https://baltimorespo...erstad-or-mayo/

 

Take a break from your hot dogs and fireworks to read why I don't think it'll be a big deal if we trade one of these guys at the deadline 

Agree on Kjerstad even if I still would lean towards keeping him but I think our top 3 (I know you didn’t mention Holliday here) are elite prospects that you can’t count on duplicating no matter how good your scouting and development are. It’s the depth and guys that land somewhere in the middle to end of the top 100 that I would expect/hope the team can consistently churn out.

Still enjoyed reading!

A big deal? Probably not. We can afford to trade any one of the top guys. But we don’t have to. We can get someone like Fedde and someone like Tanner Scott without touching Holliday, Mayo, Basallo, or Kjerstad.

We've talked about Skubal and Crochet and I think either guy would justify moving one of these elite prospects, but who else is possibly out there that would make sense? Chris has mentioned Logan Webb, he'd be ideal, but I am very dubious the Giants sell. I doubt the Pirates arms get moved.

I am not opposed to dealing any of these guys, but having a hard time making up some trades that seem plausible. No need to remain grounded, crazy ideas can be fun and Elias should be asking about names even if he's 99% sure the answer is they aren't available.

Yeah I admittedly didn't want to get bogged down in trying to figure out the mock trades especially when the NL wild card race is a crapshoot where teams below .500 could still reasonably consider themselves buyers because they're only 2 or 3 games out of a playoff spot

Spot on assessment to me Rose! Of course you have to get a great return for one of the big name prospects. But we have been winning without them and could continue to do so. But I don't think there is much question that the O's could use some help in both the rotation and bullpen.

 

Absolutely can win it all even if they stand pat. But you have to consider improving the team for this October and next year. Now there is one key major piece we don't know yet and that is what Burnes is going to do. If we don't resign him (and I am leery we will) then our rotation in 2025 is weak sauce to put it mildly.

We've talked about Skubal and Crochet and I think either guy would justify moving one of these elite prospects, but who else is possibly out there that would make sense? Chris has mentioned Logan Webb, he'd be ideal, but I am very dubious the Giants sell. I doubt the Pirates arms get moved.
I am not opposed to dealing any of these guys, but having a hard time making up some trades that seem plausible. No need to remain grounded, crazy ideas can be fun and Elias should be asking about names even if he's 99% sure the answer is they aren't available.

Seems easy to me to come up with packages that start with Kjerstad and end up with us getting Crochet. Some, maybe most will call these overpays.

Kjerstad and choose 3
Norby or Beavers
McDermott or DeLeon
Bradfield or Etzel

There’s something to work with there. You can play around with it but the bottom line is that Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo are off limits.

I know I am in the minority but I'd be fine with Holliday + Norby + some lesser piece for Crochet.

Guys, Crochet isn't great. He's the best of what's out there, but don't think that he's Burnes or something.

 

Good teams stay good by not throwing away legit players for not good ones. The in house stuff we have is about as good as Crochet is. Yes...I mean the 3-5 starters and LR guys.

 

Spend money and lock up Burnes to stop next year's problem from getting worse. Promote McDermott or trade lower pieces for a rental.

 

Don't forget that Joe Saunders won a playoff game for us. And don't go throwing away MAJOR trade chips or future stars for #3 starters.

Guys, Crochet isn't great. He's the best of what's out there, but don't think that he's Burnes or something.
 
Good teams stay good by not throwing away legit players for not good ones. The in house stuff we have is about as good as Crochet is. Yes...I mean the 3-5 starters and LR guys.
 
Spend money and lock up Burnes to stop next year's problem from getting worse. Promote McDermott or trade lower pieces for a rental.
 
Don't forget that Joe Saunders won a playoff game for us. And don't go throwing away MAJOR trade chips or future stars for #3 starters.

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You’re right and you’re wrong. Garrett Crochet is great through the first half of the season and he’s as talented as Corbin Burnes. Is he going to continue being great and durable? Who knows? Crochet guarantees you nothing. You could start Burnes, Crochet, and GRod and get swept. He only increases your chances. But you’re severely underestimating how good Crochet is.

