they'd add two starters, and two relievers, with at-least one of those relievers being a legitimate high leverage guy. 

 

I'd want one of the starters (again ideally) to knock Rodriguez to the 3rd starter spot.

 

Ideally might not happen. 

What should happen at the minimum imo, is adding one starter that makes Kremer the 4th starter, and at-least one high quality reliever. 

I don't think that's a particularly high bar request wise, and that can surely be accomplished while holding on to the best prospects. 

 

I said it another thread, but I'll say it here... I would not give up Holliday or Mayo for Crochet.
I'd prefer to not give up either for Skubal.  I'd consider it, but my preference would be a Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Beavers, McDermott deal. 

 

Honestly, I'd be a bit more disappointed at losing Kjerstad vs. Basallo; largely because I do think a Rutschman deal probably happens. 

 

I've seen the latest reporting that Skubal is unlikely to be moved, but I'd be trying hard there.
I love the idea of adding him, and knowing he'd be around for '25 (when you won't have Bradish, and could be without Burnes), and '26... years you have the positional core to contend, but will need to add a front-end starter to pair with Rodriguez.  (I do continue to hope the new Ownership will make a run at Burnes as well.)



#2 Slidemaster

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 04:41 PM

They've got to add, and I expect they will.

They've got a roster that's capable of winning it all, and it's also a roster with real limitations.

When things went sideways in the game today, there were in the moment comments in the game thread saying, 'Don't add'

Most of that is just emotion for that second, but for anyone that really thinks that... I just disagree.

The O's have been a rough watch for a month, but I don't see anyone out there that is demonstrably better.

The O's don't have to give up everyone in their system to address their weaknesses, but I do think they have to add.

Ideally, they'd add two starters, and two relievers, with at-least one of those relievers being a legitimate high leverage guy.

I'd want one of the starters (again ideally) to knock Rodriguez to the 3rd starter spot.

Ideally might not happen.

What should happen at the minimum imo, is adding one starter that makes Kremer the 4th starter, and at-least one high quality reliever.

I don't think that's a particularly high bar request wise, and that can surely be accomplished while holding on to the best prospects.

I said it another thread, but I'll say it here... I would not give up Holliday or Mayo for Crochet.
I'd prefer to not give up either for Skubal. I'd consider it, but my preference would be a Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Beavers, McDermott deal.

Honestly, I'd be a bit more disappointed at losing Kjerstad vs. Basallo; largely because I do think a Rutschman deal probably happens.

I've seen the latest reporting that Skubal is unlikely to be moved, but I'd be trying hard there.
I love the idea of adding him, and knowing he'd be around for '25 (when you won't have Bradish, and could be without Burnes), and '26... years you have the positional core to contend, but will need to add a front-end starter to pair with Rodriguez. (I do continue to hope the new Ownership will make a run at Burnes as well.)


I would add, but I'm just not throwing away top 25, future all-star level prospects on a team that looks like an easy first round exit. They have problems in the rotation, bullpen, and lineup, and holes are opening in the boat faster than they can be plugged.

It sucks, but it is what it is.

Add who you can get for non Holliday/Mayo/Basallo/Kjerstad prospects, but only if they are controllable next year. Otherwise I'm content to just limp along and play out the year. Watching any of those guys making all-star teams for someone else, and knowing we gave them away on a pipe dream that this deeply flawed team could have a 5% better chance of making a run is an untenable situation for me.

#3 Mackus

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 04:44 PM

Give me two of Elfin, Eovaldi, Fedde, Bassitt, Scherzer, Gray, Taillon, Lorenzen, Flaherty, or Kikuchi and two of Scott, Estevez, Yates, Finnegan, Foley, Green, or Robertson. I have preferences on those lists, but two of each is more important to me than which two.

I'm good offensively, don't need to make any additions and willing to trade away guys like Mountcastle, Hays, and Urias if needed. Mountcastle the best bait due to having some actual value and the quality of the in-house replacement already on hand.

#4 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 05:28 PM

I would add, but I'm just not throwing away top 25, future all-star level prospects on a team that looks like an easy first round exit. They have problems in the rotation, bullpen, and lineup, and holes are opening in the boat faster than they can be plugged.

