81 replies to this topic

[RichardZ]

LOL he wants the hell out of Chicago is what that tells me. 

Really? I would think this news makes it harder to trade him.

[CantonJester]

Really? I would think this news makes it harder to trade him.

 

He didn't say that to stay in Chicago. He said it for reasons only he knows, but are presumed to be around a pitcher's worries about the health of their elbow(s). 

 

These are the words of a guy who wants out of where he is, and well, wants to have his cake and eat it too. 

[RichardZ]

He didn't say that to stay in Chicago. He said it for reasons only he knows, but are presumed to be around a pitcher's worries about the health of their elbow(s). 
 
These are the words of a guy who wants out of where he is, and well, wants to have his cake and eat it too. 

Whatever his reasons, I think this scares off some teams who were willing to give up a lot to get him fairly cheaply for the next 2 years. Now, you still have to give up a lot in prospect capital plus commit serious money to a pitcher who has never pitched a complete season.

[CantonJester]

Whatever his reasons, I think this scares off some teams who were willing to give up a lot to get him fairly cheaply for the next 2 years. Now, you still have to give up a lot in prospect capital plus commit serious money to a pitcher who has never pitched a complete season.

 

It should scare off teams who are wary of a 25 year old pitcher trying to dictate terms not afforded to him by the CBA.

 

Hard pass. 

[Slidemaster]

I guess I have the opposite idea. Knowing he could be retained long term now means he will almost certainly take less than what it would cost to acquire his production on the FA market. He's an ascending pitcher with electric stuff who already had his TJ surgery. Seems like a safe enough bet.

[mdrunning]

By "extension" is Crochet asking for a buyout of his arbitration years, or does he want guarantees beyond the six-year threshold for team control? I don't think that was ever made clear.

[RichardZ]

By "extension" is Crochet asking for a buyout of his arbitration years, or does he want guarantees beyond the six-year threshold for team control? I don't think that was ever made clear.

However you cut it, I think he’s looking for long term security and big bucks. What that means specifically is anyone’s guess. Could it be 5/100M that starts next year?

He’s refusing to pitch in October without an extension. Suppose the WS keep him and trade him in the off season. What’s he going to come up with then? The WS, I believe, already tried to extend him.

[Slidemaster]

To be fair to Crochet, he never explicitly stated he would not pitch in October without an extension. It's just being reported that he wants an extension if the acquiring team wants needs him to do it.

[Mackus]

Go get Eflin today. Rays are selling and cheap by the looks of the Arozarena deal.  They took low-A guys in that deal.  Who can we part with from Delmarva and Aberdeen? 

[RichardZ]

Go get Eflin today. Rays are selling cheap by the looks of the Arozarena deal.

Rays are smart. Yeah, this kid might be #12 in their system but he just turned 20 and is having a really nice season in low A. Caminero probably wasn’t highly rated when they got him either. I agree though, on the surface it looks like they didn’t get a lot.

[Mackus]

Rays are smart. Yeah, this kid might be #12 in their system but he just turned 20 and is having a really nice season in low A. Caminero probably wasn’t highly rated when they got him either. I agree though, on the surface it looks like they didn’t get a lot.

 

Yeah, HS overslot pick, I read some details and posted in the M's thread.  Still, Arozarena is young, good and controllable.  When you're going for guys in low-A you're accepting the volatility, lot of attrition from that point even amongst young guys who are playing well.

[Mackus]

Eflin started Wednesday.  Trade for him today and he can start in Monday's doubleheader. He makes too much sense and with a big (for Tampa) salary next year I don't think it'll take a ton to get him.  Less than what Arozarena took, IMO, but pitching sometimes gets bidded up a bit further.

[RichardZ]

Eflin started Wednesday.  Trade for him today and he can start in Monday's doubleheader. He makes too much sense and with a big (for Tampa) salary next year I don't think it'll take a ton to get him.  Less than what Arozarena took, IMO, but pitching sometimes gets bidded up a bit further.

Saw the O’s might be in on Taillon. Similar but maybe slightly better and under contract for two more years instead of one like Eflin.

[Mackus]

Saw the O’s might be in on Taillon. Similar but maybe slightly better and under contract for two more years instead of one like Eflin.

 

Eflin is much better than Taillon, IMO.  I'd be fine with Taillon, but he's way down at the bottom of my list with Kikuchi and Flaherty.  Eflin is the top target for me.  Eovaldi also but I'm depressed about the Rangers 5-game winning streak.

 

The report about interest in Taillon was encouraging from the standpoint that, if true, they must be willing to take on some cash.

[RichardZ]

Eflin is much better than Taillon, IMO.  I'd be fine with Taillon, but he's way down at the bottom of my list with Kikuchi and Flaherty.  Eflin is the top target for me.  Eovaldi also but I'm depressed about the Rangers 5-game winning streak.
 
The report about interest in Taillon was encouraging from the standpoint that, if true, they must be willing to take on some cash.

Probably not worth debating but, what the heck. Eflin is much better by which measure?

[Mackus]

Probably not worth debating but, what the heck. Eflin is much better by which measure?

 

Probability of pitching well down the stretch and next year.  I'm valuing consistency and stability given the quality of the rest of the roster.  Taillon has more upside but also more downside.

 

Taillon usually is pretty close ERA and FIP but this year his ERA is way outproducing his FIP (2.96 to 3.77) which makes me think he's less likely to sustain the great numbers, although 3.77 would be very good result. Taillon's seasons have bounced all around, 4.84 ERA last year, 4.30 two years ago.  Eflin has been rock solid, between 3.97 and 4.17 each of the past 5 seasons (except last year when he dropped down to 3.50).

 

I'm confident we'll get good #3 numbers from Eflin.  Taillon might outperform that, but he might also be worse than Kremer, and I don't have any confidence that we're going to get one rather than the other.  I think ages also make Taillon more volatile even beyond what their track records suggest.  I'm less confident of what he'll do ages 33-34 than what Eflin will do at 31.  The extra control may become an ancor.

[makoman]

I think Taillon may be a guy we don't actually want to be paying 18M in 2026. The Cubs may feel the same and he comes cheaper. I'm fine with getting him though.

 

I wouldn't have any preference for Eflin over any of these other guys though. He's fine, last year was probably an outlier, but we're talking about mostly a JAG who is just bumping Kremer down a notch. Again that's ok, but I'd prefer Eovaldi or Fedde, recognizing that Fedde has his own risk.

[NewMarketSean]

I guess I have the opposite idea. Knowing he could be retained long term now means he will almost certainly take less than what it would cost to acquire his production on the FA market. He's an ascending pitcher with electric stuff who already had his TJ surgery. Seems like a safe enough bet.

 

Means is having his second TJ surgery in 2 years. Just because a guy has had one doesn't mean he's good the rest of his career.

[NewMarketSean]

TB could be doing the SportsGuy special: buying and selling at same time. Arozarena was having a mediocre year so they dont lose much by trading him. They're only 4 GB from last WC spot so maybe they're not in firesale mode just yet.

[Slidemaster]

Means is having his second TJ surgery in 2 years. Just because a guy has had one doesn't mean he's good the rest of his career.

You are correct, but Means couldn't get through 10 starts. Crochet has been very good this year and seems like his recovery had neared it's conclusion.