Here's a example of why I'm not taking a RB in the first round. Even with the first overall pick.
This is based on standard PPR scoring on NFL.com. Listed are the top six RBs, followed by the top six QBs and WRs in fantasy points each year.
2013
Charles 361
McCoy 335
Forte 331
Moreno 265
Lynch 257
QBs - Peyton, Brees, Dalton, Rivers, Stafford
WRs - Gordon, D. Thomas, A. Brown, Green, C. Johnson
2012
Peterson 387
Martin 322
Foster 301
Lynch 280
Rice 264
QBs - Brees, Brady, Peyton, Rodgers, Ryan
WRs - C. Johnson, Marshall, Bryant, Green, A. Johnson
2011
Rice 370
McCoy 327
Foster 306
Sproles 303
Jones-Drew 292
QBs - Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Newton
WRs - C. Johnson, Welker, Nelson, Cruz, Harvin
2010
Foster 388
McCoy 284
C. Johnson 280
Peterson 278
McFadden 272
QBs - Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Vick, Rivers
WRs - White, Bowe, Lloyd, Jennings, Wayne
From 2010 to 11, two of the top six RBs repeated similar performance. From 2011 to 12, two did. From 2012 to 13, just one. The trends say that at least three of Charles, McCoy, Moreno, Lynch, Forte, won't crack the top five in RB points. So why roll the dice? Even Peterson was an easy #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft after his 2012 season. He scored 244 last year. A 143 point drop off from the year before. Some folks probably wish they didn't waste that pick on him.
The surest bets, draft Megatron or A.J. Green, then either Manning or Brees while most folks still think you have to get RB early and end up with a bust. This is optimal if your in the mid to late draft slots. If you have the second pick it'll be hard to see Manning or Brees come back to you late in the second. Maybe Rodgers is there which is just as good...better if he didn't get hurt last year. You should take sure things with your first picks, and RBs are far from sure things. Even the elite like Peterson.
I'm starting a revolution. Say no to drafting RBs in the first two rounds! With so many teams going to a committee approach, it just means more RB options are available in season if you keep your eyes open. Ryan Matthews was an early draft pick last year and was the 10th highest scoring RB. His teammate, Danny Woodhead, was likely undrafted or drafted very late. He caught 76 balls and scored eight TDs, only had 13 less points than Matthews.
Wait until Round 3 to get your Ray Rice, Ben Tate, Toby Gerhart, who all have a chance to be one of those top 5 backs in 2014.
I'm sticking to this strategy in my three drafts this year. We'll see how it goes.