I know I am in the minority but I'd be fine with Holliday + Norby + some lesser piece for Crochet.

 

Thats wild to me but I understand we have different senses of urgency.

Pretty hard to support opinion, Jeremy. Crochet is clearly superior to our #3 and beyond options. Fair to question if he's worth what it'll take to acquire especially since he's likely gonna be limited in innings down the stretch, but not fair to question if he's better than Cade Povich. He is. And by a lot.

100% in on extending Burnes but not possible until the off-season.

Yeah I mean the 2012 WCG and 2014 ALDS prove that playoff series aren't just magically decided by the better rotation every time but I'd still certainly prefer not spending a second straight year hoping #3 starter Dean Kremer wins you a World Series 

Seems easy to me to come up with packages that start with Kjerstad and end up with us getting Crochet. Some, maybe most will call these overpays.

Kjerstad and choose 3
Norby or Beavers
McDermott or DeLeon
Bradfield or Etzel

There’s something to work with there. You can play around with it but the bottom line is that Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo are off limits.

 

Kjerstad, Norby, Bradfield, and McDermott comes out about even in the fake trade machine. 

Since we have no frame of reference regarding how the new majority owners will spend, I have to use the old ownership model for right now. In that model, Santander is gone. He'll be heavily courted by teams with traditionally deeper pockets. So I have to expect that his roster spot will free up next year. But even if money isn't an issue, allocating his salary toward retaining/replacing Burnes, is the better use of those funds. After all, that's what these trade scenarios are in aide of, adding a noteworthy pitcher for this fall, and the next couple of seasons. At $7.5M, O'Hearn will be back in '25.

I'll be honest and admit I didn't really know anything about Crochet besides what's been written in this thread.

 

Boy was I in for a surprise to see Crochet's numbers! I would not have anticipated to see strikeouts and FIP in bold on baseball-reference (meaning he leads the league!) based on what Jeremy wrote.

 

The innings factor certainly seems of great concern, though.

Kjerstad, Norby, Bradfield, and McDermott comes out about even in the fake trade machine.

Ha. I’ve seen plenty of posters reference it but I’ve never been on it. Interesting.

That’s certainly a trade that hurts some from our perspective but even worst case scenario where Crochet never throws another pitch, that’s a trade that won’t kill us.

Ha. I’ve seen plenty of posters reference it but I’ve never been on it. Interesting.

 

Business expense for the podcast so feel free to ask if you want to know what it says about anything haha.

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You’re right and you’re wrong. Garrett Crochet is great through the first half of the season and he’s as talented as Corbin Burnes. Is he going to continue being great and durable? Who knows? Crochet guarantees you nothing. You could start Burnes, Crochet, and GRod and get swept. He only increases your chances. But you’re severely underestimating how good Crochet is.

I tend to not like CHW pitchers for some reason. Never liked Rodon. Cease was super overrated for me. Wouldn't have traded that potential package for him either. Crochet is tricky cause on the surface his stats are like shiny new lexus, but the limited innings he has overall terrifies me.

 

It's like when you have a new pitcher the league hasn't seen yet, they'll get one time around the league and have GREAT numbers. But the second time teams see them...they start to get it. The third time, they've got a book on them and the production starts to wane. I worry that A) like Mackus said, this year the innings limit is going to mean he won't be a playoff hero like we hope, and I worry once teams have seen him more he'll be more the #3 starter.

 

And yeah I get it's compared to THIS year's #3 starter, so low bar there. But i just get bad vibes when I look at his savant page.

 

https://baseballsava...-r-pitching-mlb

 

His 55% 4 seem percentage worries me. Really he's a 2.5 pitch pitcher. I think he could end up being one of the games most dominant closers at the end of the day, but I think the league catches up to him sooner than later and would rather it not be with us. Also the barrel % is a little troubling and I know that is a big deal for Bal.

I was on the Cease is overrated train this offseason as well but he’s been fantastic for the Padres. I was wrong on that one even tho I still prefer Burnes if they only could have one/the price.