23 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

The Baltimore Orioles (29-19) are heading back out on the road, for a 9 game series vs. the division. The first stop is north of the border, vs. the Toronto Blue Jays (24-24).

1) The Adam Jones extension provided some distraction to the fact the O’s just loss back-to-back home series vs. Boston, and Kansas City. It is important for Baltimore to get right back on the winning track. The O’s enter this series 14-9 vs. the East, and 15-6 on the road. This will be the 3rd series of the year vs. the Jays, and the 2nd trip to the Rogers Centre. Baltimore has won 5 of the 6 games played between the teams so far, and holds a 5 game lead on 4th place Toronto. You want to see those trends continue.

2) Hunter will start Monday night. He enters 2-2, with a 5.07 era. In his 55 innings, he has allowed 60 hits, 11 hr’s, 14 bb’s, with 31 k’s. His OPS against is .817, and his G/F is 0.93. His start against Boston was not horrible, but he was provided with a 5-2 lead, and coughed it up. Hunter’s spot in the rotation is the most vulnerable as Britton is about to push his way back on to the roster. Will be interesting to see how Hunter responds to that challenge. This will be his 3rd start vs. the Jays this year. After allowing 4 homers in Toronto, he came back to beat the Jays in Baltimore.

3) On the home-stand, Davis had 3 hr’s, 3 multi-hit games, and a double. His OPS is up to .852. He strikes out too much (44 times), and does not walk enough (7), but I wonder if he should be moved-up while he is in another of his his hot-streaks?

4) Markakis has hits in 8 of the last 10 games, including 4 multi-hit games. His OPS is .806, and he is on pace for 41 doubles, and 27 homers. His bat seems built for Rogers Centre with his ability to use all fields, and those large alleys. There are 37 games until the All-Star break. I want to see Markakis catch fire, and earn his way to his first All-Star game.

5) Arrieta takes the mound Tuesday. He is 2-5, with a 4.87 era (4.01 FIP). In 61 ip, he has allowed 62 hits, 9 hr’s, 16 bb’s, with 53 k’s. His OPS against is .729, and his G/F is 0.90.

This will be Arrieta’s 6th start of May. His previous 5 have been:
5/2 @ NYY: 8 ip, 5 hits, 0 er, 0 bb’s, 9 k’s
5/8 vs. TEX: 6.1 ip, 9 hits, 6 er, 3 hr’s, 1 bb, 3 k’s
5/13 vs. TB: 3.2 ip, 10 hits, 7 er, 2 bb’s, 6 k’s
5/18 @ DC: 7 ip, 6 hits, 1 er, 1 hr, 1 bb, 9 k’s
5/23 vs. BOS: 5.2 ip, 8 hits, 4 er, 1 hr, 3 bb’s, 2 k’s

The starts vs. the Yankees, and Nationals were awesome. His most recent start vs. Boston was livable. His starts vs. the Rangers and Rays were poor. We continue to talk about wanting to see positive consistency from him. To me, when you see how high his ceiling is in those starts vs. NY and DC; you feel like he should be capable of a quality start nearly every time out. However, does anyone have concrete opinions on the results we will see from Arrieta Tuesday? This will be his first start vs. Toronto this year.

6) Avery was 1 for 13 vs. the Royals. He is 1 for 11 against LHP, and has clearly looked overwhelmed vs. lefties several times. If he is out of the lineup Tuesday against Romero, who is LF? Wouldn’t figure to be Flaherty, as he also bats lefty. Betemit is a switch-hitter, but does not hit lefties. You could go with Tolleson in LF, but that probably means Betemit at 3rd. I think I would probably play Avery in LF, just to have another OF who could run in that big OF, and play Tolleson at 3rd.

7) Jones enters the series with hits in 18 consecutive games. He has hits in 43 of the O’s 48 games overall. He has a .944 OPS, with 10 doubles, 2 triples, 14 homers, and 31 rbi. His UZR/150 is currently 13.9. By any measure, he is having a great season. However, in the O’s 19 losses, he has had just 3 rbi. He has to continue to produce, for this team to win.

8) After going 5.0, and 5.1 innings in his first two outings after being skipped, Hammel pitched 6 innings, and threw over 100 pitches (he had throw 94, and 95 in those previous outings) Friday. MASN reported during that game Friday, that his knee was improving due to conditioning in the pool. For the year, Hammel is now 6-1, with a 2.78 era. In his 55 ip, he has allowed 45 hits, 3 hr’s, 17 bb’s, with 53 k’s. His OPS against is .607, and his G/F is 1.32. As the O’s prepare to enter June, he has become the ace of the staff. I’m looking for the start that eliminates all questions about his knee, and cements that he is the guy you want to nail down a division series on the road.