It sucks, but it is what it is.

Add who you can get for non Holliday/Mayo/Basallo/Kjerstad prospects, but only if they are controllable next year. Otherwise I'm content to just limp along and play out the year. Watching any of those guys making all-star teams for someone else, and knowing we gave them away on a pipe dream that this deeply flawed team could have a 5% better chance of making a run is an untenable situation for me.

Just cut and pasting the response I put in today's game thread. 

 

Are you talking about Holliday? Bombed in his first test.

Are you talking about Basallo or Mayo? They have a combined zero ML at bats.

Calling these guys 6 year all stars is a huge stretch. maybe they all do turn out to be all stars. But the biggest flaw in your logic is that these guys do not fix our biggest issue. Not one of these guys are starting pitching. Even if, and it's a big if, they really do make our offense improved and more consistent, the 3 biggest holes remain. Two starters behind GRod and a closer. By far the most likely path to get those is with our trade chips. It's the resource we have more than any other team. If we have to go after our needs with money only, generally speaking, we will lose to the usual suspects. 



#5 jamesdean

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 05:40 PM

I could be proven wrong but I think the chances of Elias adding two starters AND two relievers is slim to none.  Maybe in the off season, he'll eventually add on to the roster but not at a deadline.  I'll be content if he adds a 2nd tier starter and reliever, which I think is more realistic.  It may just wind up being a starter and nothing else.  I could see that scenario too. 



#6 Slidemaster

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 05:40 PM

You keep saying that over and over. I will give you that you consistent. But you have not once answered the where are we going to get deep run playoff caliber pitching? We may or may not have Burnes next year. Behind him we have GRod and a whole hand full of #5/6s.

We do NOT have playoff caliber starters in AAA and maybe not even in AA.
If we try and buy playoff caliber starters you are competing with the usual teams (Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, etc). We likely don't buy what we need this way. But we do have better trade chips than all of these teams. We do not have roster space for all of them. But you just want to hold on to them which I get. So tell me where we get this playoff starting pitching?

If you want to write off Holliday because he couldn't make it as a 20-year-old in the big leagues, go right ahead. I still think he's going to be an all-star, and I suspect that Basallo, Mayo, and Kjerstad all have a chance to do it as well.

Regardless of any of that, I'm certainly not trading them for artificially inflated pitcher prices at the deadline to teams that know we are desperate. I fully expect we would regret any of those trades.

#7 Mackus

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 05:46 PM

I could be proven wrong but I think the chances of Elias adding two starters AND two relievers is slim to none. Maybe in the off season, he'll eventually add on to the roster but not at a deadline. I'll be content if he adds a 2nd tier starter and reliever, which I think is more realistic. It may just wind up being a starter and nothing else. I could see that scenario too.

I'm expecting one of each but someone from the lists of guys I like. Agree that two of each seems like a long shot, but I think it's clearly the right move to do so (willing to revisit this opinion once we see cost for guys). One of each is kind of the bear minimum approach. It'd be ok, but not reflective of how good our chances are this year and should continue to be with the right patches.

Also many of the options are controllable for 2025 so it doesn't have to be just rentals.

#8 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 05:52 PM

If you want to write off Holliday because he couldn't make it as a 20-year-old in the big leagues, go right ahead. I still think he's going to be an all-star, and I suspect that Basallo, Mayo, and Kjerstad all have a chance to do it as well.

Regardless of any of that, I'm certainly not trading them for artificially inflated pitcher prices at the deadline to teams that know we are desperate. I fully expect we would regret any of those trades.

They may well turn out to be all stars. But still answer the base question. If you aren't willing to trade any of these blue chip prospects then where are you getting your playoff quality starting pitching?



#9 makoman

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 05:53 PM


I could be proven wrong but I think the chances of Elias adding two starters AND two relievers is slim to none. Maybe in the off season, he'll eventually add on to the roster but not at a deadline. I'll be content if he adds a 2nd tier starter and reliever, which I think is more realistic. It may just wind up being a starter and nothing else. I could see that scenario too.


