20 replies to this topic

[bhrusty]

So, for those of you who are big fans of the draft Sickles is doing his annual Mock draft (3 rounds) over on minorleagueball. I just took over the Orioles GM spot so I'm going to be looking for input for each round.

For the first round I am leaning heavily toward Appel if he is available, otherwise I would like to see Correa.

In round two (assuming we take Appel) I plan to come back with a HS bat, then a college OF in the 3rd. If anyone has any imput let me know, either here or there.

[JeffLong]

I would have to think the O's preference list is currently something like Buxton, Correa, Appel, Guasman, Fried in some order.

Klaw mentioned that some scouts see Fried as a potential #1 overall pick, I'm kind of high on him as well.

Also, Giolito is in the mix assuming no setbacks for his arm.

[JeremyStrain]

This is a draft I would swing for the fences for with that #4 pick. Go for the high ceiling HS player, the college ones just really aren't that impressive to me.

[bhrusty]

My logic on Appel. He has decent upside, but his selling point is that he has a higher floor than any other pitcher in the draft. I don't believe Buxton will be available at #4, and just don't see the Orioles taking Correa if Appel is there. Appel slots in as a solid #2 behind Bundy (best case) in 2014.

[JeremyStrain]

My logic on Appel. He has decent upside, but his selling point is that he has a higher floor than any other pitcher in the draft. I don't believe Buxton will be available at #4, and just don't see the Orioles taking Correa if Appel is there. Appel slots in as a solid #2 behind Bundy (best case) in 2014.

I hope Buxton won't be there because I'm not a huge fan. (just a personal preference thing) But I would take Correa over Appel. While I do like Appel, I'm just not in love with him, and I think a high ceiling HS kid matches up better where our system is right now.

[bhrusty]

I think that is where I disagree. Bundy, Machado, Schoop are all probably 2014 arrivals (assuming they progress) so a college pitcher would match up better with that group. I've seen Zimmer as a popular pick here as well, but I'm not as sold.

FWIW I have the draft going Buxton, Zunino, Correa atm, leaving the Orioles picking from guys like Appel, Zimmer, Giolito, Gausman and Wacha.

The risk w/ Giolito, both w/injuries and the new pay structure takes him off my list, and I rank the rest of the top pitchers Appel, Gausman, Wacha, Zimmer.

I would take Correa or Buxton if Appel is gone.

If the Orioles do wind up with a HSer in the first I think a college bat that is a reliable signing would have to be the priority in the 2nd and maybe the 3rd. If they take a college pitcher in the 1st I could see them going for someone like Foody (high upside LHP) in the second before addressing the dearth of hitting in the system.

[JeremyStrain]

I think that is where I disagree. Bundy, Machado, Schoop are all probably 2014 arrivals (assuming they progress) so a college pitcher would match up better with that group. I've seen Zimmer as a popular pick here as well, but I'm not as sold.

FWIW I have the draft going Buxton, Zunino, Correa atm, leaving the Orioles picking from guys like Appel, Zimmer, Giolito, Gausman and Wacha.

The risk w/ Giolito, both w/injuries and the new pay structure takes him off my list, and I rank the rest of the top pitchers Appel, Gausman, Wacha, Zimmer.

I would take Correa or Buxton if Appel is gone.

If the Orioles do wind up with a HSer in the first I think a college bat that is a reliable signing would have to be the priority in the 2nd and maybe the 3rd. If they take a college pitcher in the 1st I could see them going for someone like Foody (high upside LHP) in the second before addressing the dearth of hitting in the system.

Yeah, but see in the MLB you can't draft for need, which is basically what you are doing. I'll give you that Bundy, Manny and Schoop SHOULD be hitting the ML by 2014 (2/3 before that I think) Wieters, Jake and Matusz are under control through 15. So if you are just STARTING the clock in 2014 for the other 3, you don't want them all hitting at the same time or you will never be able to afford them later. You either want a year before or after, a top HS arm (there's only one really this year, but an argument can be made for Fried) could split A-/A+ next year, AA in 14 and the ML in 15 to replace departing players.