9) Wieters had a walk, a hit, and some better ab’s the last couple of days vs. KC. Still, he has just 3 hits in his last 10 games and is batting .232. We understand he has been banged up, but this lineup needs him to produce, and it is important that he does on this road trip.

10) Johnson pitched 0.2 ip of an inning Sunday, and was off Friday and Saturday.
Strop was off Sunday, and pitched an inning Saturday.
Ayala went an inning Saturday, and was off Sunday.
O’Day went a combined 2.1 innings Saturday and Sunday.
Eveland went an inning Friday.
Patton pitched 1 inning Sunday.
Gregg did not pitch vs. KC.
Unfortunately Pomeranz suffered an oblique injury Sunday, and will be heading to the DL.

Projected Pitchers:
5/28: Hunter vs. Hutchison
5/29: Arrieta vs. Romero (LHP)
5/30: Hammel vs. Morrow

Hutchison: 3-2, 5.73 era, 37.2 ip, 44 hits, 5 hr’s, 14 bb’s, 27 k’s, .831 OPS against, 0.72 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texas...pitcher/571800/

Romero: 5-1, 3.86 era, 65.1 ip, 48 hits, 6 hr’s, 37 bb’s, 49 k’s, .667 OPS against, 1.20 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texas...pitcher/460069/

Morrow: 5-3, 3.47 era, 62.1 ip, 47 hits, 7 hr’s, 20 bb’s, 54 k’s, .642 OPS against, 0.77 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texas...pitcher/453344/

C: Arenciba .749 OPS
1st: Gomes 22 ab’s
2nd: Johnson .761 OPS
SS: Escobar .651 OPS
3rd: Lawrie .681 OPS
RF: Bautista .790 OPS
CF: Rasmus .709 OPS
LF: Thames .657 OPS
DH: Encarnacion .906 OPS

Bench: Mathis, Vizquel, Davis, Cooper
Rotation: Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Drabek, Hutchinson
Bullpen: Janssen, Cordero, Oliver, Frasor, Villanueva, Perez, Igarashi

Current Ranks:

Toronto
Runs: 5th
Batting Average: 25th
On Base: 23rd
Slugging: 11th
ERA: 21st
Quality Starts: 14th
WHIP: 24th
BAA: 11th

Baltimore
Runs: 8th
Batting Average: 15th
On Base: 21st
Slugging: 5th
ERA: 10th
Quality Starts: 17th
WHIP: 9th
BAA: 13th

[RShack]

Chris, it's obvious that you put a lot of work into these things.

does anyone have concrete opinions on the results we will see from Arrieta Tuesday? This will be his first start vs. Toronto this year.

When I stop and think about it, it's amazing to me that any SP can be good on a reliable basis. On every pitch, they have to do a zillion little physical things exactly right, they have to repeat it the exact same way every time, and they have to be self-aware enough to pick up on any little thing they're not doing exactly right and correct whatever it is... and they have to do all that while figuring out how to pitch to the guy in the box. Even if they completely trust the C's pitch selection and his target, they still have to decide exactly how much to go in or out, or up or down, and whether to change the speed just a tad, and etc., etc. And they have to do all that without thinking too much.

If I didn't see it happen everyday, I wouldn't think it was possible.

So, given all that, I have absolutely no clue how good or not-good Jake might be on Tuesday. If anybody does know, I hope they will clue me in

[SportsGuy]

With the way Hunter is giving up homers, it may not be pretty tonight.

[SportsGuy]

Toronto has lost 5 in a row.

[Ovechkin8]

O's need to find a way to tread water on this trip. Looks like Reynolds will replace Pomeranz sometime today. If we can go 4-5 on this trip I'd be satisfied. I fear a 2-7 trip and major panic in O's land.

[Tyler Bingaman]

O's need to find a way to tread water on this trip. Looks like Reynolds will replace Pomeranz sometime today. If we can go 4-5 on this trip I'd be satisfied. I fear a 2-7 trip and major panic in O's land.

This sums up my exact thoughts as well.

[BSLChrisStoner]

On the first game of a 9 game road trip vs. divisional foes; the Baltimore Orioles lost 6-2 in Toronto. With the loss, the Orioles have dropped 5 of their last 7 games, and fall to 29-20 on the year.

The Good:

1) Davis singled into RF to begin the 3rd.

2) Reynolds walked in his first plate appearance since coming off the DL. He would single in the 7th. Reynolds added a 2nd hit, with an RBI double to deep CF in the 9th.

3) Andino walked in the 3rd. He singled up the middle in the 5th.

4) Hardy walked to load the bases in the 3rd.