I agree with this, I think it will be 1 and 1 and will be surprised if it's more. I would like 2 and 2,, but I think expecting more than 1 is setting myself up for disappointment. In the BP I'm also hoping for McDermott to be useful down the stretch, plus hopefully Coulombe soon.

#10 Slidemaster

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 05:55 PM

They may well turn out to be all stars. But still answer the base question. If you aren't willing to trade any of these blue chip prospects then where are you getting your playoff quality starting pitching?


To be honest, after seeing the way they've been playing the last month, this year I'm kind of just willing to let it ride with what they have if they can't find a reasonable deal. The prices for pitching are astronomical at the deadline especially, and I would rather they just address it in the off season than pay the desperation price now.

#11 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 06:07 PM

I would add, but I'm just not throwing away top 25, future all-star level prospects on a team that looks like an easy first round exit. They have problems in the rotation, bullpen, and lineup, and holes are opening in the boat faster than they can be plugged.

It sucks, but it is what it is.

Add who you can get for non Holliday/Mayo/Basallo/Kjerstad prospects, but only if they are controllable next year. Otherwise I'm content to just limp along and play out the year. Watching any of those guys making all-star teams for someone else, and knowing we gave them away on a pipe dream that this deeply flawed team could have a 5% better chance of making a run is an untenable situation for me.

Trash defeatist post. 



#12 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 06:09 PM

Get all the quitters out of here and dont let them back on the train



#13 BaltBird 24

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 06:12 PM

Anything can happen in a short series, especially if you're throwing Burnes (twice), Rodriguez, and hopefully a quality 3rd starter.

#14 CantonJester

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 06:15 PM

LOL do you need "safe space" in the title of the thread to avoid you throwing a conniption? 



#15 CantonJester

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 06:16 PM

Anything can happen in a short series, especially if you're throwing Burnes (twice), Rodriguez, and hopefully a quality 3rd starter.

 

The '3rd' starter should be G-Rod. 

 

It's tough to say the O's should just ride this out due to their performance this past month or so. They still are tied for the 2nd best record in the major leagues. 



#16 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 06:47 PM

If they're not paying Skubal prices I'd like Eovaldi, playoff experience probably isn't actually that meaningful (WS champ Freddie Freeman was awful in the NLDS for the Dodgers last year) but it feels like it would be helpful on a roster where most people haven't sniffed the playoffs besides last year and the most prominent player who has just came off a pretty stinky NLCS



#17 Mackus

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 06:52 PM

If they're not paying Skubal prices I'd like Eovaldi, playoff experience probably isn't actually that meaningful (WS champ Freddie Freeman was awful in the NLDS for the Dodgers last year) but it feels like it would be helpful on a roster where most people haven't sniffed the playoffs besides last year and the most prominent player who has just came off a pretty stinky NLCS


He's near the top of my wish list. The playoff experience is nice, but more than that, he's just always been consistently quite good and most of his career was in the AL East. This is his first season in 5 years without an ERA between 3.63 and 3.87, and he's only outside that range because he's currently better.

Eflin and Eovaldi would be fantastic, IMO. I'd see if Eovaldi was interested in converting his $20M player option (which he'll earn with 50 more innings this year) into a guaranteed year for a few more bucks. Eflin already locked in for $18M.

I'm pretty worried Texas isn't gonna sell. Which is a bummer because they have lots of pitching.

#18 RichardZ

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 07:00 PM

They may well turn out to be all stars. But still answer the base question. If you aren't willing to trade any of these blue chip prospects then where are you getting your playoff quality starting pitching?



You can get Fedde, Kikuchi, and a couple of relievers without trading Holliday, Mayo, Basallo, or Kjerstad.

#19 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 07:29 PM

You can get Fedde, Kikuchi, and a couple of relievers without trading Holliday, Mayo, Basallo, or Kjerstad.


Maybe. And probably for Kikuchi who'd be a rental. Not sold on him anyway. Fedde would be fine.

#20 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 25 July 2024 - 07:32 PM

Eovaldi and Efflin would be great if both are available. Skubal should still be seriously considered if hes truly available. You get Burnes and his true ace ability this year only. If you can fill in the #2 hole with a 2nd ace for the playoffs thats making you the AL favorite




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