It's more about keeping a steady flow of players than getting them all up at the same time. If they all hit FA at the same time (like OAK tends to do) you have to tear down and rebuild when they get too close, but if they are staggered, it lets you deal with individual players one at a time which is much easier to extend/trade.

Correa is polarizing, some people have him closer to 9/10 than 3/4, HS bats are harder to project, he is why Richie Shaffer is flying up boards right now as the most complete college bat in the draft. (I think he might have a little issue with down and in, but he looked pretty impressive when I saw him).

I don't know if any of the big 3 college pitchers end up being more than a 3/4 honestly. I'm just not really sold on any of them. I see things I like, but I see a lot more that I don't like than in a normal draft. To me, it's just not worth trying to play it safe when you can develop guys like that in the 3-5th rounds. For instance, Kevin Brady might hang around until the supplemental/2nd, I would take Giolito/Stroman/Correa at #4 and then hold out hope someone like Brady drops to me in the 2nd. I'm higher on Stroman than a lot of people, but I like him more than the other 3 college guys, size or no size.

[Greg Pappas]

I think another guy that may draw attention at #4 is Almora. The kid is a leader, a hard-worker, and just an excellent baseball player. Like you allstar, I'm a bit higher on a guy than most, though I tend to believe you're sticking your neck out farther than I am (Stroman.) What are your thoughts on Almora? I have him at #2 on my overall best players board.

[JeremyStrain]

I think another guy that may draw attention at #4 is Almora. The kid is a leader, a hard-worker, and just an excellent baseball player. Like you allstar, I'm a bit higher on a guy than most, though I tend to believe you're sticking your neck out farther than I am (Stroman.) What are your thoughts on Almora?

Yeah definitely have my head on the block on Stroman, but he's hands down got the best stuff in the draft and the ONLY question is because of the height. If he were 6'3 he's the no. 1 pick, period. I'm trying to get away from the traps we fall in year to year and ignore that one fault and take a risk, it's a lot easier to do in a down year. Like I can say I probably would have taken Lincecum over Rowell for the same reason (although I didn't follow that draft really closely).

Almora falls into the same trap for me personally as Buxton, I have a personal bias against athletic HS OF. I've seen so many "can't miss" athletic OF fall apart that I just knock them all down a peg myself. I think Almora is a little safer than Buxton, with not as high of a ceiling, but every scouting director has a bias, and mine is away from HS OF. So I'd probably have to trouble taking him if I were picking in the 8-12 range, but at 4 I would probably look elsewhere. I had the same kind of issue with Donovan Tate a few years ago if you remember, although I also had a strong feeling that baseball wasn't his first love, so I was more against Tate than I am Buxton or Almora.

[JeffLong]

Fried continues to move up boards. Right now is pretty much the undisputed top lefty in the draft.

[JeremyStrain]

Fried continues to move up boards. Right now is pretty much the undisputed top lefty in the draft.

Yeah but he's also pitched pretty poorly lately. Don't know if Giolito being out has had any impact on him. I'd expect it not to, but who knows...I haven't seen him myself.

[JeffLong]

Klaw posted his first mock not too long ago: http://insider.espn....-mock-draft-mlb

First 4 were:

Appel
Buxton
Giolito
Gausman

[Greg Pappas]

Yeah definitely have my head on the block on Stroman, but he's hands down got the best stuff in the draft and the ONLY question is because of the height. If he were 6'3 he's the no. 1 pick, period. I'm trying to get away from the traps we fall in year to year and ignore that one fault and take a risk, it's a lot easier to do in a down year. Like I can say I probably would have taken Lincecum over Rowell for the same reason (although I didn't follow that draft really closely).

Almora falls into the same trap for me personally as Buxton, I have a personal bias against athletic HS OF. I've seen so many "can't miss" athletic OF fall apart that I just knock them all down a peg myself. I think Almora is a little safer than Buxton, with not as high of a ceiling, but every scouting director has a bias, and mine is away from HS OF. So I'd probably have to trouble taking him if I were picking in the 8-12 range, but at 4 I would probably look elsewhere. I had the same kind of issue with Donovan Tate a few years ago if you remember, although I also had a strong feeling that baseball wasn't his first love, so I was more against Tate than I am Buxton or Almora.