5) Eveland was effective in relief, pitching 4 scoreless innings.

6) After striking out during his first 3 ab's, Avery led off the 8th with a walk.

7) Gregg pitched a scoreless 8th.

8) Jones extended his hitting streak, with a single to RF in the 9th. He ran down a shot from Thames into the LCF alley in the 7th.

9) Wieters singled up the middle in the 9th.

10) Betemit helped the O's avoid being shut-out, singling up the middle, knocking in Jones in the 9th.

The Bad:

1) Avery struck out 3 times. His 2nd k coming in the 3rd, with 2 on, and 1 out.

2) Batting with the bases loaded and 2 out in the 3rd; Markakis grounded back to Hutchison.

3) The O's were down 4-0, with 1 out in the 4th when Wieters came to the plate. Toronto had a pronounced shift against him. At that point, I think the O's needed base runners. Toronto was effectively giving Wieters 1st, if he wanted to drop anything towards the 3rd base side. He did not even need to bunt, if he punched anything towards 3rd, he would have reached. Considering he has not had an XBH since the 15th, I don't think the argument of 'taking the bat out of his hands' holds.

4) The O's managed just 3 hits in 7 innings vs. Hutchison, striking out 9 times vs. the RHP.

5) Hardy and Markakis were a combined 0 for 7.

The Ugly:

1) Just a horrible, non-competitive start from Hunter tonight. He allowed a Johnson double to begin the Toronto 1st. That was followed by a Rasmus single, which had Hunter and the O's quickly down 1-0. Toronto got their lead off man on in the 2nd as well, as Cooper singled to LCF. Mathis followed Cooper with a single of his own. Hunter was not helped with the Davis error in the 3rd, but he hurt himself by leaving the ball out over the plate to Encarnacion. The 4th started with Hunter going full to Vizquel, and allowing a single to RF. Johnson would follow with a HR to deep CF, ending Hunter's night. 3 ip, 9 hits, 2 hr's, 5 er, 0 bb's, 0 k's. Still like what Hunter could provide out of the pen, but hopefully it will be awhile until he starts again.

2) After singling to begin the 3rd, Davis advanced to 2nd on Reynolds' walk. He would get picked off at 2nd, which really altered the inning for the O's. The bottom of the 3rd saw another significant Davis mistake. Bautista grounded to Hardy, and should have been out to begin the inning. Davis did not come up with the throw, and was charged with an error. Encarnacion would follow with a 2 run homer.

This is probably the 4th or 5th time we have seen Davis not come up with a ball at 1st, that he should have had.

[fan4life]

what's our best RH lineup against Romero tonight?

Andino
Nick
JJ
Adam
Matt
Reynolds
Wilson?
Tollerson?


Who plays LF if Chavez is called up and Avery is kept or sent down? I suppose Tolleson can play LF, then who plays 3b or DH opposite Reynolds?

[waroriole]

Lefties hit much better off Romero than righties. Definitely get Nick Johnson in there. I'd do:

1B Reynolds
DH Johnson
3B Tolleson
LF Chavez

[JeffLong]

Why are we taking Chris Davis out of the lineup exactly?

He's arguably our 2nd best hitter: .306/.343/.510

[SportsGuy]

Why are we taking Chris Davis out of the lineup exactly?

He's arguably our 2nd best hitter: .306/.343/.510

658 OPS vs lefties this year....602 last 3 years total.

[fan4life]

Why are we taking Chris Davis out of the lineup exactly?

He's arguably our 2nd best hitter: .306/.343/.510

658 OPS vs lefties this year....602 last 3 years total.

Who plays 1b. Reynolds?

[SportsGuy]

658 OPS vs lefties this year....602 last 3 years total.

Who plays 1b. Reynolds?

They could still play Davis but I tend to doubt it...Reynolds to first makes the most sense IMO.

[JeffLong]

Why are we taking Chris Davis out of the lineup exactly?

He's arguably our 2nd best hitter: .306/.343/.510

658 OPS vs lefties this year....602 last 3 years total.

True, but Romero has a .341 wOBA against lefties, .279 against righties

[SportsGuy]

Betemit starts in LF tonight. UGHHH!

[bnickle]

Betemit starts in LF tonight. UGHHH!

We really need to find a decent LF somehow, someway. It's as bad if not worse than 3b at this point. Going with Betemit and Chavez every night will make me puke, especially Betemit out there vs lefties. At the very least go get a RH guy that is average defensively out there and can hit LHP a bit.

Also, Davis is in the lineup as DH.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The Baltimore Orioles lost 8-6 in Toronto tonight, dropping their 4th consecutive game, and 3rd consecutive series. With the loss, the O's are now 29-21 on the year.

The Good:

1) Arrieta had a good first. Got 94 past Johnson on 2-0, and would induce a ground out. Struck out Escobar on a low and away pitch. Started Bautista off with a curve for a strike, and finished him off with another. The Jays had runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out in the 3rd, and Arrieta was able to limit the damage - getting a ground out from Escobar, and Bautista to pop out.

2) Jones provided the O's with a 1-0 lead in the 2nd, going opposite field for his 15th hr. In the 4th, he walked. He singled in the 6th, and walked in the 7th. He concluded a perfect offensive night with a 2 run homer deep to left in the 9th.

3) Davis singled off the 5th, and crushed a 2 run homer to the opposite field in the 6th. In the 8th, he hit a broken bat single into LCF.

4) Andino lined a single into CF in the 5th.

5) Coming in for Wieters, Paulino doubled in his first ab in the 6th.

6) It is rare for the mic to capture discussions between a Manager and Umpires. Tonight it did. Kudos to Showalter for how he stood up for Wieters.

7) After reliving Arrieta, Gonzalez struck out Arencibia to begin his Major League career. Gonzalez would go 3.1 ip overall, and strike out 5, while allowing just 1 er. Nice job of stopping the bleeding and providing innings.

8) Tolleson blooped a single into RF in the 7th. Earlier in the game he was robbed by Lawrie.

9) Markakis doubled into deep RCF in the 7th.

10) Reynolds had a single and an RBI.

11) Hardy singled in the 9th.

The Bad:

1) R. Davis' liner into LF in the 5th, got past Betemit and allowed Cooper and Davis to both get into scoring position. In the 6th another ball from Bautista got past Betemit.

2) Betemit was 0 for 3, with 2 k's vs. Romero. He also struck out vs. Oliver. He looks brutal from the RH side.

3) Hardy grounded out with 2 on, and 2 out in the 5th.

4) Jones walked to load the bases in the 7th. Would have liked to have had Wieters available in that situation.

5) As the poster 'SammyBirdland' pointed out in the Game thread, the O's could have PH for Betemit in the 8th. Betemit was batting with 2 on, and none out, and facing the lefty Oliver. With Betemit's RH struggles, Chavez could have batted and sacrificed the two runners over. Chavez would PH for the next hitter Tolleson, and hit into a fielders choice as the Jays made the play on Davis at 2nd. Reynolds had advanced to 3rd. Chavez would subsequently steal 2nd, bringing up Andino with 2 out, and the two runners in scoring position. Andino would strike out, ending the inning. I think that was a situation which called for Johnson to PH.

6) Since being hit in the left wrist Friday night, Markakis has gone 5 for 22. Maybe just a coincidence, but he was shaking his wrist in the 9th tonight.

The Ugly:

1) After Lawrie and Cooper led off the 3rd with singles, Davis attempted a bunt. Arrieta fielded it, and threw it past Andino at 1st. This allowed Lawrie to score, made all the worse, because there was no play to be had on Davis. In the 4th, he walked Arencibia, giving the Jays 2 on with 1 out. In the 5th, Arrieta walked Bautitsa to lead off the inning, after Arrieta had been up in the count 0-2. That was followed by a walk to Encarnacion. Another poor start from Arrieta which drives you mad. Even when he is bad, he flashes his stuff. The inconsistency from batter to batter, and inning to inning is tough to explain. I still want him to stay in the rotation though, as I see nobody internally to push him out. His ceiling (as shown in the starts vs. NY, and DC this month) is too high to take out of the rotation, no matter how annoying he can be start to start. If he becomes the 5th starter, that is disappointing, but not many teams will have a 5th with his ability. You have to keep putting him out there hoping he can lock into some positive consistency. 4.1 ip, 6 hits, 6 er, 3 bb's, 5 k's. He threw 96 pitches, 56 for strikes. Toronto hitters had 5 grounders against him.

2) Jones made a nice run in on the ball to get to Cooper's shallow pop-fly into CF in the 4th, but dropped a ball he should have had. This allowed Lawrie to advance to 3rd.

[Adam Wolff]

Safe to say the team is in the midst of it's first swoon of the season. It happens to every single team, how do you respond?

After being down 8-1, they battled back to make it interesting, which is encouraging. Jake just has to be better. If you would have told me a few weeks into the season that he'd have a higher ERA than Matusz on June 1st, I'd have been floored. He's just not getting it done right now and it's unacceptable.

[Luke Jackson]

The most aggravating thing about this game was Wilson Betemit hacking away at the first pitch from Janssen, who couldn't throw consecutive strikes to save his life.

[Luke Jackson]

Well, the most worrisome and noteworthy thing was Jake. But the Betemit AB was the most aggravating.