I have also had a tendency to swerve clear of the "toolsy" guy, or the "athlete" from HS, as long as the comments that accompany it are something like, "He has all the tools, and is projected to be a 5-tool all-star IF he hits his ceiling. He has struggled in the spotlight of the national all-star games, but scouts believe in his ability to be able to learn to hit the curveball." Tate was one I was hoping would miss the O's, and I typically favor HS bats... it's just that Tate just never felt "right" to me. Almora reminds me of how I felt about Eric Hosmer. I lauded Hosmer as the best player in the draft, the year he came out, and it was because I saw him as a safe HS bat with a strong likelihood of great big league success. He had "it"... same as Almora for me.

Almora is athletic, and toolsy, but is strong in all areas of his game, and has consistently shined at the highest level of competition. He is about as "safe" of a HS kid as it gets AND his ceiling for some is all-star CF'er. I am a huge believer in Almora. I hope the O's are too.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Almora is athletic, and toolsy, but is strong in all areas of his game, and has consistently shined at the highest level of competition. He is about as "safe" of a HS kid as it gets AND his ceiling for some is all-star CF'er. I am a huge believer in Almora. I hope the O's are too.

Your comments here, and the comments from Stotle in his last write-up, have me preferring Almora as the O's pick.

[JeremyStrain]

I have also had a tendency to swerve clear of the "toolsy" guy, or the "athlete" from HS, as long as the comments that accompany it are something like, "He has all the tools, and is projected to be a 5-tool all-star IF he hits his ceiling. He has struggled in the spotlight of the national all-star games, but scouts believe in his ability to be able to learn to hit the curveball." Tate was one I was hoping would miss the O's, and I typically favor HS bats... it's just that Tate just never felt "right" to me. Almora reminds me of how I felt about Eric Hosmer. I lauded Hosmer as the best player in the draft, the year he came out, and it was because I saw him as a safe HS bat with a strong likelihood of great big league success. He had "it"... same as Almora for me.

Almora is athletic, and toolsy, but is strong in all areas of his game, and has consistently shined at the highest level of competition. He is about as "safe" of a HS kid as it gets AND his ceiling for some is all-star CF'er. I am a huge believer in Almora. I hope the O's are too.

Respect your all-in on a guy that most people aren't talking a lot about, but just not for me. I hear most people talking about him in the 8-12 range, and I don't see the "safe" thing. I see just as much risk as Buxton or Starling, and he's not quite in their class. Hosmer was a special bat, no doubt, but Almora is a couple notches below that. I could see him becoming Adam Jones IF things fall right, but like I was saying for whatever reason it seems like the fail rate is so much higher with OF for me.

Another thing to watch out for with Almora and Correa even, is that this is a weak draft, and EVERY prospect gets talked about the same way year to year, that they are great, very few holes in their game...blah blah blah, but if they were REALLY that great they would be getting talked about up at no. 1 in a weak draft, and they aren't. Just hype to cut through, I guess.

[Greg Pappas]

Respect your all-in on a guy that most people aren't talking a lot about, but just not for me. I hear most people talking about him in the 8-12 range, and I don't see the "safe" thing. I see just as much risk as Buxton or Starling, and he's not quite in their class. Hosmer was a special bat, no doubt, but Almora is a couple notches below that. I could see him becoming Adam Jones IF things fall right, but like I was saying for whatever reason it seems like the fail rate is so much higher with OF for me.

Another thing to watch out for with Almora and Correa even, is that this is a weak draft, and EVERY prospect gets talked about the same way year to year, that they are great, very few holes in their game...blah blah blah, but if they were REALLY that great they would be getting talked about up at no. 1 in a weak draft, and they aren't. Just hype to cut through, I guess.

I can't really debate anything you're saying, but I will say that I didn't intend to give the impression that Almora would have Hosmer's bat... I see Almora as a .300/.360/.475 (20-25 HR) type of hitter who plays great defense in CF... and is a team leader (in time). It's funny, I almost used the Adam Jones comparison myself, but realized there were some dissimilar tools, and left him out.

I really enjoy these chats... glad to have you here.

[JeremyStrain]

I can't really debate anything you're saying, but I will say that I didn't intend to give the impression that Almora would have Hosmer's bat... I see Almora as a .300/.360/.475 (20-25 HR) type of hitter who plays great defense in CF... and is a team leader (in time). It's funny, I almost used the Adam Jones comparison myself, but realized there were some dissimilar tools, and left him out.

I really enjoy these chats... glad to have you here.

Oh yeah, didn't mean to say you were, I was rushing to get out the door this morning and kinda rushed my response. I remember how locked in you were in Hosmer, and you were absolutely right, that is exactly the kinda bat you are looking for in a HS 1B. With other HS positions I tend to have ranges of what I think is ok with the bat potential, most SS end up moving to 2B or 3B, so I'm looking for a bat that could profile at either, and if they can stick at SS it's rare and a bonus.

With OF it's a little tough because they are already on that end of the defensive spectrum, it's not like you're going to take an OF and move them to SS. You could be right on Almora, I've seen those kinds of ideal projections before...for me he's somewhere between Justin Upton and Xavier Avery, but that's about how I look at all HS OF, cause that's such a large range. I look at the competition they face in HS and just think you don't REALLY know what the bat is going to look like because they haven't seen any real good secondaries yet. The kids that DO have them in HS don't use them because the FB is enough. So you know they can hit a FB, but unless you've seen them in a large enough sample against kids with good-great curves, sliders and change ups, it's a crap shoot. You can make that same argument for ALL HS hitters, and I do to a degree, but I tend to use positional scarcity to rate players higher, and OF just don't rate too high for me. Of course thinking like that I'm going to miss out on a GG CF here and there, but I just think it's gotta be a REALLY weak draft to take kids like that in the top 5.

Like I said if we are talking about the Marlins at 9, I'm absolutely all over him, but for the O's I'd gamble on Giolito, Stroman or Correa first, and I'd put Zunino, Appel, and probably Gausman up above him too.

[Greg Pappas]

I like Correa a great deal too. Zunino has fallen a bit in my eyes, as his numbers against his SEC Conference have been pedestrian. I am concerned about Giolito's injury, as I should be, but if he shows no ill effects before the draft and is sitting there at #4, I wouldn't be disappointed with the O's taking him.

A quick list of guys I won't mind the O's taking...

Correa/Almora/Appel/Giolito (pending)/Gausman/Zimmer (pending)/Buxton

[JeremyStrain]

I like Correa a great deal too. Zunino has fallen a bit in my eyes, as his numbers against his SEC Conference have been pedestrian. I am concerned about Giolito's injury, as I should be, but if he shows no ill effects before the draft and is sitting there at #4, I wouldn't be disappointed with the O's taking him.

A quick list of guys I won't mind the O's taking...

Correa/Almora/Appel/Giolito (pending)/Appel/Gausman/Zimmer (pending)/Buxton

Yeah that's pretty much my list, but Almora and Buxton down near the bottom with Zimmer, and I don't have Appel on there twice.

[Greg Pappas]

I like Correa a great deal too. Zunino has fallen a bit in my eyes, as his numbers against his SEC Conference have been pedestrian. I am concerned about Giolito's injury, as I should be, but if he shows no ill effects before the draft and is sitting there at #4, I wouldn't be disappointed with the O's taking him.

A quick list of guys I won't mind the O's taking...

Correa/Almora/Appel/Giolito (pending)/Appel/Gausman/Zimmer (pending)/Buxton

Yeah that's pretty much my list, but Almora and Buxton down near the bottom with Zimmer, and I don't have Appel on there twice.

Fixed that, thanks. BTW, since he was mentioned, what are your current thoughts on Appel?